ISU vs Auburn in Big 12 SEC Challenge

  • After Iowa State won the Big 12, a Cyclone made a wonderful offer to We Will that now increases our match. Now all gifts up to $400,000 between now and the Final 4 will be matched. Please consider giving at We Will Collective.
    This notice can be dismissed using the upper right corner X button.

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,938
24,723
113
74-76 initial projection Barttorvik

Auburn favored by 2

42% win expectation for Iowa State

probably a pick or ISU favored by 1 on a neutral court

Should be a good or close game.
That's definitely not bad considering some publications have put Auburn into their "way too early top-25"!
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,875
36,692
113
Waukee
That's definitely not bad considering some publications have put Auburn into their "way too early top-25"!

Barttorvik is not buying it.

He has ISU at #57* right now and Auburn at #76. Oregon State is #75.

*that projection assumes no Bolton

Having Bolton eligible probably kicks us up 10-15 places, at least.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: isutrevman

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,938
24,723
113
Barttorvik is not buying it.

He has ISU at #57* right now and Auburn at #76. Oregon State is #75.

*that projection assumes no Bolton

Having Bolton eligible probably kicks us up 10-15 places, at least.
I mean these preseason rankings don't mean anything right now but Auburn probably should be a little better than that with some of the guys they have returning / coming in. If ISU is 42nd on that list right away I would not argue though. But that list has Seton Hall at a 27 when they will most likely be in the top 15 if not better. So some of the rankings are spotty while some could be accurate.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,875
36,692
113
Waukee
I mean these preseason rankings don't mean anything right now but Auburn probably should be a little better than that with some of the guys they have returning / coming in. If ISU is 42nd on that list right away I would not argue though. But that list has Seton Hall at a 27 when they will most likely be in the top 15 if not better. So some of the rankings are spotty while some could be accurate.

I have more trust in a more systemic computer approach than I do in sportswriters eyeballing it and introducing their own favoritism or bias, conscious or not, into the process.

Barttorvik and KenPom and the like might not be perfect, and I am sure they are going to come up with instances of being wildly incorrect with their preseason projections, but I think they are a reasonable starting point for expectations. I guarantee they are going to be better than somebody trying to sit down and rank them all from #1 to #353 themselves.

The difference between roughly #75 and Top 25 is pretty huge. I would be inclined to have them on a preseason Top 25 list is probably massively overrating them at this point. That might be a hangover of their hot run in March, but they lost a lot of talent.
 
Last edited:
  • Agree
Reactions: BigCyFan

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,938
24,723
113
I have more trust in a more systemic computer approach than I do in sportswriters eyeballing it and introducing their own favoritism or bias, conscious or not, into the process.

Barttorvik and KenPom and the like might not be perfect, and I am sure they are going to come up with instances of being wildly incorrect with their preseason projections, but I think they are a reasonable starting point for expectations. I guarantee they are going to be better than somebody trying to sit down and rank them all from #1 to #353 themselves.

The difference between roughly #75 and Top 25 is pretty huge. I would be included to have them on a preseason Top 25 list is probably massively overrating them at this point.
I completely understand and get what you're saying. But guys like Seth Davis and Jeff Goodman have a little bit more understanding about some of the teams than a computer does. And I doubt they're using their bias by putting Seton Hall in their top 15's. I use Ken Pom myself and love using it.
 

heitclone

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jun 21, 2009
15,456
12,569
113
44
Way up there
Much as I love Georges, he was better as a junior and senior than as a sophomore. His PER actually dipped from his freshman year to his sophomore, went up slightly for his junior year, and went through the roof for his senior year. He really carried the team.

He seemed to have had a rough game -- 2/8 from the field, 3 turnovers, did not draw any free throws, and only played 17 minutes. Not his best game out there.

