Tarheel fan here - I come in peace. I apologize this comes so late, but it took a bit for my account to be validated so I could make this post...
First, I wanted you guys to know I really hate you lost such a tremendous player in Niang to an injury at the start of the NCAA tournament. Not only was he a great player, but from his post-game interview, he sounds like a great teammate as well. With him on the floor, I really believe ISU had a chance to make a deep run in the tourney. Having lost Kendall Marshall two years ago in the NCAA tournament, I remember how depressing it was as UNC struggled to beat a weak mid-major opponent, then fell to a Kansas team I really believe we would have beaten with Marshall on the floor. If we lose, I hope you guys make a deep run in the tourney.
Second, I thought we could swap some team analysis with each other. Here is a UNC breakdown:
This is one of the better defensive teams I have seen in the Roy Williams era here at UNC; normally his teams are poor at guarding the three point line, but this team knows how to guard the perimeter. Our biggest defensive issue (especially as of late) is dribble penetration. Paige, Tokoto, and McAdoo are all terrific defenders based on stop percentage; the key for Ejim is to get McAdoo in foul trouble, because when he stays out of foul trouble, he can really be an effective defender. Likewise, Page is extremely underrated as a perimeter defender, and makes life difficult for opponents. Additionally, our length and athleticism has allowed us to employ effective 2-3 and 1-3-1 zones against opponents, then switching back to man-to-man before the opponent can adjust and become comfortable with our zones.
Offensively, though less true than normal this year, we do far better against quicker teams that like to run; the more a team likes to run, the more likely UNC is to win the game. (In fact, I saw a stat (can’t remember where) that showed when adjusted tempo stats reach somewhere around the 80[SUP]th[/SUP] percentile or higher in a UNC game, our chances of winning games in this upper echelon of speed jumped to well above 90% during the Roy Williams era.) Our half-court offense is a different story; essentially we rely on either (a) pounding the ball inside with our very big frontcourt (in size and length, as we have very good athletes down low which makes them play taller than their heights) and either scoring or grabbing a very high percentage of our misses for put-backs, or (b) allowing Marcus Paige to make a big three or excellent drive and finish in key moments of the game. This means two things: one, if you slow down Marcus Paige, we are one dimensional on offense, and two, if you don’t allow us to get offensive rebounds (which is hard to do for most teams because of our size, but certainly possible), we struggle to get points. (This is especially true when you consider our abysmal free throw shooting.) Play slow, stop Paige, and don’t allow offense rebounds, and this will be a long night for UNC.
Summation: Defensive liabilities are a tendency to get into foul trouble and some trouble with dribble penetration. Offensive liabilities are a tendency to rely on Paige (teams who went to a box and one have had some success), need for speed, and our reliance on second chance points due to poor shooting (including at the free throw line).
What’s your assessment of Iowa State? I look forward to your analysis of your team, and again, I wish you guys the best if you beat us, and I am glad Niang wasn’t a senior and will have a chance to play for a great coach and blossoming program next year.
First, I wanted you guys to know I really hate you lost such a tremendous player in Niang to an injury at the start of the NCAA tournament. Not only was he a great player, but from his post-game interview, he sounds like a great teammate as well. With him on the floor, I really believe ISU had a chance to make a deep run in the tourney. Having lost Kendall Marshall two years ago in the NCAA tournament, I remember how depressing it was as UNC struggled to beat a weak mid-major opponent, then fell to a Kansas team I really believe we would have beaten with Marshall on the floor. If we lose, I hope you guys make a deep run in the tourney.
Second, I thought we could swap some team analysis with each other. Here is a UNC breakdown:
This is one of the better defensive teams I have seen in the Roy Williams era here at UNC; normally his teams are poor at guarding the three point line, but this team knows how to guard the perimeter. Our biggest defensive issue (especially as of late) is dribble penetration. Paige, Tokoto, and McAdoo are all terrific defenders based on stop percentage; the key for Ejim is to get McAdoo in foul trouble, because when he stays out of foul trouble, he can really be an effective defender. Likewise, Page is extremely underrated as a perimeter defender, and makes life difficult for opponents. Additionally, our length and athleticism has allowed us to employ effective 2-3 and 1-3-1 zones against opponents, then switching back to man-to-man before the opponent can adjust and become comfortable with our zones.
Offensively, though less true than normal this year, we do far better against quicker teams that like to run; the more a team likes to run, the more likely UNC is to win the game. (In fact, I saw a stat (can’t remember where) that showed when adjusted tempo stats reach somewhere around the 80[SUP]th[/SUP] percentile or higher in a UNC game, our chances of winning games in this upper echelon of speed jumped to well above 90% during the Roy Williams era.) Our half-court offense is a different story; essentially we rely on either (a) pounding the ball inside with our very big frontcourt (in size and length, as we have very good athletes down low which makes them play taller than their heights) and either scoring or grabbing a very high percentage of our misses for put-backs, or (b) allowing Marcus Paige to make a big three or excellent drive and finish in key moments of the game. This means two things: one, if you slow down Marcus Paige, we are one dimensional on offense, and two, if you don’t allow us to get offensive rebounds (which is hard to do for most teams because of our size, but certainly possible), we struggle to get points. (This is especially true when you consider our abysmal free throw shooting.) Play slow, stop Paige, and don’t allow offense rebounds, and this will be a long night for UNC.
Summation: Defensive liabilities are a tendency to get into foul trouble and some trouble with dribble penetration. Offensive liabilities are a tendency to rely on Paige (teams who went to a box and one have had some success), need for speed, and our reliance on second chance points due to poor shooting (including at the free throw line).
What’s your assessment of Iowa State? I look forward to your analysis of your team, and again, I wish you guys the best if you beat us, and I am glad Niang wasn’t a senior and will have a chance to play for a great coach and blossoming program next year.
