Well you’re wrong. The Cubs are 15th in the mlb in runs scored, tied for second in OBP and 12th in SLG.
Their starters rank 25th in ERA and 27th in FIP. The bullpen is 19th in FIP for comparison. I have no idea how you can look at this team and think the offense is the main problem.
I agree to an extent with Contreras but wouldn't be mad if they were able to find a solid deal for him. I also believe too much in prospects and think Amaya will be the guy in a year or two. I'd be totally fine with trading Hendricks. He is what he is at this point, IMO. Couple great starts every once in awhile sandwiched between a lot of "meh" starts.I am going off of the belief that
1) Stroman and Hendricks performance so far is not indicative of where they’re at in their careers.
2) Steele, Thompson, and Killian have not peaked
I do not think we have a top of the line rotation now, but I don’t think we’re far off from having one. Say, for example, we get DeGrom. I would be comfortable going into a series with DeGrom, Hendricks, and Stroman as my 3 starters.
As for the offense, I personally wouldn’t want to go into 2023 with it, but if that’s what you want, go for it.
My main argument heading into this is that I understood selling off last year. If you want to compete by 2024, you have to stop selling off at some point. Contreras and Hendricks will still be valuable players in 2024 and send a much needed message across the league that our incompetent front office is at least trying to make decisions that top 5 budget franchises do, which means extend them.
I am going off of the belief that
1) Stroman and Hendricks performance so far is not indicative of where they’re at in their careers.
2) Steele, Thompson, and Killian have not peaked
I do not think we have a top of the line rotation now, but I don’t think we’re far off from having one. Say, for example, we get DeGrom. I would be comfortable going into a series with DeGrom, Hendricks, and Stroman as my 3 starters.
As for the offense, I personally wouldn’t want to go into 2023 with it, but if that’s what you want, go for it.
My main argument heading into this is that I understood selling off last year. If you want to compete by 2024, you have to stop selling off at some point. Contreras and Hendricks will still be valuable players in 2024 and send a much needed message across the league that our incompetent front office is at least trying to make decisions that top 5 budget franchises do, which means extend them.
Hendricks is going to be 33 years old going into next season. His best days are behind him I think as he's had to be a finesse and command pitcher with a fastball that only tops out around 88. Once his velocity goes down more he really will have to be more of a command pitcher and based on what we have seen the past 2 years I'm not confident he can consistently string together a stretch of good starts anymore. Right now he's probably a 3rd or 4th starter for a contender and in the coming years probably nothing more than a 4th or 5th starter on a lot of teams that just need a guy to chew up some innings in the back end of the rotation. By the time the Cubs are at a point to compete again (don't see that being next year unless they really splurge in free agency) he's not going to be anything more than a backend of the rotation guy at best.
I'm not sold that Stroman is a top end of the rotation guy either. He keeps getting hurt and when he's been "healthy" this year he's been lit up several times. He's a career 63-65 3.71 ERA guy, is 31 now so would like to see more of the pitcher he was just a few years ago than the guy he's been lately. As for Steele, Thompson, and Killian it's too early to tell and you can hope that they keep improving with more starts. At times they have looked good but with any young pitchers developing consistency and adding another pitch to the mix is going to be crucial to long term success.
I respect and value those assessments. I understand I look through rose-colored glasses. For the record, I don't think have a competitive team next year, but I absolutely believe if the cards are played right, we can have that team in 2024.
In my opinion, the cards are not being played right if you trade Contreras for a prospect. To be that team in 2024, you have to build that team before 2024, and it can't all be farm-based. Extend Contreras, let FA's know you aren't pinning all hopes on the farm. Contreras is worth the $20 AAV he is reportedly seeking.
In regards to Hendricks, who was a "lightly regarded prospect" much like Steele and Thompson, in trading him, my guess is you will be getting in return...a lightly regarded prospect. He had a 3.77 ERA before the sell-off last year and finished the second half with a 6.16 ERA. The world knew the Cubs would suck this year. I'm going to guess the mental drainage of a sell-off and "rebuild" have done more to hurt his pitching than his age. He is not a power arm, so typically you see guys like him last longer. I don't think he's physically expired at 32 years old, I think last July he looked around the diamond and thought he was sent to Des Moines.
If I had any power whatsoever, I'd go forth with this plan:
C - Contreras ($20 Million)/Amaya
1B - Hosmer ($13 Million)
2B - Madrigal (Cheap)
SS - Boegarts ($30 Million)
3B - Wisdom (Cheap)
OF - Davis (Cheap)
OF - PCA (Cheap)
OF - Suzuki ($17 Million)
Happ, Morel, Hoerner, Alcantara become your super utilities, all cheap. In total, you're probably looking at $100-110 million for your offense.
Hendricks and Stroman are the only ones eating at your SP salary ($40 million, combined) taking the rest of your pitching staff, I would assume they're making a combined $30 million, if we're being generous? (not including those coming off the books this year) so I would assume you're looking at roughly $40 million in spending on pitchers before even worrying about the luxury tax.
Is that lineup for next year? If PCA is Pete-Crow Armstrong, he has a .696 OPS in high A. Brennan Davis has an OPS under .600 in AAA. How do you have those guys starting over Happ? And why pay Hosmer? He's not worth that money and on the down side of his career.
Wisdom is a guy who might have some decent trade value too. He's 30 but still has four cheap years of team control left, now has a solid year and half of good offensive production. I'd be listening to offers for him.
