Is UNI a barometer?

[khaal53]

Hey guys...this just went up on my site. Tried diving into the theory that the results of the ISU vs UNI game is an indicator for how the rest of the season will go. I offered up my thoughts...what are yours?

Comments are always welcome....10 days!

Geeking out on Iowa State Football and Basketball - current and past: Barometer Game?

 

[cyclones500]

I like to read your statistical breakdowns. Usually offers fresh perspective on what are sometimes common assessments.

The "barometer" factor is one of those. As your analysis shows, results vs. UNI/I-AA isn't a cut-and-dried indicator of season expectations.

Too many variables, for sure — it would be different if I-AA game always came first; UNI is many times a playoff team (but not always) while other FCS teams are much worse; there is a rivalry factor for UNI; opponent's style of play can vary (a 17-7 win is similar to 42-17, if teams' strengths tilt defensive or offensive)...

Also, even if ISU dominates the game, the final winning margin could be misleading. There's little motivation to pile up a lot of points, and it can end up as a tune-up, a chance to distribute the playing time.

Plus, a team might play ugly but improve throughout the year — look at Iowa's close-call vs. UNI in '09 ... every other win that season was by a wider margin, vs. teams that would most likely have beaten UNI without much trouble.

Even with all those considerations, I still think the result of the FCS game provides a general sense of what to expect, at least if it's Game 1. My preseason litmus test (which I've never attempted to "prove" after the fact) applies whether it's UNI or other FCS, and postseason expectations for the opponent don't come into play — FCS games shouldn't be a major challenge, regardless, if an ISU team is any good; and if this game is a struggle, I can't see competing very well in the Big 12.

I follow basically the same principle, but here’s my expectation of ISU record this season, based on UNI result:
Win by 40-plus points: 8-4/7-5*
30-39: 7-5/6-6
20-29: 6-6/5-7
10-19: 5 wins maximum (4-8 more likely)
Fewer than 10 points: 4 wins max (3-9 more likely)
Loss: 3 max (2-10 more likely)

If anyone wants to check this after the season, we’ll see how much water it held.

*I’m not expecting to win 70-3. Obviously, if there were a 60-plus category, the ceiling for wins would be higher. I just doubt it will happen.

 

[cycloneG]

At UCONN is going to be the first barometer game.

 

[acgclone]

Not really. I'd definitely say your team has problems if you lose to them, but you can certainly beat them and still not be very good.

 

[acgclone]

At UCONN is going to be the first barometer game.

I would say that Iowa really is our first barometer game. We are at home, so there is no reason that we should get pounded 35-3 like we have been lately by them. I think for us to be a good team, you need to show that you're competitive with Iowa. Obviously if we win, that bodes well, but even if we lose, I'm hoping to see a fairly close game.

If we aren't within 17 points at home versus them, we are looking at a pretty rough season with our schedule, IMO.

 

[DRCHIRO]

If we lose or sneak by them, I think it may be a long year. On the other hand, if we blow them out and own them (like we should), I don't think that tells us anything other than we did what we should have done to them.

 

[cycloneG]

I would say that Iowa really is our first barometer game. We are at home, so there is no reason that we should get pounded 35-3 like we have been lately by them. I think for us to be a good team, you need to show that you're competitive with Iowa. Obviously if we win, that bodes well, but even if we lose, I'm hoping to see a fairly close game.

If we aren't within 17 points at home versus them, we are looking at a pretty rough season with our schedule, IMO.

I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.

 

[ISUCyclone06]

I don't think you can draw any conclusion or basis off the score of the game. However I do believe you can break down how well the offense/defense is by the way they play. If you decipher the plays and look at as that will be improved with time/experience or a certain player/position was plain out-manned/out-talented etc.

 

[DRCHIRO]

I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.

Last year you could have called it Iowas "super bowl"

 

[dualthreat]

Good write up.

