and lots of BIG spreads today. For allegedly having so much parity, it's been a pretty uneventful tournament after the first day. Maybe today will be more interesting...
Not many upsets
- Thread starter flynnhicks03
- Start date
Today can be the upset day. I wasn't much into upsets yesterday.
Yeah, not too many upsets at all, but most of the games were at the very least close and competitive affairs. Honestly our own game was a lot closer than the final score indicated.
Not every tournament is full of upsets, and this may be one full of chalk. Thathe being written, still lots of games to be played.
Not every tournament is full of upsets, and this may be one full of chalk. Thathe being written, still lots of games to be played.
Seems like it kind of goes this way doesn't it? I haven't checked any facts, so I could be just talking out of my ass, but it seems if the first day is upset central, day 2 usually goes smoother. Same the other way around, upsets on day one usually means less on day 2.
Maybe I'm just thinking about 2012 when the first day went pretty much as expected, to the point I remember the Friday announcers talking about the lack of upsets. Then Friday, Duke as a 2, Missouri as a 2 and 3 seed Michigan went down on Friday.
With kids, I wonder, when you see a lot of upsets on day 1, the Friday guys focus a little more, "Don't let that happen to us." When day 1 goes smoothly, I wonder if the opposite happens and the kids keep looking past their first round match up.
Either way, that's what's fun about this tournament. I actually didn't even realize how few upsets there were until after our game. Yeah, I watched most of them, but I was so nervous about our game, that's what was dominating my thoughts. Should be an interesting day today.
I'm feeling like we see a 5-4 upset on Saturday. 
I've been thinking about this, and think there are a couple factors in the current game that might make upsets more rare.
1. Transfers - I think it's harder for the smaller schools to keep elite players as transfers have become common. When Missouri and Duke went down as two seeds, their opponents had CJ McCollum and Kyle O'Quinn who are both NBA players. I don't these the small school teams keep these players as frequently anymore. Also, I don't think they have it as easy when it comes to players transferring down a level as higher level coaches get more comfortable with taking marginal transfers.
2. Analytics -- I think a lot of the bigger schools have essentially tightened up the way they play offense so the chances of a great team having a bad offensive game are lower. There are more 3s and layups and teams don't play as many bad offensive role players as they used too.
1. Transfers - I think it's harder for the smaller schools to keep elite players as transfers have become common. When Missouri and Duke went down as two seeds, their opponents had CJ McCollum and Kyle O'Quinn who are both NBA players. I don't these the small school teams keep these players as frequently anymore. Also, I don't think they have it as easy when it comes to players transferring down a level as higher level coaches get more comfortable with taking marginal transfers.
2. Analytics -- I think a lot of the bigger schools have essentially tightened up the way they play offense so the chances of a great team having a bad offensive game are lower. There are more 3s and layups and teams don't play as many bad offensive role players as they used too.
Also, I think with new tools to analyze teams the committee has gotten better at seeding the low-major schools properly.
In the past I think there were probably teams that were seeded 14 or 15, but probably legimate 12 or 13 seeds. Now with the kenpom data being available, they have more tools to distinguish low majors from each other.
In the past I think there were probably teams that were seeded 14 or 15, but probably legimate 12 or 13 seeds. Now with the kenpom data being available, they have more tools to distinguish low majors from each other.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
No, it shouldn't. Okie State feasted on bottom feeders for their win streak.
They're exactly the kind of team that needs to be in this level game, if any at all. They just haven't done very much.
I think that game proved Okie State was underseeded. Michigan who many think was underseeded compared to how they were playing needed to shoot like crazy to beat them by one.
The committee did an awful job of seeding the entire Big 10 this year. The Maryland and Minnesota games werent even upsets yesterday, just a result of horrible overseeding.
