So You're Saying There's A Chance - fivethirtyeight.com Projections

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TXCyclones

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Nate Silver has The Cyclones at a 17% chance to win the B12, 6% chance of making the playoffs, and 1% chance at National Championship. If we win-out it moves those numbers to 99%, 74%, and 14% respectively. (interestingly, only OU is projected ahead of us. Fun toggles to see how win/loss/win-out effect his statistics)

 

TXCyclones

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I'm curious what that 1% stands for in the conference championship race. ISU wins all of their games, including the championship, but then Bowlsby just says 'nah' and hands the trophy to someone else?
I think the "win-out" refers to the regular season. We'd still have to win the B12 Championship; thus, the -1%.
 
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mred

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I'm guessing that might be allowing for the odd situation where Baylor is tied for second with us at 8-1?
Except if Baylor and ISU are both 8-1, that means OU has at least two losses and ISU/Baylor are tied for first. I don't think there's actually a scenario where we win out and don't make the championship game. But it's possible 538 isn't handling the three-way tie properly if ISU/Baylor/OSU all win out (which ends up ISU #1, OSU #2, Baylor #3), and that's where the 1% comes from.
 

JM4CY

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I'm curious what that 1% stands for in the conference championship race. ISU wins all of their games, including the championship, but then Bowlsby just says 'nah' and hands the trophy to someone else?
Nah. He knows damn well we’d field storm his ass.
 

clone4life82

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Except if Baylor and ISU are both 8-1, that means OU has at least two losses and ISU/Baylor are tied for first. I don't think there's actually a scenario where we win out and don't make the championship game. But it's possible 538 isn't handling the three-way tie properly if ISU/Baylor/OSU all win out (which ends up ISU #1, OSU #2, Baylor #3), and that's where the 1% comes from.

agree with you here but if there was ever a team for that scenario to happen to, it’d be the clones.o_O
 

AppleCornCy

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74% chance to make CFP if we win out? That seems extremely optimistic.
Not as crazy as it seems. Just about everybody ranked ahead of us is going to lose between now and the end of the season. A lot of Big Ten East and SEC West teams still need to play each other, so that will work itself out. Our best bet would probably be if Cincy loses a game.
 

Kinch

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Except if Baylor and ISU are both 8-1, that means OU has at least two losses and ISU/Baylor are tied for first. I don't think there's actually a scenario where we win out and don't make the championship game. But it's possible 538 isn't handling the three-way tie properly if ISU/Baylor/OSU all win out (which ends up ISU #1, OSU #2, Baylor #3), and that's where the 1% comes from.
So what is the tiebreaker in a three-way. How do we go No. 1 in that case?
 

Kinch

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74% chance to make CFP if we win out? That seems extremely optimistic.
If we win out we will have won four games against Top 15 teams. We are already in the top 8 in power rankings and 538 is assuming if we keep winning we will start out ranked very high in the CFP polls.
 

motorcy90

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I think that would be a 3-way tie with Baylor and either OU/OSU at 8-1 and ISU misses the championship game.
If we are 8-1 in conference beating both OSU and OU how would we be left out considering the loss is to Baylor also 8-1?
 

Cyforce

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Except if Baylor and ISU are both 8-1, that means OU has at least two losses and ISU/Baylor are tied for first. I don't think there's actually a scenario where we win out and don't make the championship game. But it's possible 538 isn't handling the three-way tie properly if ISU/Baylor/OSU all win out (which ends up ISU #1, OSU #2, Baylor #3), and that's where the 1% comes from.
The 3 way tie at 8-1 that we aren't guaranteed a CCG spot would be OSU, ISU & Baylor.
 

cyIclSoneU

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So what is the tiebreaker in a three-way. How do we go No. 1 in that case?

If we are in a three-way tie with Baylor and Oklahoma State at 8-1, or if all three are 7-2 and Oklahoma is 9-0, it would come down to scoring differential in the games involving ISU, BU, and OSU.

OSU beat Baylor by 10, ISU beat OSU by 3, Baylor beat ISU by 2. So Oklahoma State is +7, we are +1, and Baylor is -8. How the Big 12 does it is the worst team is eliminated, and the remaining two then revert back to head to head. So Baylor gets booted at this step, and then we beat out OSU by head to head.

This is why there was chatter that Baylor fans wanted us to blow out Oklahoma State. Had we done so by 19+ to push OSU down to the worst scoring differential, OSU would have been eliminated at the score-comparison step, and Baylor would have won back at the head-to-head step over ISU.

So if we are all 8-1, the CCG would be ISU vs. OSU with ISU in home unis. If we are all 7-2 with Oklahoma in 1st, ISU would get the slot to play OU.
 

JRE1975

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The 3 way tie at 8-1 that we aren't guaranteed a CCG spot would be OSU, ISU & Baylor.

If OSU, Baylor , and ISU all win out I don't know how they would do the tie breaker because we will all three have the same record against the other teams in the conference.

I am pretty sure OU won't lose 3 games so we won't have to worry.
 

Kinch

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If we are in a three-way tie with Baylor and Oklahoma State at 8-1, or if all three are 7-2 and Oklahoma is 9-0, it would come down to scoring differential in the games involving ISU, BU, and OSU.

OSU beat Baylor by 10, ISU beat OSU by 3, Baylor beat ISU by 2. So Oklahoma State is +7, we are +1, and Baylor is -8. How the Big 12 does it is the worst team is eliminated, and the remaining two then revert back to head to head. So Baylor gets booted at this step, and then we beat out OSU by head to head.

This is why there was chatter that Baylor fans wanted us to blow out Oklahoma State. Had we done so by 19+ to push OSU down to the worst scoring differential, OSU would have been eliminated at the score-comparison step, and Baylor would have won back at the head-to-head step over ISU.

So if we are all 8-1, the CCG would be ISU vs. OSU with ISU in home unis. If we are all 7-2 with Oklahoma in 1st, ISU would get the slot to play OU.
Thanks for explaining it. good job.
 
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AppleCornCy

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The 3 way tie at 8-1 that we aren't guaranteed a CCG spot would be OSU, ISU & Baylor.
We ARE guaranteed a CCG spot in that scenario. Baylor would be eliminated due to having the worst scoring differential in games among the tied teams. Then Iowa State would have the tiebreaker over Oklahoma State due to winning head to head.

Pretty sure if we win out, we’re in no matter what.
 
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