No, that lineup would be 2024 based on prospects. FAs would be this year.
I wouldn’t hate getting rid of Wisdom. I’m not tied to the guy. I just wouldn’t trade him for a 28 year old who hasn’t touched AA and has been a reliever the last 6 years.
As for Hosmer, $13 million is nothing in this league. I’d trade for him for 2 reasons
1) You would get a decent prospect as well
2) You are getting a vet who wouldn’t provide some production for this team as opposed to throwing darts like Rivas and Schwindel and hoping they stick
The way I look at it, he’d be on the books next year, which is probably a wash, and then the following year, when Heyward is gone and the luxury tax will be $237 million, so his $13 million will hardly cause a dent.
You are leaving a lot of faith that all these prospects pan out too. Gotta see Davis healthy before I buy in that he is the real deal because he was off to a slow start at AAA this year when he got hurt. PCA sure is tearing things up right now but still has a ways to go to get to Chicago. Don't forget about Canario in AA right now either as he could factor into the mix too at some point. Got a lot of options coming up in the OF that hopefully a couple of them hit the ground running when they get the chance.
I think this is an area you and I agree on, just have different philosophies of where to go from here. I think right now we have a stockpile of prospects. I'm not sure what the benefit of trading Contreras is, given it sounds like his demands are more realistic than anyone from last year, and is it really worth adding another prospect that we don't know will pan out? At what point do top talents say they'll take a couple million less to not rebuild with the Cubs and bank on prospects and instead go play for a contender? And if Amaya pans out, you can always move Contreras to the OF as he gets older, he can play DH, he's very versatile compared to most catchers.
As for banking on prospects to deliver, I'm not all-in on the ones listed. I do feel good that one of Davis, PCA, Alcantara, and Caissie will pan out for our outfield. I feel good that one of Hernandez, Triantos, Howard, Preciado, and Made will pan out. I appreciate how wide the net is we've caste, but we need not make it wider. You can start building your 2024 team now, or you can wait until 2024 and see what prospects have worked out.
Having a .700 OPS in a league where he is more than 2 years younger than the average player, isn’t all that bad. Also considering many people say he would play gold glove defense in CF RIGHT NOW, penciling him into the 2024 lineup doesn’t sound so outlandish.Is that lineup for next year? If PCA is Pete-Crow Armstrong, he has a .696 OPS in high A. Brennan Davis has an OPS under .600 in AAA. How do you have those guys starting over Happ? And why pay Hosmer? He's not worth that money and on the down side of his career.
Wisdom is a guy who might have some decent trade value too. He's 30 but still has four cheap years of team control left, now has a solid year and half of good offensive production. I'd be listening to offers for him.
Having a .700 OPS in a league where he is more than 2 years younger than the average player, isn’t all that bad. Also considering many people say he would play gold glove defense in CF RIGHT NOW, penciling him into the 2024 lineup doesn’t sound so outlandish.
Have a tough time seeing Morel & Hoerner as utility players. Also until Madrigal hits as a Cub, not sure where he fits. He doesn't seem like a utility type.I respect and value those assessments. I understand I look through rose-colored glasses. For the record, I don't think have a competitive team next year, but I absolutely believe if the cards are played right, we can have that team in 2024.
In my opinion, the cards are not being played right if you trade Contreras for a prospect. To be that team in 2024, you have to build that team before 2024, and it can't all be farm-based. Extend Contreras, let FA's know you aren't pinning all hopes on the farm. Contreras is worth the $20 AAV he is reportedly seeking.
In regards to Hendricks, who was a "lightly regarded prospect" much like Steele and Thompson, in trading him, my guess is you will be getting in return...a lightly regarded prospect. He had a 3.77 ERA before the sell-off last year and finished the second half with a 6.16 ERA. The world knew the Cubs would suck this year. I'm going to guess the mental drainage of a sell-off and "rebuild" have done more to hurt his pitching than his age. He is not a power arm, so typically you see guys like him last longer. I don't think he's physically expired at 32 years old, I think last July he looked around the diamond and thought he was sent to Des Moines.
If I had any power whatsoever, I'd go forth with this plan:
C - Contreras ($20 Million)/Amaya
1B - Hosmer ($13 Million)
2B - Madrigal (Cheap)
SS - Boegarts ($30 Million)
3B - Wisdom (Cheap)
OF - Davis (Cheap)
OF - PCA (Cheap)
OF - Suzuki ($17 Million)
Happ, Morel, Hoerner, Alcantara become your super utilities, all cheap. In total, you're probably looking at $100-110 million for your offense.
Hendricks and Stroman are the only ones eating at your SP salary ($40 million, combined) taking the rest of your pitching staff, I would assume they're making a combined $30 million, if we're being generous? (not including those coming off the books this year) so I would assume you're looking at roughly $40 million in spending on pitchers before even worrying about the luxury tax.
I'm really hoping Ryan Theriot isn't madrigal ceiling.Have a tough time seeing Morel & Hoerner as utility players. Also until Madrigal hits as a Cub, not sure where he fits. He doesn't seem like a utility type.
I like how Ross is platooning Contreras and that might be a blueprint go forward- split time as catcher & DH.
If the Cubs are going to spend in FA, would prefer a couple SP and a big bat. Hopefully, the Cubs have enough position players developing in the minors.