Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

[aute19]

"It could be an inch, or it could be more."

Not a good way to pick up girls. Trust me.

 

[MNCYWX]

Wouldn't you love to have a job like that?
"When will the project be completed and what will it cost?"
"It could be done in a week or by the end of the year, and will cost somewhere between $300 and $300,000.
"OK. Good job!"

Apples to Oranges. You're talking absolutes with a 'project'. There are no absolutes with weather.

Wow, that's the worst weather prediction I've ever seen.

"It could be an inch, or it could be more."

Really? Way to go out on a limb on that one!!

This storm is still 4 1/2 days out. WAYtoo early to be talking about specific amounts, hence why you aren't getting any answers on that yet.

 

[balken]

Wouldn't you love to have a job like that?
"When will the project be completed and what will it cost?"
"It could be done in a week or by the end of the year, and will cost somewhere between $300 and $300,000.
"OK. Good job!"

If you prefer, we could eliminate weather forecasting. Personally, I will gladly take the information provided by meteorologists, knowing they have limitations based on the continually evolving, and improving, science of weather forecasting.

 

[AllIowaTeams]

Exactly, my two sons also have tickets to the Miranda Lambert & Dirks Bently concert in Hilton on Thursday night. Do you think they might have to end up cancelling this concert?

Honestly, anytime a country concert gets cancelled it's a small victory for humanity.

 

[chuckd4735]

Exactly, my two sons also have tickets to the Miranda Lambert & Dirks Bently concert in Hilton on Thursday night. Do you think they might have to end up cancelling this concert?

The only way the concert gets cancelled is if they cant make it in. That tour had a show last night, and its next show is in Ames. Im assuming they will get here OK. The next night is Champaign could be a problem though.

 

[cobraclone71]

Honestly, anytime a country concert gets cancelled it's a small victory for humanity.

.....I'm sorry what were you saying??

 

[Wesley]

.....I'm sorry what were you saying??

Jesus, this is a sports site.

 

[cloneluke80]

unless she plays electric guitar, then argument still stands... anyway, back to the storm..

 

[alarson]

If you prefer, we could eliminate weather forecasting. Personally, I will gladly take the information provided by meteorologists, knowing they have limitations based on the continually evolving, and improving, science of weather forecasting.

The question i would raise is will there ever come a day where the computer modeling gets good enough to make most human meteorologists (other than the ones working on improving those models) unnecessary?

 

[Wesley]

The question i would raise is will there ever come a day where the computer modeling gets good enough to make most human meteorologists (other than the ones working on improving those models) unnecessary?

Blasephemy.

 

[BigJCy]

I hope its kinda in that 5-8 with no wind

Agree, the wind with the drifting is what is the pain for me.

 

[isuno1fan]

The question i would raise is will there ever come a day where the computer modeling gets good enough to make most human meteorologists (other than the ones working on improving those models) unnecessary?

Only the men. There will always be room for a hottie weather girl.

 

[Iastfan112]

The question i would raise is will there ever come a day where the computer modeling gets good enough to make most human meteorologists (other than the ones working on improving those models) unnecessary?

Maybe not completely but yes the role of pure forecaster is on the decline. Companies are really pushing hard these days for computer programming skills with a background it meteorology.

 

[FDWxMan]

The question i would raise is will there ever come a day where the computer modeling gets good enough to make most human meteorologists (other than the ones working on improving those models) unnecessary?

Doubt it.

Computing power isn't there, plus the cost of developing a network simply to get surface observations at a high enough resolution to make it successful, is going to be prohibitive.

Plus, how are you going to get data at that resolution up through the atmosphere 8km?

You're just building and running models where you're % of unknowns is still >>>>>> than actual input.

 

[FDWxMan]

For example, the data from everything above surface comes from weather balloons. Here are the places balloons are launched near Iowa:

Minneapolis
Aberdeen SD
Quad Cities
Omaha
Topeka

So virtually nothing over Iowa. Tough to make a model that is going to be that nuanced from a starting grid like that.

 

[isuno1fan]

Any new models to report?

 

[CYEATHAWK]

Apples to Oranges. You're talking absolutes with a 'project'. There are no absolutes with weather.



This storm is still 4 1/2 days out. WAYtoo early to be talking about specific amounts, hence why you aren't getting any answers on that yet.

So basically your telling us you don't know. And that's the point. I can ask my 8 year old to look out the window and tell me that. Someone needs a degree for that? Hey, this storm in 7 days is going to be historic, or hysteric. We might get 20 inches.....but we might not. We might have blizzard conditions.....we might not. All I can be sure of is that someone is coming based on climate change, and I won't know until the actual day it arrives on who gets what and when. And then........maybe!

 

[alarson]

Any new models to report?

Should have another one up here shortly

 

[PhillipJCY]

So basically your telling us you don't know. And that's the point. I can ask my 8 year old to look out the window and tell me that. Someone needs a degree for that? Hey, this storm in 7 days is going to be historic, or hysteric. We might get 20 inches.....but we might not. We might have blizzard conditions.....we might not. All I can be sure of is that someone is coming based on climate change, and I won't know until the actual day it arrives on who gets what and when. And then........maybe!

Would your 8 year old be able to predict the possibility of a big storm a week from now if asked? It is asinine to ask for specific amounts when it comes to weather. I am thankful, as most should be, that we have people here who can give us a "Hey, there could be a decent sized storm coming in the next week and a half but things can change before then". I'm not preparing for a snow apocalypse, but I am sure there are some folks out there who like to prepare themselves, family members, or friends for the potential that some nasty weather might hit.

You can rely on your 8 year old, magic 8 ball, psychic medium to tell you the day of the event. Hopefully they also predict the extra supplies you need, if any, when/if you or any family members are snowbound.

 

[alarson]