What if Hoiberg became head coach in 2006?

[roundball]

As everyone knows, Fred Hoiberg tried to get his current job back in 2006 when Wayne Morgan was fired. If you're like me, you've often wondered what would have happened if Pollard had rolled the dice and hired him. To explore that thought, I've come up with a little quasi-alternative history based on Fred using the same strategy of pursuing transfers from 2006-2010.

To keep things simple, I assumed that the same exodus occurs during 2006 (Stinson and Blalock going pro, Carr and Taggart transferring) and that Fred gets many of the same recruits that McDermott did (if Greg can lure them to Iowa, so can Fred).

2006/7 - Similar to the 2010/11 campaign, Fred is learning how to coach while inheriting a team returning just a handful of quality upperclassmen, and plugs the holes with JuCo players while the D1 transfers sit out.

2007/8 - Notable transfers eligible this year included Torre Johnson (Ok. State), Mike Williams (Texas), Eric Boateng (Duke), Dior Lowhorn (Texas Tech), Robert Vaden (Indiana), and DeMarre Carroll (Vanderbilt). Extreme longshots in that group are Carroll (went to Missouri to play under Mike Anderson, his uncle), Vaden (followed Mike Davis to UAB), and Lowhorn (went back home to San Francisco). Johnson ended up at Milwaukee, and Williams at Cincinnati, each for one year. Boateng was a highly-touted HS player and had three years of eligibility remaining, so I imagine we'd at least give him a look. Alex Thompson also transferred from Iowa that year. If Fred takes Johnson, Williams, and Boateng, the roster could have looked like this:

Craig Brackins - FR
Rahshon Clark - SR
Wesley Johnson - SO
Jiri Hubalek - SR
Torre Johnson - SR
Mike Williams - JR
Eric Boateng - SO
Diante Garrett - FR
Clayton Vette - FR
Sean Haluska -JR
Bryan Petersen - JR
Cory Johnson - SO
Brock Jacobson - SO
Alex Thompson - JR

2008/9 - This year's eligible transfers included Tyler Smith (Iowa), Chris Lutz (Purdue), Jamel McLean (Tulsa), and Sean Ogirri (Wichita State). Smith went to Tennessee to be closer to home, so he'd be unlikely to come here. None of the others are extremely appetizing, but I could see Hoiberg taking Ogirri and Lutz. Assuming Cory Johnson, Vette, and Jacobson leave, but Hoiberg convinces Wes Johnson to stay, that would make a roster of:

Craig Brackins - SO
Wesley Johnson - JR
Chris Lutz - JR
Sean Ogirri - SR
Mike Williams - SR
Eric Boateng - JR
Diante Garrett - SO
Sean Haluska -SR
Bryan Petersen - SR
Wes Eikmeier - FR
Justin Hamilton - FR
Lucca Staiger - SO
Jamie Vanderbeken - SO
Alex Thomspon - SR

2009/10 - This year was absolutely loaded with eligible transfers, and many were amazing. Ben Hansbrough (MS State), Jordan Crawford (Indiana), Elliot Williams (Duke), Vernon Macklin (Georgetown), Curtis Kelly (UConn), and Scott Christopherson (Marquette) are a few. Big assumptions here are that Hoiberg advises Wes Johnson and Craig Brackins to turn pro after the last season, and convinces Eikmeier to hang around Ames. In my wildest dreams, Hoiberg gets every one of these transfers except Hansbrough, creating this for a roster:

Jordan Crawford - SO
Elliot Williams - SO
Chris Lutz - SR
Eric Boateng - SR
Diante Garrett - JR
Wes Eikmeier - SO
Justin Hamilton - SO
Lucca Staiger - JR
Jamie Vanderbeken - JR
Vernon Macklin - JR
Curtis Kelly- JR
Scott Christopherson - SO
Marquis Gilstrap - SR
JuCo player - JR

2010/11 - Crawford and Williams go pro, Staiger doesn't leave mid-season last year, and Hamilton doesn't get the itch to play "closer to home". Few transfers of note are eligible this year, but it doesn't matter because Hoiberg has a stellar recruiting class that includes Melvin Ejim and Harrison Barnes, who's enticed by a program that's put four players in the NBA during the past two years. Hoiberg fills the remaining vacancies with JuCo players for a roster that looks like this:

Diante Garrett - SR
Wes Eikmeier - JR
Justin Hamilton - JR
Lucca Staiger - SR
Jamie Vanderbeken - SR
Vernon Macklin - SR
Curtis Kelly- SR
Scott Christopherson - JR
Melvin Ejim - FR
Harrison Barnes - FR
Bubu Palo - FR
Calvin Godfrey - FR
Darion "Jake" Anderson - SR
JuCo player - SR

 

[Luth4Cy]

Fred would have surely brought in some transfers, but I'm not sure if he would have relied on them as much. If McDermott didn't have guys so many guys leave and Mike Taylor get in trouble he would have had a solid run.

 

[MNCyGuy]

It's an interesting hypothetical, but I don't agree with a lot of your leaps of logic. After those first 2 years I think you pretty much have to throw out any assumptions about how he would have recruited, other than probably Barnes.

 

[roundball]

It's an interesting hypothetical, but I don't agree with a lot of your leaps of logic. After those first 2 years I think you pretty much have to throw out any assumptions about how he would have recruited, other than probably Barnes.

Oh, definitely. More than anything I just wanted to see what the transfer landscape looked like back then and see what rosters could be like with a few of them included. Other than 2009/10, the pickings looked pretty slim.

 

[VeloClone]

One thing that was mentioned in one of the recent articles on Fred is that he used some of his time scouting for the TWolves to pick up pointers from practices of a multitude of coaches out there. What did he like that they did; what did he not like. What would he incorporate if given the chance.

The question also has to be asked - would Fred have been truly ready to be as successful in 2006?

 

[letsCYber]

As everyone knows, Fred Hoiberg tried to get his current job back in 2006 when Wayne Morgan was fired. If you're like me, you've often wondered what would have happened if Pollard had rolled the dice and hired him. To explore that thought, I've come up with a little quasi-alternative history based on Fred using the same strategy of pursuing transfers from 2006-2010.

To keep things simple, I assumed that the same exodus occurs during 2006 (Stinson and Blalock going pro, Carr and Taggart transferring) and that Fred gets many of the same recruits that McDermott did (if Greg can lure them to Iowa, so can Fred).

2006/7 - Similar to the 2010/11 campaign, Fred is learning how to coach while inheriting a team returning just a handful of quality upperclassmen, and plugs the holes with JuCo players while the D1 transfers sit out.

2007/8 - Notable transfers eligible this year included Torre Johnson (Ok. State), Mike Williams (Texas), Eric Boateng (Duke), Dior Lowhorn (Texas Tech), Robert Vaden (Indiana), and DeMarre Carroll (Vanderbilt). Extreme longshots in that group are Carroll (went to Missouri to play under Mike Anderson, his uncle), Vaden (followed Mike Davis to UAB), and Lowhorn (went back home to San Francisco). Johnson ended up at Milwaukee, and Williams at Cincinnati, each for one year. Boateng was a highly-touted HS player and had three years of eligibility remaining, so I imagine we'd at least give him a look. Alex Thompson also transferred from Iowa that year. If Fred takes Johnson, Williams, and Boateng, the roster could have looked like this:

Craig Brackins - FR
Rahshon Clark - SR
Wesley Johnson - SO
Jiri Hubalek - SR
Torre Johnson - SR
Mike Williams - JR
Eric Boateng - SO
Diante Garrett - FR
Clayton Vette - FR
Sean Haluska -JR
Bryan Petersen - JR
Cory Johnson - SO
Brock Jacobson - SO
Alex Thompson - JR

2008/9 - This year's eligible transfers included Tyler Smith (Iowa), Chris Lutz (Purdue), Jamel McLean (Tulsa), and Sean Ogirri (Wichita State). Smith went to Tennessee to be closer to home, so he'd be unlikely to come here. None of the others are extremely appetizing, but I could see Hoiberg taking Ogirri and Lutz. Assuming Cory Johnson, Vette, and Jacobson leave, but Hoiberg convinces Wes Johnson to stay, that would make a roster of:

Craig Brackins - SO
Wesley Johnson - JR
Chris Lutz - JR
Sean Ogirri - SR
Mike Williams - SR
Eric Boateng - JR
Diante Garrett - SO
Sean Haluska -SR
Bryan Petersen - SR
Wes Eikmeier - FR
Justin Hamilton - FR
Lucca Staiger - SO
Jamie Vanderbeken - SO
Alex Thomspon - SR

2009/10 - This year was absolutely loaded with eligible transfers, and many were amazing. Ben Hansbrough (MS State), Jordan Crawford (Indiana), Elliot Williams (Duke), Vernon Macklin (Georgetown), Curtis Kelly (UConn), and Scott Christopherson (Marquette) are a few. Big assumptions here are that Hoiberg advises Wes Johnson and Craig Brackins to turn pro after the last season, and convinces Eikmeier to hang around Ames. In my wildest dreams, Hoiberg gets every one of these transfers except Hansbrough, creating this for a roster:

