Jamie Pollard gives further details on plans for Jack Trice Stadium in 2020

[alarson]

I am going to challenge you on that. See the link for daily deaths. We're definitely on a downward slope. I'd imagine all of these plans are based on that trend continuing. I don't necessarily trust the testing numbers because of the varying methodology of what to include. While the fatalities per day number does lag behind infections, it is the most accurate number to track.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

Your problem is looking at the whole country, which is skewed by NY getting hit especially hard early.

Look at it state by state and it becomes apparent that in most areas things are not anywhere near where they need to be yet and in many places things are still on a visibly upward trend.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

Even then, the leveling off that we have seen is *with* restrictive measures in place. Ignoring those things and going back to high risk activities is a good way to make that all for naught.

 

[agrabes]

I can appreciate Pollard's logic: Trying to enforce spacing between fans or 100% mask wearing for all fans in attendance is going to be nearly impossible. Even if you could hire thousands of ushers and have the staff necessary to enforce it, it's a pretty bad look to be physically forcing masks onto people's faces or keeping them in seats. Based on that, he basically just said "Screw it, we're going with the State's guideline of 50% capacity. That way they'll take the heat if it turns out to have been unsafe."

I just don't agree with his conclusion. The only way I could see 30,000 fans in the stands being a reasonable idea is if the level of active cases in the state is extremely low by September. I hope that happens, but it seems unlikely. We seem to be getting about 1000 new cases per week in the state right now. I think you want to see that number at 50 or less before holding large events. With a lot of things opening up, I think you'll see a modest increase for a while in case numbers.

If I were Pollard, I would have said all his reasoning and logic about the difficulties of following distancing guidelines but not given an expected number of fans to attend this fall. He's pitched it as "at least 30,000 but hopefully more". I would pitch it as "we'll let in as many as we feel we can safely, but don't expect many fans to be able to attend."

And remember, as others have said it's not about the safety of any one individual spectator. It's about keeping the number of people infected under control. If a few dozen people get sick, that's probably an acceptable risk - the price of doing business in the corona virus world. If the games touch off a massive wave of thousands of people getting infected, that's not acceptable.

 

[Clonehomer]

Your problem is looking at the whole country, which is skewed by NY getting hit especially hard early.

Look at it state by state and it becomes apparent that in most areas things are not anywhere near where they need to be yet and in many places things are still on a visibly upward trend.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

Even then, the leveling off that we have seen is *with* restrictive measures in place. Ignoring those things and going back to high risk activities is a good way to make that all for naught.

Why state by state and not county by county? Just as NY skews the national numbers, the two meat packing outbreaks skew the numbers in Iowa. Story county looks to be on the right track with 59 of the 80 cases recovered.

 

[Macloney]

I am going to challenge you on that. See the link for daily deaths. We're definitely on a downward slope. I'd imagine all of these plans are based on that trend continuing. I don't necessarily trust the testing numbers because of the varying methodology of what to include. While the fatalities per day number does lag behind infections, it is the most accurate number to track.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

You are right, there is a slight trend downward.

It has been shown that states like Florida are lying about their numbers and that trend that makes you so comfortable that this is over has been a relatively short amount of time, possibly even shorter than the original Federal guidelines for opening up, but because people are dying at a slightly less than exponential rate, we should definitely put 30,000 in one place.

 

[Cycsk]

Just remember that we all live in a Capitalist Society and Money Always WINS......The commissioners and athletic directors and just going where the money is so that their Athletic Dept's don't get financially destroyed...and frankly I would do that same thing in this time of the Novel Coronavirus.....

Very few of us can relate to someone like Pollard who is overseeing the possible demise of the athletic program he has built. I have my personal preference for what would be best for my family. However, I think he is acting brilliantly. He is getting ahead of the media in order to control the narrative. He is being forthright and earning the respect of fans. He is also leveraging the current circumstances to sell more season tickets. Pollard is one shrewd dude.

 

[alarson]

Why state by state and not county by county? Just as NY skews the national numbers, the two meat packing outbreaks skew the numbers in Iowa. Story county looks to be on the right track with 59 of the 80 cases recovered.

If anything the meat packing cases create the false impression that the peak was awhile back when those were just a blip on the upward side of the curve.

 

[cycloneG]

Why state by state and not county by county? Just as NY skews the national numbers, the two meat packing outbreaks skew the numbers in Iowa. Story county looks to be on the right track with 59 of the 80 cases recovered.

Currently, having an influx of 40,000 people over a three day period from all over the place may increase those numbers. Just a guess.

