MVSU is not good...bottom line. Yet, if ISU doesn't cover, CF will panic.
ISU a 37.5 point favorite over MVSU
- Thread starter ChrisMWilliams
- Start date
+34 all day. For a team that’s gonna struggle to score, that’s a lot of points.
Yeah, I got some good tickets handed to me for that game. A woman was mad at me because I said Royce wasn't playing hard and shouldn't be in there. She said, "Well he's sick." I told her I was sorry to hear that but if he can't play he shouldn't be in there - he's hurting the team. Royce then promptly took himself out of the game and sat the rest of the game which I applauded him for. It was rough going since that meant ISU was playing without their point (forward) for the whole game.
This is my thought. If we are really as offensively challenged as many expect, it will be hard to beat anyone by that many points.
I’m most curious about which lineups CSP looks at.
Sounds like the TH, Bolton, Nixon, Jacobson, Young lineup is firmly ahead. How far are Zion, Jackson, and/or Conditt from enabling us to play small, or even bigger with Zion at the three?
Super-duper small...
Jackson/Grill
Bolton
Nixon
Haliburton
Griffin
We used to play Burton and Weiler-Babb at the 5 in the 2016-2017 season sometimes.
Those guys were so valuable in that regard.Super-duper small...
Jackson/Grill
Bolton
Nixon
Haliburton
Griffin
We used to play Burton and Weiler-Babb at the 5 in the 2016-2017 season sometimes.
We lack a small-ball four, but we really lack a guard that seems able to mix it up in the front-court. They’ve mentioned playing Haliburton there, but that seems like a stretch. Hopefully that can be Zion.
Jackson adjusting quickly would be huge. Not only does it add a shooter, it enables Haliburton to also be more of an off-ball shooter.
How about...
Jackson
Bolton
Grill/Nixon/Lewis
Haliburton
Conditt
Small ball, but with a rim protector. Is Zion a better 3P shooter than Conditt? Imo small ball benefits from additional shooting, and already concedes defense, hence Grill and Lewis.
If we go small with one big, PnR defense would favor Jacobson at the 5 imo
Good stuff. Simplifying a bit...
A basketball team can really try and do two things.
(1.) Have a "system" -- a style or personal set that you are married to and try to drill yourself to and run into the ground. That is what we did with the 4/1 last year.
(2.) "Toggle" your style and personnel for your opponent.
Both have their merits. Last year, when we had so few good posts and so many rangy wings where you could switch 1-4, it made sense to just lock onto the 4/1 style and see what we could do with it. This year is different, though.
I think we are going to fiddle a lot before the Big 12 before committing to something and, even then, I could imagine us playing a big team like KU or WVU very differently from how we are going to play a guard-heavy squad.
While people seem to be down on Nixon for his shooting, I do think he's going to give us some lineup flexibility due to his ability to create turnovers and keep guards out of the lane on the defensive end. Between drawing offensive fouls and steals he created over 3.5 TOs per game his last year at CSU. Not only will that obviously help us defensively, but getting a few extra transition opportunities each game can help offset some of sluggishness in the half-court.
NWB and Lindell put a huge strain on our bigs and help defense with their struggles keeping guards, especially the smaller, quick guys, out of the lane.
In regards to the "system" point last year, I'm not sure I'd agree it wasn't just as much due to our personnel. Lard was not available early in the year, and when he was available his foul trouble limited his minutes. Young shut it down, and Conditt wasn't probably quite ready. While the 4/1 approach may be Prohm's preference, I also don't feel like ISUs had the bigs ready to consume 50-60 minutes of playing time.
I think that was game when Hoiberg pounded on the table at the press conference afterward.
That's one element I considered — 37/5 seems like it'd need to be something like 81-43 on the high end to cover. But hey, maybe the D *is* enough of a priority ISU can shut 'em down to that level.
This is exactly how kenpom has it. A 90-56 game. Kenpom has us as the 47th best team and them as the worst team.
If we are not going to cover, then the under is a slam dunk. If we have any problems, it will be scoring, not keeping them from scoring.
