Eight flawed teams that are dangerous enough to win a title

[LincolnSwinger]

Here's the thing, ISU has more pro potential on the roster than most any team in the nation. Due to suspensions and injuries ISU still hasn't played their best basket ball but are getting better each game. THT is close to breaking out of his minor slump and adjusting to B12. LW and Lard will be next. I'll put ISU's top 8 up against any team in the nation, and is the reason the writer had ISU in the top 8.
Even with the disappointing loss at KU it was ties with less than 2 minutes left. Depending on matchups ISU is as much of a threat outside of Duke to get to the finals. No body should predict a final four run at this point but I wouldn't count out a UCONN or Loyola) type run in the tourney

Lard is the key. We need him to be playing at least as well as he did at his peak last year to sniff the FF. Without him playing productively for 25+ minutes a game, it's a pipe dream. The other guards can offset a loss of production from LW (with a large dose of luck), though it would be great to have him in peak form, too. But as you say, it isn't crazy to believe it's possible to reach the FF given the talent on the roster. But as of right now....not a chance. It's asking too much of Jacobson/Conditt, as much as I like those guys.

 

[NoCreativity]

I really can't figure out why people have such a hard time remembering this group is really damn young and youth breads inconsistency. Might as well relax and enjoy the fun moments and chill when we're having an off night.

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

 

[NoCreativity]

Depending on matchups ISU is as much of a threat outside of Duke to get to the finals

Someone please pass the Kool-Aid. If Lard and Wigginton start playing like the did last year I could see possibly Final Four run, right now we are nowhere near those elite teams. We would get run off the floor against teams like Duke or Tennessee right now.

I couldn't even imagine what a matchup would look like against Michigan State with Lard fouling out in 6 minutes and Conditt not playing again.

 

[NickTheGreat]

All we need is a 5 or 6 game hot streak!

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

All we need is a 5 or 6 game hot streak!

Take a peak at the schedule. Win tomorrow and 5 straight is certainly a possibility.

 

[mdk2isu]

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

Age wise, maybe not. But there are a lot of new pieces in the rotation and no matter how talented, it takes time for them to gel.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Someone please pass the Kool-Aid. If Lard and Wigginton start playing like the did last year I could see possibly Final Four run, right now we are nowhere near those elite teams. We would get run off the floor against teams like Duke or Tennessee right now.

I couldn't even imagine what a matchup would look like against Michigan State with Lard fouling out in 6 minutes and Conditt not playing again.

Wut?
That was my point ISU is a good team right now but hasn't reached their ceiling of their potential. I believe both Wigginton and Lard will be playing well in March and this team will then be able to compete with any 1 seed. This team on 1/25 may not beat Duke or Tenn but that doesn't matter in the tourney, one upset paves the way to the final four (look at Virginia last year).

 

[LincolnSwinger]

Wut?
That was my point ISU is a good team right now but hasn't reached their ceiling of their potential. I believe both Wigginton and Lard will be playing well in March and this team will then be able to compete with any 1 seed. This team on 1/25 may not beat Duke or Tenn but that doesn't matter in the tourney, one upset paves the way to the final four (look at Virginia last year).

Sorry if that seemed like I was disagreeing with you. That wasn't my intent. I was just trying to refine your point by saying making the FF relies more on Lard's improvement than Wigginton's. The potential certainly exists.

 

[stateofmind]

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

Although I agree that a couple guys have played D1 BB prior to playing in the Big XII, but they had to learn a whole new system, in completely different programs. And every team has to introduce new players to their system each year, but to do that with four of those players missing 9 or 10 games is not common.

We don't have a single person on this team, including coaches that have been here through a full class from Freshman to Senior.

I've seen you post the quoted before and it didn't feel right, so I decided to do a little research. (I couldn't figure out how to put a table in here so I'll summarize)

Third season playing in Ames, for Prohm, have played 17% of the team's total minutes:

• Nick Weiler-Babb (RSr) 16.8%
• Solomon Young (Jr) .1%

Second season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 15% of the team's total minutes:

• Lindell Wigginton (So) 5.8%
• Terrence Lewis (So) 4.7%
• Cameron Lard (So) 2.4%
• Zoran Talley (Sr) 1.9%

First season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 68% of the team's total minutes:

• Tyrese Haliburton (Fr) 17.2%
• Marial Shayok (RSr) 16.2%
• Talen Horton-Tucker (Fr) 13.8%
• Michael Jacobson (RJr) 13.4%
• George Conditt IV (Fr) 3.7%
• Zion Griffin (Fr) 2.5%
• Nate Schuster (Fr) .5%
• Eric Steyer (Fr) .4%
• Carter Boothe (RFr) .2%

I'm guessing that this will prove your point somehow, but to me it shines light on the youth and significant minutes.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Watching Mich. State tonight rebound the basketball was a treat, and something that ISU has been missing for years. Rebounding is attitude and desire more than anything else. We do a horrible job boxing out, putting a body on a man and positioning.