 

[CoachHines3]

way to go jared

makin another corona thread

 

[alarson]

I can appreciate Pollard's logic: Trying to enforce spacing between fans or 100% mask wearing for all fans in attendance is going to be nearly impossible. Even if you could hire thousands of ushers and have the staff necessary to enforce it, it's a pretty bad look to be physically forcing masks onto people's faces or keeping them in seats. Based on that, he basically just said "Screw it, we're going with the State's guideline of 50% capacity. That way they'll take the heat if it turns out to have been unsafe."

I just don't agree with his conclusion. The only way I could see 30,000 fans in the stands being a reasonable idea is if the level of active cases in the state is extremely low by September. I hope that happens, but it seems unlikely. We seem to be getting about 1000 new cases per week in the state right now. I think you want to see that number at 50 or less before holding large events. With a lot of things opening up, I think you'll see a modest increase for a while in case numbers.

If I were Pollard, I would have said all his reasoning and logic about the difficulties of following distancing guidelines but not given an expected number of fans to attend this fall. He's pitched it as "at least 30,000 but hopefully more". I would pitch it as "we'll let in as many as we feel we can safely, but don't expect many fans to be able to attend."

And remember, as others have said it's not about the safety of any one individual spectator. It's about keeping the number of people infected under control. If a few dozen people get sick, that's probably an acceptable risk - the price of doing business in the corona virus world. If the games touch off a massive wave of thousands of people getting infected, that's not acceptable.

Yep. He's adding 1+1 and getting 3.

When it is known that large events are a high risk of spread, and when it is accepted that there is no way to reasonably mitigate that risk, the answer is not to say '**** it, full steam ahead'. The answer is to reduce the numbers until you can reduce the risk of community spread. If that means just saying no fans altogether because they don't think they can enforce it at any number, so be it.

 

[Cyclad]

Your problem is looking at the whole country, which is skewed by NY getting hit especially hard early.

Look at it state by state and it becomes apparent that in most areas things are not anywhere near where they need to be yet and in many places things are still on a visibly upward trend.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

Even then, the leveling off that we have seen is *with* restrictive measures in place. Ignoring those things and going back to high risk activities is a good way to make that all for naught.

Exactly right.
If you take out N.Y. and Jersey the numbers are going up.
The County argument makes no sense either, due to mobility. Polk County, logically, has the most cases. I bet more fans from Polk county attend games than any other county.

 

[awd4cy]

I’ll be there this fall.

 

[agrabes]

Yep. He's adding 1+1 and getting 3.

When it is known that large events are a high risk of spread, and when it is accepted that there is no way to reasonably mitigate that risk, the answer is not to say '**** it, full steam ahead'. The answer is to reduce the numbers until you can reduce the risk of community spread. If that means just saying no fans altogether because they don't think they can enforce it at any number, so be it.

Yeah, personally I think Pollard knows all this. He's just taking a gamble here that he can keep the Athletic Department on track financially if he can let this number of people in. If it turns out that for whatever reason, the spread will not be as bad as anticipated, then he wins. If not, he's got the state to fall back on and say "Hey, we were following the rules in place at the time. The state government said this was safe."

I don't say this to be negative or cynical about Pollard, I think he's trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I do think that if late August rolls around, or even late September after a few games have been played, and it's clear that the games are having a negative impact he will lower or eliminate fans.

 

[alarson]

Yeah, personally I think Pollard knows all this. He's just taking a gamble here that he can keep the Athletic Department on track financially if he can let this number of people in. If it turns out that for whatever reason, the spread will not be as bad as anticipated, then he wins. If not, he's got the state to fall back on and say "Hey, we were following the rules in place at the time. The state government said this was safe."

I don't say this to be negative or cynical about Pollard, I think he's trying to make the best out of a bad situation. I do think that if late August rolls around, or even late September after a few games have been played, and it's clear that the games are having a negative impact he will lower or eliminate fans.

I get why he's doing it, this situation has to be awful from where he's sitting, but when the consequences of that gamble affect far beyond the ISU athletics department, there's a responsibility there to not gamble with the health of the broader community of the city and state.

 

[Cyclad]

Yep. He's adding 1+1 and getting 3.

When it is known that large events are a high risk of spread, and when it is accepted that there is no way to reasonably mitigate that risk, the answer is not to say '**** it, full steam ahead'. The answer is to reduce the numbers until you can reduce the risk of community spread. If that means just saying no fans altogether because they don't think they can enforce it at any number, so be it.

I think Jamie is an excellent AD. I think I understand why he said everything he did. This is a tough situation.
But, I think it is always a bad look to not do what is right because it is hard. I think face masks should be 100% required. Hand out free ones at the gate for those that do not have one, and make it clear they are
Required. Announce it multiple times over the PA. And yes, you need to enforce the policy. I think after game 1 it might go better. But, to think people will do the right thing is foolish. I know this would not be easy. Maybe I am crazy.