Its really tough to tell if this game is a barometer game. Our guys could over look UNI, or they could come out with everything they've got-- coaching staff included.

I thought the 2008 SDSU game was a barometer game before the season started. I laid out the same situation as cyclones500 did, and we won 44-6. I thought that should translate into a 6 or 7 win season. We forced like 6 turnovers and dominated the whole game. But we of course only won 2 games that year.

I don't think rhoads will take UNI lightly. I see us getting ahead 21-3 or so at halftime and then tacking on a score and shutting it down. 28-10 or so. But if it doesn't happen that way, i won't be surprised. won't be discouraged either.

 

[rholtgraves]

I don't think you will be able to tell too much from the first game of the season. With a new QB who is a new system it may take a couple of games to guage how good the team will be. Plus look at the Iowa UNI game two years ago. They almost lost that game and then went on to win the Orange Bowl.

 

[dualthreat]

Last year you could have called it Iowas "super bowl"

i know thats an old joke, but i honestly think that was the case last year. Compare how well they played that game to how ****** they played @AZ 7 days later.

They would have beaten alabama if they didn't play ISU that day, and ISU would have beaten them if they played like they did the next week.

That screams super bowl

ferentz wants to put his foot on rhoad's throat so he doesn't fall behind. Obviously he is way in front now though.

 

[lakesbison]

UNI is a DUMBometer !

 

[ajk4st8]

Wow didnt realize we are 5-3 in our last games vs UNI. ouch.

 

[tm3308]

I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.

How so? I think it's actually been relatively accurate for ISU (and often times for Iowa, as well).

I won't dive into the pre-2000 games, as I didn't see them, and neither team was very good at the time. And I'm not including the 2001 game, since it was played at the end of the season.

2000: ISU wins (don't know the score, but I don't figure it was too close), finishes 9-3
2002: ISU wins against a very good Iowa team, finishes 7-5 (could very easily have been better)
2003: Iowa wins handily, ISU finishes 2-10
2004: very competitive game, ISU finishes 7-5
2005: ISU wins handily, goes 7-5
2006: ISU competitive in a loss against a 6-6 Iowa team, finishes 4-8
2007: ISU wins an ugly game between two bad teams, goes 3-9
2008: ISU loses just an ugly game on both sides (thanks to the weather), goes 2-10
2009: ISU runs into a buzzsaw, but goes 6-6
2010: Another buzzsaw, 5-7

I think that Ferentz has indeed put more emphasis on the ISU game since Rhoads was brought in. He lost the first 5 against Mac, and the first game against Chizik. We've put the pedal to the metal in each of the last two years, as if to try and prove a point.

But for the better part of the last decade, the game was an accurate barometer for ISU (and in many cases, Iowa as well).

To be quite honest, I'm expecting this year's game to be a little more like the 2004 matchup. Obviously I think Iowa will win, but I think it's going to be competitive. This year it may not indicate that ISU will have a good record, as the schedule is brutal. But I think they could have a pretty solid team regardless of record.

 

[cyclones500]

I think it's actually been relatively accurate for ISU ... I won't dive into the pre-2000 games, as I didn't see them, and neither team was very good at the time. And I'm not including the 2001 game, since it was played at the end of the season.

These sorts of discussions are speculative, because the past doesn't predict the future — but if we're talking patterns, ISU-Iowa has been a fairly accurate predictor. It was even more so prior to '08.

In the modern series, encompassing 34 seasons from 1977-2010:
* When ISU won (11 times), the Cyclones finished with a losing record only 4 times ('82, '98, '99, '08 ... 5-5-1 in '81).
* When ISU lost (23 times), the Cyclones reached a bowl only 3 times ('77, '04, '09).

I think my numbers are accurate -- anyone may feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Keep in mind, a lot of this has to do with that 15-year losing streak, when Iowa was good-to-great and ISU was mediocre-to-awful. Iowa State wasn't likely to win the rivalry game OR have a good season, so the barometer was bound to work.

