I’d feel like such a victim. We’d have to play in the Sugar Bowl. Damn.
Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
I’d feel like such a victim. We’d have to play in the Sugar Bowl. Damn.
After OU's showing against TTU without Bowman in the second half, I'm concerned about them beating WVU.
Their defense is really bad. Depending on them to win at West Virginia doesn't give me a ton of confidence, really wish Texas would have won yesterday.
Updated odds for the Big 12 Championship Game:
Oklahoma: 84.7% (61.8% 1st, 22.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 59.6% (31.1% 1st, 28.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 35.1% (5.4% 1st, 29.7% 2nd)
Texas: 20.5% (1.7% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
other five teams: nada
Every B12 CG scenario >0.05%:
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 44.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 28.9%
Oklahoma/Texas: 11.4%
Texas/West Virginia: 9.1%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 6.2%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 0.1%
ISU record chances (before IW or B12 CG):
5-6: 0.7%
6-5: 11.8%
7-4: 52.1%
8-3: 35.5%
ISU odds of making B12 CG at record (before IW):
6-5: 0.1%
7-4: 12.1%
8-3: 81.2%
Oklahoma: 84.7% (61.8% 1st, 22.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 59.6% (31.1% 1st, 28.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 35.1% (5.4% 1st, 29.7% 2nd)
Texas: 20.5% (1.7% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
other five teams: nada
Every B12 CG scenario >0.05%:
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 44.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 28.9%
Oklahoma/Texas: 11.4%
Texas/West Virginia: 9.1%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 6.2%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 0.1%
ISU record chances (before IW or B12 CG):
5-6: 0.7%
6-5: 11.8%
7-4: 52.1%
8-3: 35.5%
ISU odds of making B12 CG at record (before IW):
6-5: 0.1%
7-4: 12.1%
8-3: 81.2%
Next week's games:
Odds for ISU if they beat Baylor: 37.4%
Odds for ISU if they lose to Baylor: 12.2%
TCU over West Virginia: ISU's odds +14%
OSU over OU: ISU +8%
Tech over Texas: ISU +3%
If you're assuming Iowa State will win its remaining three games, you want to cheer hard for OSU and TCU. If TCU wins, an undefeated Iowa State would have a 99.3% chance of making the B12 CG. If OSU wins (exclusive of the TCU game), an undefeated Iowa State would have a 100% chance. (Texas/Tech has no real impact.)
Odds for ISU if they beat Baylor: 37.4%
Odds for ISU if they lose to Baylor: 12.2%
TCU over West Virginia: ISU's odds +14%
OSU over OU: ISU +8%
Tech over Texas: ISU +3%
If you're assuming Iowa State will win its remaining three games, you want to cheer hard for OSU and TCU. If TCU wins, an undefeated Iowa State would have a 99.3% chance of making the B12 CG. If OSU wins (exclusive of the TCU game), an undefeated Iowa State would have a 100% chance. (Texas/Tech has no real impact.)
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Are those mutually exclusive or are you saying if TCU and OSU win then we're at 100% chance (if we go finish out the year undefeated)
Mutually exclusive -- I should have made that more clear.
I'm guessing it's 100% because then it would be us vs the winner of the WVU and OU game? OU would be with 3 losses if they lost and WVU with 2 but we own the tie breaker?
Yeah. With OSU over OU and ISU winning out, the season would end either:
WV over OU
WV: 8-1 (or lower)
ISU: 7-2
OU (and maybe others): 6-3
...in which case it's clear how ISU's 1 or 2; or:
OU over WV
WV, OU: 7-2 (or lower)
ISU: 7-2
...in which case WV lost to both OU and ISU, so they would lose any tiebreaker to either team individually or as a group.
I'm hoping you guys win out! That will make the WVU loss look better to the playoff committee. WVU has to beat OU twice, but we have a really good team(despite our poor showing in Ames).
WVU shouldn't overlook anyone else on our schedule. TCU is down, but they have given us issues in the past and im pretty sure our players will be fired up for them.
Ditto Oklahoma State. they are down, but i doubt we overlook them.
WVU shouldn't overlook anyone else on our schedule. TCU is down, but they have given us issues in the past and im pretty sure our players will be fired up for them.
Ditto Oklahoma State. they are down, but i doubt we overlook them.
So basically we want OU or WVU to lose again before their game in Morgantown.
Pretty much we either want OU to lose one of their next two games or win out, right?
The reason it's not 100% if TCU beats WV and ISU wins out is...well, look at this fun scenario:
OU, WV, ISU: 7-2
Texas, Baylor, Tech, TCU: 4-4
WV beat OU in this storyline, so all top three teams go 1-1 against the other. So next tiebreaker we look at how they did against the next teams in the standings -- in this case, as a group. ISU and WV lost to TCU and OU lost to Texas, so all the top teams go 3-1 against that 4-4 conglomerate. None of the top teams lost to anyone else, so the next tiebreaker is...scoring differential, which I haven't a clue who'd win that. (My program treats those as a coin flip.)
OU, WV, ISU: 7-2
Texas, Baylor, Tech, TCU: 4-4
WV beat OU in this storyline, so all top three teams go 1-1 against the other. So next tiebreaker we look at how they did against the next teams in the standings -- in this case, as a group. ISU and WV lost to TCU and OU lost to Texas, so all the top teams go 3-1 against that 4-4 conglomerate. None of the top teams lost to anyone else, so the next tiebreaker is...scoring differential, which I haven't a clue who'd win that. (My program treats those as a coin flip.)
Ive watched several ISU games, and I know you guys are good, really good.
but the nation does not and that makes the WVU loss look bad.
In this klatt video, early on he calls the WVU loss to Iowa State "an aberration."
So yeah, WVU needs ISU to beat Texas to get that notion that ISU isnt any good out of the heads of many people who can vote.
Good luck.
but the nation does not and that makes the WVU loss look bad.
In this klatt video, early on he calls the WVU loss to Iowa State "an aberration."
So yeah, WVU needs ISU to beat Texas to get that notion that ISU isnt any good out of the heads of many people who can vote.
Good luck.
Yep, essentially we want anything to happen except OU winning its two easy games, then losing to West Virginia.
D
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To nitpik, Klatt doesn't say the loss to ISU was an aberration. He said the play of the WVU seniors in the ISU game was an aberration. The way ISU played that night, even if WVU played "normal" we might have won and his statement totally discounts that maybe the ISU players had something to do with how WVU played that night too.
As per usual, ISU gets no credit for their wins. It wasn't like we pulled out a lucky play at the end to beat WV. We took them out back and throttled their a$$es behind the woodshed..... and made their head coach whine and cry like a baby afterwords.
But according to the national media.... it was just an "aberration". Our defense has been doing that to teams all year long. Yesterday KU had 3 pts. What did KU score against WV on their home field...... oh that's right..... 22 points.
I would love nothing more than for us to knock WV out of the Big 12 Championship game after what Holgorsen did to us after taking his beat down here. What a baby.
But according to the national media.... it was just an "aberration". Our defense has been doing that to teams all year long. Yesterday KU had 3 pts. What did KU score against WV on their home field...... oh that's right..... 22 points.
I would love nothing more than for us to knock WV out of the Big 12 Championship game after what Holgorsen did to us after taking his beat down here. What a baby.