 

[agrabes]

I get why he's doing it, this situation has to be awful from where he's sitting, but when the consequences of that gamble affect far beyond the ISU athletics department, there's a responsibility there to not gamble with the health of the broader community of the city and state.

Yeah, I don't think he should either. I guess my hope is that he is gambling only his reputation - losing face if he has to back down in the future and lower the number of fans in attendance. He's just in a bad spot. You know there are a lot of people in power around him who don't feel any measures, or only very minimal measures, should be put in place.

I think Jamie is an excellent AD. I think I understand why he said everything he did. This is a tough situation.
But, I think it is always a bad look to not do what is right because it is hard. I think face masks should be 100% required. Hand out free ones at the gate for those that do not have one, and make it clear they are
Required. Announce it multiple times over the PA. And yes, you need to enforce the policy. I think after game 1 it might go better. But, to think people will do the right thing is foolish. I know this would not be easy. Maybe I am crazy.

Masks should be required. But think about the results we have seen in places that try to require masks. There have been multiple instances around the country where store employees have been threatened with violence when asking people to wear a mask in stores. There was at least one person murdered for asking someone to wear a mask. For whatever reason, some people see the idea of wearing a mask as an extremely negative thing.

He should try his best, but he's just being realistic when he says some subset of people will not do it. Maybe a long PR campaign for it would work, but I have a lot of doubts.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think face masks should be 100% required. Hand out free ones at the gate for those that do not have one, and make it clear they are Required.

I like that idea. They give away posters, towels, etc all the time. Giving away a Cy facemask seems a total no-brainer. And yep, if you give it away it's a lot easier to enforce, and people will be more likely to comply in the first place. I also think you could play up the "Iowa nice" part of it, do little ads in-game that would make it more of an esprit d'corps thing.

The downside to this (and masks in general) is eating or drinking. Which of course is going to happen. IDK, maybe you ban eating in the stadium, but rope off 4 sections in the corners as the "food court", enforce a 25% capacity there, and require anyone in those sections to be EXTRA distant.

 

[Clonehomer]

You are right, there is a slight trend downward.

It has been shown that states like Florida are lying about their numbers and that trend that makes you so comfortable that this is over has been a relatively short amount of time, possibly even shorter than the original Federal guidelines for opening up, but because people are dying at a slightly less than exponential rate, we should definitely put 30,000 in one place.

We're seeing around 50% fewer deaths nationally than we were in April. That's more than a slight trend down.

It's not like we're putting 30,000 people in stands tomorrow. We have 3 months to see what the trends do. It's a lot easier to cancel those tickets and empty stands at the last minute than it is to fill those stands. Plan for the best and if things aren't better, then change that plan.

 

[BryceC]

Good points in this thread. I would definitely prefer they hand out masks and request that people wear them. We're still months away though and nothing is written in stone.

 

[CascadeClone]

Masks should be required. But think about the results we have seen in places that try to require masks. There have been multiple instances around the country where store employees have been threatened with violence when asking people to wear a mask in stores. There was at least one person murdered for asking someone to wear a mask.

Has this happened in Iowa? I've been to Costco and Menards with their mask policy and not seen anyone without a mask and certainly no one making a fuss about it.

Have you ever seen anyone threaten violence when they took their beer away at the gate?
It could happen, but it would be very much the exception, not the rule.

Also, ISU will have security at the entrance, and in the stadium. Including police. It's not like it's some 17 year old cart wrangler at a WalMart trying to get someone to comply. It's hired security and law enforcement. If you get too drunk, too rowdy, or curse too much - you get warned, but if you still cause problems then you get thrown out of the game. They could do same with mask use.

Lastly, the AD could do all kinds of mask promotion to encourage positive peer reinforcement. Emails to each and every ticket holder, encouraging them to show the world how ISU is a family, wearing masks to protect each other. "We're all Cyclones, we're all in this together". Athletes on the video board promoting mask use. Etc etc.

I think you would have VERY few problems with enforcement. Especially for that late November game with the wind chill of -20F...

 

[Cyclad]

Yeah, I don't think he should either. I guess my hope is that he is gambling only his reputation - losing face if he has to back down in the future and lower the number of fans in attendance. He's just in a bad spot. You know there are a lot of people in power around him who don't feel any measures, or only very minimal measures, should be put in place.



Masks should be required. But think about the results we have seen in places that try to require masks. There have been multiple instances around the country where store employees have been threatened with violence when asking people to wear a mask in stores. There was at least one person murdered for asking someone to wear a mask. For whatever reason, some people see the idea of wearing a mask as an extremely negative thing.

He should try his best, but he's just being realistic when he says some subset of people will not do it. Maybe a long PR campaign for it would work, but I have a lot of doubts.

Sad commentary on our country, but you are correct. I would still make them required.