Even if you consider that, a few of the outliers, either way, were close enough games to be misleading .... '77; '99; '04; '08.

 

[cyhiphopp]

UNI is a DUMBometer !

That may just be the dumbest thing you have ever posted. And that's saying a lot.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

If we lose or sneak by them, I think it may be a long year. On the other hand, if we blow them out and own them (like we should), I don't think that tells us anything other than we did what we should have done to them.

Signed,

2009 Iowa football team

 

[CRcyclone6]

Good write up.

Its really tough to tell if this game is a barometer game. Our guys could over look UNI, or they could come out with everything they've got-- coaching staff included.

I thought the 2008 SDSU game was a barometer game before the season started. I laid out the same situation as cyclones500 did, and we won 44-6. I thought that should translate into a 6 or 7 win season. We forced like 6 turnovers and dominated the whole game. But we of course only won 2 games that year.

I don't think rhoads will take UNI lightly. I see us getting ahead 21-3 or so at halftime and then tacking on a score and shutting it down. 28-10 or so. But if it doesn't happen that way, i won't be surprised. won't be discouraged either.

I hope to God this doesn't happen, but like you said below, I don't think it will either. Opening game of the year always worries me.

 

[cycloneG]

How so? I think it's actually been relatively accurate for ISU (and often times for Iowa, as well).

I won't dive into the pre-2000 games, as I didn't see them, and neither team was very good at the time. And I'm not including the 2001 game, since it was played at the end of the season.

2000: ISU wins (don't know the score, but I don't figure it was too close), finishes 9-3
2002: ISU wins against a very good Iowa team, finishes 7-5 (could very easily have been better)
2003: Iowa wins handily, ISU finishes 2-10
2004: very competitive game, ISU finishes 7-5
2005: ISU wins handily, goes 7-5
2006: ISU competitive in a loss against a 6-6 Iowa team, finishes 4-8
2007: ISU wins an ugly game between two bad teams, goes 3-9
2008: ISU loses just an ugly game on both sides (thanks to the weather), goes 2-10
2009: ISU runs into a buzzsaw, but goes 6-6
2010: Another buzzsaw, 5-7

I think that Ferentz has indeed put more emphasis on the ISU game since Rhoads was brought in. He lost the first 5 against Mac, and the first game against Chizik. We've put the pedal to the metal in each of the last two years, as if to try and prove a point.

But for the better part of the last decade, the game was an accurate barometer for ISU (and in many cases, Iowa as well).

To be quite honest, I'm expecting this year's game to be a little more like the 2004 matchup. Obviously I think Iowa will win, but I think it's going to be competitive. This year it may not indicate that ISU will have a good record, as the schedule is brutal. But I think they could have a pretty solid team regardless of record.

These sorts of discussions are speculative, because the past doesn't predict the future — but if we're talking patterns, ISU-Iowa has been a fairly accurate predictor. It was even more so prior to '08.

In the modern series, encompassing 34 seasons from 1977-2010:
* When ISU won (11 times), the Cyclones finished with a losing record only 4 times ('82, '98, '99, '08 ... 5-5-1 in '81).
* When ISU lost (23 times), the Cyclones reached a bowl only 3 times ('77, '04, '09).

I think my numbers are accurate -- anyone may feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Keep in mind, a lot of this has to do with that 15-year losing streak, when Iowa was good-to-great and ISU was mediocre-to-awful. Iowa State wasn't likely to win the rivalry game OR have a good season, so the barometer was bound to work.

Even if you consider that, a few of the outliers, either way, were close enough games to be misleading .... '77; '99; '04; '08.

Let's look at the last 13 years since the 15 year streak ended.

Iowa State's won seven and finished with a winning record three times during those seven seasons. In the six losing years Iowa State's finished with a winning record twice. That's a predictability of 54%. Only slightly better than a coin toss.