How many times this year have we had a player to two in position to get a rebound and then not get it because the other guy out hustled us and wanted it more?

Good team are decent rebounding teams, great teams look at every missed shot as a chance to get the ball, that is what we are missing, and really have since the Larry E. years.

That's an overly broad assessment.

It all depends upon how you structure your team, and what you focus upon in recruiting and in coaching. The Hoiberg era seemed focused on recruiting guys that are fluid and comfortable on the offensive end. Shooters and scorers above all else. Coach Prohm seems to be more balanced, wanting guys, with good positional size, who are comfortable on offense, but also play some defense. Clearly MSU focuses on strength, defense and rebounding (but half the time, they can't shoot for ****).

 

[VeloClone]

Although I agree that a couple guys have played D1 BB prior to playing in the Big XII, but they had to learn a whole new system, in completely different programs. And every team has to introduce new players to their system each year, but to do that with four of those players missing 9 or 10 games is not common.

We don't have a single person on this team, including coaches that have been here through a full class from Freshman to Senior.

I've seen you post the quoted before and it didn't feel right, so I decided to do a little research. (I couldn't figure out how to put a table in here so I'll summarize)

Third season playing in Ames, for Prohm, have played 17% of the team's total minutes:

• Nick Weiler-Babb (RSr) 16.8%
• Solomon Young (Jr) .1%

Second season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 15% of the team's total minutes:

• Lindell Wigginton (So) 5.8%
• Terrence Lewis (So) 4.7%
• Cameron Lard (So) 2.4%
• Zoran Talley (Sr) 1.9%

First season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 68% of the team's total minutes:

• Tyrese Haliburton (Fr) 17.2%
• Marial Shayok (RSr) 16.2%
• Talen Horton-Tucker (Fr) 13.8%
• Michael Jacobson (RJr) 13.4%
• George Conditt IV (Fr) 3.7%
• Zion Griffin (Fr) 2.5%
• Nate Schuster (Fr) .5%
• Eric Steyer (Fr) .4%
• Carter Boothe (RFr) .2%

I'm guessing that this will prove your point somehow, but to me it shines light on the youth and significant minutes.

I hate it when people use all of those pesky facts to make their case.

 

[Psiclone]

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

Yup, 2 5th-year seniors and one 4th-year junior in the starting rotation give us plenty of experience.

 

[Psiclone]

Although I agree that a couple guys have played D1 BB prior to playing in the Big XII, but they had to learn a whole new system, in completely different programs. And every team has to introduce new players to their system each year, but to do that with four of those players missing 9 or 10 games is not common.

We don't have a single person on this team, including coaches that have been here through a full class from Freshman to Senior.

I've seen you post the quoted before and it didn't feel right, so I decided to do a little research. (I couldn't figure out how to put a table in here so I'll summarize)

Third season playing in Ames, for Prohm, have played 17% of the team's total minutes:

• Nick Weiler-Babb (RSr) 16.8%
• Solomon Young (Jr) .1%

Second season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 15% of the team's total minutes:

• Lindell Wigginton (So) 5.8%
• Terrence Lewis (So) 4.7%
• Cameron Lard (So) 2.4%
• Zoran Talley (Sr) 1.9%

First season playing in Ames, for Prohm have played 68% of the team's total minutes:

• Tyrese Haliburton (Fr) 17.2%
• Marial Shayok (RSr) 16.2%
• Talen Horton-Tucker (Fr) 13.8%
• Michael Jacobson (RJr) 13.4%
• George Conditt IV (Fr) 3.7%
• Zion Griffin (Fr) 2.5%
• Nate Schuster (Fr) .5%
• Eric Steyer (Fr) .4%
• Carter Boothe (RFr) .2%

I'm guessing that this will prove your point somehow, but to me it shines light on the youth and significant minutes.

I think Prohm needs to rest his starters a bit more so they're fresh in crunch time at the end of games. Right now, Babb and Shayok are #'s 2, 3 in the conference in minutes played/conf. game, and TH is 7th. Either give THT and LW more PT in the rotation, or work in Talley a bit more. We have lost 3 games in crunch time due to mistakes a the end of games and fatigue does contribute to mental errors.

 

[VeloClone]

I think Prohm needs to rest his starters a bit more so they're fresh in crunch time at the end of games. Right now, Babb and Shayok are #'s 2, 3 in the conference in minutes played/conf. game, and TH is 7th. Either give THT and LW more PT in the rotation, or work in Talley a bit more. We have lost 3 games in crunch time due to mistakes a the end of games and fatigue does contribute to mental errors.

Yeah, this kind of depth we haven't enjoyed for a good long time. A few more minutes rest leading up to a media timeout one more time in the game could do several of our players a lot of good.

 

[EarthIsMan]

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

Yes, but what this team lacks at the moment is roster "continuity" or simply, playing together in games. I agree that ISU is actually quite experienced, but it needs some time still to emerge.

A team like Nevada is the 2nd (of 353 teams) most experienced at an average age (weighted by minutes played) of 2.68 years. Still comparatively, ISU is below average in experience at an average of 1.44 years (rank #259).

FWIW, of top 50 KenPom teams ISU has the 3rd least amount of lineup continuity. The others even lower are Duke and Kentucky who have lot have freshman and have dealt with injuries this season. This all to say that we should continue to be patient as hopefully Lard, Wigginton, etc.hit their stride.

p.s. Both offensive and defensive efficiency are strongly correlated to "minutes continuity". However, experience alone is not a significant predictor of offensive or defensive efficiency.

 

[NickTheGreat]

Take a peak at the schedule. Win tomorrow and 5 straight is certainly a possibility.

I meant in March to win the whole freakin' thing. But yeah.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

ISU is tied with OSU for 157th rebounding margin, we are currently a plus 1.3 per game. The only conference school worse than us and OSU is Texas at 175.

We are not a good rebounding team, and haven't been in years.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/151/p4

 

[Doc]

This team isnt that young. Only 2 of the four freshman even play significant minutes, everyone else in the rotation has been through at least one BIg 12 season and some of them have been through multiple Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 seasons.

You can really argue it either way. The data says we’re a less experienced team based on minutes played and class, but we have three five year seniors, a four year junior, and two sophs who played a lot as freshmen. We’re both very young in places and very seasoned in other places.

 

[madguy30]

I feel like this team is just like Hoiberg's last team. 2014-2015. Incredibly high ceiling (won Big 12 Tournament and could have won NCAA Tournament) but really low floor too (regular season losses to bad Tech/K-State teams and first round loss to UAB).

That 14-15 team wasn't going to win the NCAA tourney.

This team also isn't like that team. They were coming off a good year with a lot of contributors back, this year's has lots of guys still learning college basketball and how to play together including its stars.

The ceiling and floor are yet to be determined imo...hopefully the floor was in I.C. which is more annoying than terrible and hopefully the conference floor was the Baylor/KSU week.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...ams-that-are-dangerous-enough-to-win-a-title/

"THEY CAN WIN IT ALL BECAUSE: Iowa State has a roster that is built precisely the way that modern basketball is supposed to be played. They have five perimeter players (Marial Shayok, Nick Weiler-Babb, Tyrese Haliburton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lindell Wigginton) that can on or off the ball — running ball-screens and spacing the floor with their shooting — who are all switchable defensively. They have a pair of big bodies (Michael Jacobson, Cam Lard) in the frontcourt that can score 1-on-1 in the paint, rebound the ball and protect the rim. They have NBA talent on their roster, and are probably the most talented team in the Big 12.

They create matchup problems offensively and have just enough size and versatility defensively that they can matchup well enough with just about anyone."

More at the link (didn't want to quote the whole thing).

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...ams-that-are-dangerous-enough-to-win-a-title/

"THEY CAN WIN IT ALL BECAUSE: Iowa State has a roster that is built precisely the way that modern basketball is supposed to be played. They have five perimeter players (Marial Shayok, Nick Weiler-Babb, Tyrese Haliburton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lindell Wigginton) that can on or off the ball — running ball-screens and spacing the floor with their shooting — who are all switchable defensively. They have a pair of big bodies (Michael Jacobson, Cam Lard) in the frontcourt that can score 1-on-1 in the paint, rebound the ball and protect the rim. They have NBA talent on their roster, and are probably the most talented team in the Big 12.

They create matchup problems offensively and have just enough size and versatility defensively that they can matchup well enough with just about anyone."

More at the link (didn't want to quote the whole thing).

They used to call this logic Blue Sky.