Looking forward to this game. It is a superbowl of sorts for NDSU thats for sure. Its actually an honor to get invited to play at Jack Trice. In my opinion its nicer than the new KSU stadium but there are a lot of similiaraties. Both are pretty nice.
I started to take a look at the prediction problem all of us football fans have with this and every other game. When predicting a game I use the GAM - Game Analyzer Mechanism. We like to say it gives you a leg-up! :smile:
The GAM is kind of an unusual approach. Its all based on efficiency and keeps subjective input to a minimum. When the GAM is wrong it has been an upset.
The first place to start, since this is an opening game, is with last years statistics to compare the teams based on their overall season performance. I realize The Cyclones played a tougher schedule so I did adjust the inputs to represent a total -20% for NDSU. I took down NDSUs stats -14% and increased the ISU stats by +6%.
NDSU had a pretty good team last year. The GAM is showing a close game, 25.9-22.4 in favor of The BISON. This is close enough so the subjective inputs should be examined. However, Im not going to do that it will be more productive for us to review the changes from last season and then adjust the stats. NDSU has a lot of change to contend with.
I started to take a look at the prediction problem all of us football fans have with this and every other game. When predicting a game I use the GAM - Game Analyzer Mechanism. We like to say it gives you a leg-up! :smile:
The GAM is kind of an unusual approach. Its all based on efficiency and keeps subjective input to a minimum. When the GAM is wrong it has been an upset.
The first place to start, since this is an opening game, is with last years statistics to compare the teams based on their overall season performance. I realize The Cyclones played a tougher schedule so I did adjust the inputs to represent a total -20% for NDSU. I took down NDSUs stats -14% and increased the ISU stats by +6%.
NDSU had a pretty good team last year. The GAM is showing a close game, 25.9-22.4 in favor of The BISON. This is close enough so the subjective inputs should be examined. However, Im not going to do that it will be more productive for us to review the changes from last season and then adjust the stats. NDSU has a lot of change to contend with.
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