He seemed to be in foul trouble every game that year. I can remember a couple games he didn't play much of the game but would come in and take over in crunch time. He wasn't as good overall but that was the last time we saw him in the post, he was fun to watch on the block, almost unstoppable. I think individually, he could have been a more dominant college player had he played in the post but from the team perspective (and proving he could play the 3 to NBA scouts) , I totally get why he played on the wing.
 

VeloClone

Well-Known Member
Jan 19, 2010
45,603
34,886
113
Brooklyn Park, MN
He seemed to be in foul trouble every game that year. I can remember a couple games he didn't play much of the game but would come in and take over in crunch time. He wasn't as good overall but that was the last time we saw him in the post, he was fun to watch on the block, almost unstoppable. I think individually, he could have been a more dominant college player had he played in the post but from the team perspective (and proving he could play the 3 to NBA scouts) , I totally get why he played on the wing.
He also struggled on the defensive end - which resulted in the foul trouble. They had to do something to keep him on the floor.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: heitclone

3GenClone

Well-Known Member
Jun 28, 2009
6,419
4,064
113
Des Moines
It’s awesome that Tech gets to host Kentucky. I still can’t believe we stole a win there last year - the atmosphere for that game (at least on TV) in Lubbock was electric. It’s nice to see a fan base south of Kansas actually give a damn about basketball.
 

SolarGarlic

Well-Known Member
Jan 18, 2016
5,567
8,305
113
The "myth" of Georges being the key to a Final 4 run in 2013-14 started because he had just destroyed Kansas and our first round opponent (NCCU). He wasn't great against Baylor, but his play in those high-profile games as well as the Band-Aid incident contributed to a sense that that team was destined for something special.

I don't necessarily buy it, but hard to argue we wouldn't have had a much better chance had he not been hurt.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,875
36,692
113
Waukee
The "myth" of Georges being the key to a Final 4 run in 2013-14 started because he had just destroyed Kansas and our first round opponent (NCCU). He wasn't great against Baylor, but his play in those high-profile games as well as the Band-Aid incident contributed to a sense that that team was destined for something special.

I don't necessarily buy it, but hard to argue we wouldn't have had a much better chance had he not been hurt.

If you go by Barttorvik game scores, compared to the 2014 team...

The 2015 team played against better competition in Kansas City.
The 2017 team played against better competition and was playing better in KC.
The 2019 team was playing better in Kansas City.

The 2014 team was really good, but its efficiency numbers for the whole season, the Big 12, or late in the season do anything but scream "this one is going all the way."

But Iowa State fans love constructing a hypothetical national championship more than anything else. I would know as one of them. I am not sure the Kane-Ejim team makes it past UConn, much less Michigan State and the teams after it, late that year.

Nothing like the legend of what could have been, though, which Hoiberg himself and all the media members around the team have done plenty to try to cultivate ever since.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: isutrevman

IASTATE07

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 30, 2016
11,968
18,739
113
The "myth" of Georges being the key to a Final 4 run in 2013-14 started because he had just destroyed Kansas and our first round opponent (NCCU). He wasn't great against Baylor, but his play in those high-profile games as well as the Band-Aid incident contributed to a sense that that team was destined for something special.

I don't necessarily buy it, but hard to argue we wouldn't have had a much better chance had he not been hurt.

It didn't have anything to do with the 1 and 2 seeds getting beat in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 with us being the highest seed left?
 

madguy30

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2011
49,740
46,478
113
It didn't have anything to do with the 1 and 2 seeds getting beat in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 with us being the highest seed left?

13-14 NCAA field was also about as wide open as I remember once you got to the Sweet Sixteen.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: BigCyFan

alarson

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 15, 2006
53,716
61,496
113
Ankeny
13-14 Hilton
14-15 Hilton
15-16 away
16-17 away
17-18 Hilton
18-19 away
19-20 away

3 home 4 away but 4 out of last 5 have been away.

And the one year of those 5 we were at home, we were trash so i'll forgive people who forget we've had a home game
 

cyups2323

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 13, 2013
657
1,541
93
I'm sorry but no team should have to play 3 road games in a row in one of these series.
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron