I sat down during my afternoon off to take an objective look at 3 recent recruiting classes. I wanted to compare, for the sake of discussion, Chizik's first full class (2008) to McCarney's last 2 full classes (2005 & 2006). I decided to exclude the 2007 class from my analysis as it was somewhat of a hybrid, which is difficult to analyze. I was hoping to include a few more classes for a stronger sample, but the work was daunting and I have plans this evening!
Before I explain my process, I want to preface my findings by saying this was not done to tear down one coach and build up another. As I said, I just wanted to take an objective look at the numbers and see how things shake out.
What I did was look at the total number of commits from each class, the total offers EXCLUDING IOWA STATE, and the total BCS offers EXCLUDING IOWA STATE. I then calculated the average offers per commit and the average BCS offers per commit.
Keep in mind that this is entirely based on the Rivals database, which isn't perfect. An example from this year is Ruempolhamer who, according to Chizik, had late offers from Nebraska and Texas Tech. These offers are not listed in the database, but for the sake of consistency I used Rivals data only.
Here's what I found:
2005 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.04
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 0.96
2006 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.03
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 1.17
2007 Class (excluded)
2008 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.43
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 1.65
Again, keep in mind that these averages do NOT include Iowa State. I checked, double-checked, and triple-checked my counts, so I'm confident they are correct based on the Rivals database.
Without adding too much in the way of commentary, I will simply say that I think this shows a strong start to the Chizik era. Mix in an improvement in player retention, and I think we're heading in the right direction.
Before I explain my process, I want to preface my findings by saying this was not done to tear down one coach and build up another. As I said, I just wanted to take an objective look at the numbers and see how things shake out.
What I did was look at the total number of commits from each class, the total offers EXCLUDING IOWA STATE, and the total BCS offers EXCLUDING IOWA STATE. I then calculated the average offers per commit and the average BCS offers per commit.
Keep in mind that this is entirely based on the Rivals database, which isn't perfect. An example from this year is Ruempolhamer who, according to Chizik, had late offers from Nebraska and Texas Tech. These offers are not listed in the database, but for the sake of consistency I used Rivals data only.
Here's what I found:
2005 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.04
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 0.96
2006 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.03
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 1.17
2007 Class (excluded)
2008 Class
Average offers/commitment: 2.43
Avg BCS offers/commitment: 1.65
Again, keep in mind that these averages do NOT include Iowa State. I checked, double-checked, and triple-checked my counts, so I'm confident they are correct based on the Rivals database.
Without adding too much in the way of commentary, I will simply say that I think this shows a strong start to the Chizik era. Mix in an improvement in player retention, and I think we're heading in the right direction.