I'll give this a shot.
From Cliff Alexander, I'm hoping to get maybe 25 minutes a game of above average big man play that can sometimes flash elite. I assume he'll play the five almost exclusively (Perry Ellis basically can't play anything but four), and that he'll struggle at times, and probably get himself in foul trouble too, but that he'll probably also have some moments where he'll just be a beast on both ends. I'm really interested to watch how he develops, just because you so rarely see guys succeed with that body - I think he's around 6'7" in socks, 250 lbs. - period, let alone guys without many perimeter skills. I'm just not sure I see a Top 5 pick there. But back to college, where he was ranked #2 on that best players list from thebiglead.com that recently came out. That, frankly, seems crazy high to me.
When I tried to come up with Preseason Big 12 teams the other day, I struggled with where to place him, but ended up putting him Third Team.
From there, things only get less certain for me with the freshmen. It's hard for me to project guard minutes, because there's seven guys there that could all play 20+ minutes, and thus a guy or two is getting left out.
Let's start with Devonte Graham. He's a prep school kid who had a weird recruitment, and there was some real excitement when everything worked out for him, thinking he could come in and stabilize a PG position that has been rocky the last couple years. And just because he's older, he may have a chance to be better right away than Mason or Frankamp were last year, but now that those two guys are sophomores, I expect them to have the edge on Graham. So, at least for year one, my expectations here are pretty low. I'll be plenty happy, even if he only gets spot minutes, if he can keep his man out of the paint a little bit and not turn the ball over much.
With Sviatoslov Mykhailiuk, much like ISU and Tsalmpouris, it's really hard to know what to expect. It seems he's got a chance to be a very nice player, a great shooter with size and some decent defensive instincts, but the kid just turned 17 a month ago. I've heard some really glowing reports on him, but for now I'm just keeping a "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset. If he can, as a 17 year old, give KU 10-15 minutes a game of B12-average wing play, I'd be pretty happy with that.
Oubre, I think, has a chance to be a really special player. He's LONG - he has the same wingspan, 7'2", as Jeff Withey - and athletic, can shoot and attack, and has the potential to be a really good defender. But, again, I think it's going to take some time for everything to come together here. I'd expect 20-25 minutes a game on the wing that, by the end of the season, will be quite positive.
I only discussed freshmen above, but I think Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis will be the two best players over the course of the season, both 30+ minute guys who can push for First Team All-Big 12. But outside of those two, its hard to know exactly how the rotation will shake out, especially looking at the 1-2-3 spots, so it's kind of hard to have firm expectations for specific guys in those spots.
Overall, I think Kansas is again the favorite in the conference, but, obviously, is no guarantee to win. Texas looks scary up front and could surely win the league if Isaiah Taylor has a great season. ISU, as everyone here knows, could win the thing if they can win some road games and a few things break right. And OU, I suppose, has a chance if they learn to play some defense.
And finally, just to take this post all the way through - and I apologize for the length, but I wanted to answer the questions posed - I'll guess that KU will get a 2 seed and lose at some point before the Final Four.
