To Foul or Not to Foul

[Cyrok]

Kenpom brings some statistics to the discussion on whether to foul or not when up 3:

the kenpom.com blog

The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.

A second issue with intentionally fouling that I haven't seen discussed is the potential for the ref to call an intentional or flagrant foul. A poster in another thread stated that Clyburn should have grabbed his man before the ball was thrown in which makes me cringe because then it's up to the official whether or not it to call it a technical.

We're all disappointed with the close games we've lost, but I doubt anyone is as disappointed as Fred and his team are. In spite of the heartbreakers, I am happy with the product these guys are putting on the court.

Go Cyclones!

 

[CysRage]

In Hoiberg we trust

[video=youtube;blxNPHEO51Y]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blxNPHEO51Y[/video]

 

[Cy$]

I don't have a problem with the strategy of not fouling. I do with how the team executes. Giving a decent look to Texas' best 3-point shooter in that situation shouldn't happen. On McLemore's shot, ISU's defense was late switching though overall it was a lucky *** shot.

 

[nallen34]

The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.

If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?

 

[VeloClone]

If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?

Well off the top of my head the team that was ahead could still win in OT. Or that team could still score in whatever time remains in regulation.

 

[CyberJJJ]

If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?

Additionally, they might not get a shot off at all, or the shot they get off isn't a 3.

 

[Bigman38]

those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.

 

[Cyrok]

those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.

Yeah, we've been extremely unlucky.

 

[cmjh10]

Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.

 

[CyDude16]

This topic is new, I've never heard about this who foul or not foul thing.

 

[BringBackJohnny]

IMO - you always foul. I am basing this on my statisits though.

If you foul the other team needs a series of events to come to fruition in order to be successful. While if you do not foul you only need one single event to happen to be successful. Just based on that I would take my chanes of making the other team complete a series of perfect events instead of one singular event.

 

[wonkadog]

We need a coach to get in here and officially end the debate by stating that you never foul in that situation. I believe they all have to promise to uphold this principle before getting their coaching license.

 

[heitclone]

Fouling almost cost us in regulation at Texas, had Lucious not hit his FT's Texas would have been shooting for the game winner. Had we not fouled the worst case scenario would have been OT. Not worth the risk.

 

[Drive4cy]

I'm fine with either strategy too but its all about preference. The fact Fred chose to foul in the Texas game speaks volumes of where he stands on the issue. I can't wait to see what he does the next time he's in that position.

 

[Cydkar]

Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.

Or bad defense, in the case of Texas.

 

[cmjh10]

Or bad defense, in the case of Texas.

Well, yeah, there is this as well...

 

[Benny34]

Bump...

 

[Hayes30]

Bump...

Why?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Still firmly in the not foul camp, but a couple more of these freak shots and I might be persuaded.

 

[Die4Cy]

Not always a good idea to give free throws with time on the clock. Even if he only makes two of the three, or it's only a one and one you still have to get the ball in bounds on their end of the court, something Hogue failed to do late in the overtime period.