Jordan Crawford - SO
Elliot Williams - SO
Chris Lutz - SR
Eric Boateng - SR
Diante Garrett - JR
Wes Eikmeier - SO
Justin Hamilton - SO
Lucca Staiger - JR
Jamie Vanderbeken - JR
Vernon Macklin - JR
Curtis Kelly- JR
Scott Christopherson - SO
Marquis Gilstrap - SR
JuCo player - JR

2010/11 - Crawford and Williams go pro, Staiger doesn't leave mid-season last year, and Hamilton doesn't get the itch to play "closer to home". Few transfers of note are eligible this year, but it doesn't matter because Hoiberg has a stellar recruiting class that includes Melvin Ejim and Harrison Barnes, who's enticed by a program that's put four players in the NBA during the past two years. Hoiberg fills the remaining vacancies with JuCo players for a roster that looks like this:

Diante Garrett - SR
Wes Eikmeier - JR
Justin Hamilton - JR
Lucca Staiger - SR
Jamie Vanderbeken - SR
Vernon Macklin - SR
Curtis Kelly- SR
Scott Christopherson - JR
Melvin Ejim - FR
Harrison Barnes - FR
Bubu Palo - FR
Calvin Godfrey - FR
Darion "Jake" Anderson - SR
JuCo player - SR

What if turds had wings?
You have too much time on your hands.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Never would've had Royce White.

He came here at the perfect time.

 

[CapnCy]

My turn....

What if Bob Knight would have convinced Coach K to take ISU job instead of Duke...

 

[CtownCyclone]

My turn....

What if Bob Knight would have convinced Coach K to take ISU job instead of Duke...

We never would have attached a special significance to the Tonight Show theme.

 

[83Clone]

What if turds had wings?
You have too much time on your hands.

Wow. Get out your time machine

 

[cmjh10]

We would have won at least 1 NC

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

If Fred is hired then I think Will and Curtis would of probably stayed.

 

[cmjh10]

 

[jsb]

It's interesting, but hell if Fred had come here in 2006, we would probably not have him now if he is at all interested in the NBA.

I think he would have been successful in 2006, but I would guess that he probably learned a lot in those 4 years. One thing that I think we don't notice enough because he started out so good, is that Fred has improved a lot as a coach since 2010. His base was really high, but he's gotten a lot better. Doc Sadler got a lot of credit last year and he deserved it, but part of the reason why the team was better and probably had some better luck finishing games is that Fred has gotten better.

For me, I know that I wouldn't have appreciated the Fred years as much without the terrible stretch between 2002 and 2010. I mean I would have enjoyed it, but I have developed a deep appreciation of winning basketball. I have enjoyed the hell out of every single win and have practically cherished some of the really great moments.

 

[CycloneErik]

Only one? Why can't you be a supportive fan?

 

[MaccloNe]

If Fred is hired then I think Will and Curtis would of probably stayed.

Will stated that would have been the case.

 

[cyclones500]

It's an intriguing exercise. Impressed by the legwork alone...

As others have suggested, the difficulty is how quickly alternate reality would ensue.

After the first couple of years, the real-life details could change radically.

Even if Hoiberg applied the same approach with transfer-U in '06, when existing roster and late-Morgan recruits were part of the picture, Fred's blueprint for recruiting/jucos would begin to emerge. If he led ISU to NCAA tournament bid in Year 2, how much does that change what followed, compared to a 14-18 season?

Would players like Staiger have even been considered by Year 3? Gilstrap in Year 4? It's hard to imagine Hoiberg era without Christopherson as an inspiring hold-over, but would the program have changed enough that Scotty didn't transfer when he did (or wasn't recruited by Hoiberg)?

The mind explodes.

I think Fred 2006 could've gotten more mileage from Clark and Hubalek, during the transition period.

 

[im4cyclones]

The McDermott era did have something of value for Fred's success... Coach Otzelberger. Without Coach Mac, we probably don't have Coach Otz, which means we don't have Mike Taylor, Craig Brackins, Scottie Christopherson, Diante Garrett, or Melvin Ejim.

How does that cupboard look now?

 

[Jsievers24]

The McDermott era did have something of value for Fred's success... Coach Otzelberger. Without Coach Mac, we probably don't have Coach Otz, which means we don't have Mike Taylor, Craig Brackins, Scottie Christopherson, Diante Garrett, or Melvin Ejim.

How does that cupboard look now?

I agree with this. Everything would have changed. There are way too many variables you are not including. This debate is pointless.

 

[DesertClone1]

Harrison Barnes would have been a cyclone. Even Harrison had said things would have been different had Hoiberg been hired.