Pavano throws his 5th CG of the year

[Bader]

Alright Twins fans, Super Pavario just pitched his 5th CG this year, and 7th career shutout, blanking the O's 5 - 0. He's 12-6 on the year with a 3.26 ERA, his WHIP is 1.01

Do you want Carl back on the staff after this year? The way he's pitching he'll be able to reel in a healthy new contract next season. I for one want him on the staff, if nothing else, to be the veteran presence on the staff that shows Franchise you don't have to throw your arm out every time you're on the mound.

I hope Carl gives the team a "home town" discount, the Twins desperately need him. The last thing he needs at this point in his career is to demand another NY contract and fall apart again.

A staff of:
Pavano
Liriano
Duensing
Baker
Slowey/Blackburn

the rest of the way I'd be pretty happy with, the top 3 starting in the playoffs if we make it.

 

[RhoadsRage]

I like CP and would want him back if it doesn't break the bank.......still mad that we didn't try harder to get Cliff Lee!!! Would LOVE to get Haren for the stretch run but, as a Twins fan, I know that's TOTALLY unrealistic.

 

[Bader]

If its true that they offered Ramos, Ben Revere, and Slowey then I'm glad they didn't go higher than that.

The Mariners just needed pro ready fielders, and Texas gave em what they needed.

The Twins lineup is too thin to lose any of the guys we have in the majors right now.

 

[jtd9046]

You have Duensing in your playoff rotation without making a start yet this year???

I mean I hope he shows promise tomorrow like the rest of us, but if that's the case going into the playoffs (if they make it) it will probably end like the last few appearances. The Twins need a true #1 to make a legit run, IMO. Not hoping a couple #2's like Pavano and Liriano can pitch like #1's in the playoffs.

 

[Iastfan112]

You have Duensing in your playoff rotation without making a start yet this year???

I mean I hope he shows promise tomorrow like the rest of us, but if that's the case going into the playoffs (if they make it) it will probably end like the last few appearances. The Twins need a true #1 to make a legit run, IMO. Not hoping a couple #2's like Pavano and Liriano can pitch like #1's in the playoffs.

Liriano is a #1. Mid 90's heat, filthy slider, above average changeup. He strikes out over 1 per inning, limits walks, induces a lot of grounders. He is tied for the highest WAR(wins over replacement player) in the majors for pitchers. His FIP(fielding independent pitching) is a ludicrously low 2.18, he has all the hallmarks of being an ace in the MLB. Pavano is a serviceable 2nd or 3rd arm in the playoffs, if you looks at the underlying stats he's roughly the same as a Pettite, CJ Wilson, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, ect.

What needs to happen is either A. Baker or Slowey pitch significantly better as they both have been bad the past month and a half or B. yes the Twins ideally acquire a pitcher. The thing is, how much of the future are your willing to sacrifice in order to make a more serious run at the world series. Oswalt or Haren are top of the line starters but both would cost a lot in terms of prospect and both(though more so for Oswalt) cause finacially difficulties next year when the expensive Mauer contract kicks in and quite a few players are in line for raises. Your other option would be to go after Lily or Ben Sheets like options who would be much cheaper and come with no long term commitment. They are not however, aces and thus are more just useful if you view the Baker, Duensing, Slowey trio to be unsatisfactory for the rest of the season.

Lest anyone forget, last year against the Yankees it was not the starting pitching that failed, Baker was awesome in game 163, Pavano was excellent and so was Blackburn. No it was the offense that scored 6 totals runs over the 3 games.

 

[jtd9046]

...He has all the hallmarks of being an ace in the MLB.

I'm not arguing that point. The fact is those, given all of those stats, it's still not showing up in the W-L column as an ace does. So right now, this season, he is not an ace. He is a strong #2 along with Pavano.

The hitting did let down the team last year in the playoffs, but I'd argue that the Twins could benefit from that shutdown 'ace'. When you have a pitcher on the mound where the team knows that every single time he's out there, you're going to have a shot to win... it allows the team to play loose. The Twins simply don't have that right now.

 

[Iastfan112]

I'm not arguing that point. The fact is those, given all of those stats, it's still not showing up in the W-L column as an ace does. So right now, this season, he is not an ace. He is a strong #2 along with Pavano.

The hitting did let down the team last year in the playoffs, but I'd argue that the Twins could benefit from that shutdown 'ace'. When you have a pitcher on the mound where the team knows that every single time he's out there, you're going to have a shot to win... it allows the team to play loose. The Twins simply don't have that right now.

Wins and Losses are just about the most terrible way to gauge a pitcher by, he has no control over if the offense scores 10 runs or 1. I'll relate it back tot the playoffs last year, Blackburn and Pavano pitched well but didn't get the win because our offense was terrible(and Joe Nathan).

 

[jtd9046]

Wins and Losses are just about the most terrible way to gauge a pitcher by, he has no control over if the offense scores 10 runs or 1. I'll relate it back tot the playoffs last year, Blackburn and Pavano pitched well but didn't get the win because our offense was terrible(and Joe Nathan).

Yet, wins and losses are the only thing stat that actually count in baseball. Don't get me wrong, I think Liriano is a stud... he's just not an ace right now.

Liriano is getting 5.75 runs per game in support. Not exactly horrible.

Pavano is at 5.26.
Baker 6.10
Blackburn 8.91 (holy ****)
Slowey 8.6 (holy ****)

 

[Iastfan112]

Yet, wins and losses are the only thing stat that actually count in baseball. Don't get me wrong, I think Liriano is a stud... he's just not an ace right now.

Liriano is getting 5.75 runs per game in support. Not exactly horrible.

Pavano is at 5.26.
Baker 6.10
Blackburn 8.91 (holy ****)
Slowey 8.6 (holy ****)

Yes but it is extremely stupid to ascribe wins and losses to one player(aka the pitcher) when the sport is extremely team oriented. Half the game he has absolutely no influence over(the hitting of his team) and the other half he can't control the relative range, skill and positioning of the defense behind him..

Also in relative terms thats lousy run support as well, its 13th worst in the AL(shouldn't be compared with NL as having a pitcher hit will severely curtail run scoring). Of the 12 above him 8 are from bottom dwellers, aka Seattle, Baltimore, KC, Toronto, Cleveland which explains why they are doing lousy, they don't score runs.

 

[jtd9046]

Dude. I get what you're saying... you can stop trying to make statistical arguments for Liriano. He is pitching well, the fact of the matter is that the Twins do not have an ace on the staff right now and that includes Liriano.

 

[peteypie]

I picked him up for my fantasy team along with a staff of Petite, Ubaldo Jimeniz, and Josh Johnson, and my staff still regularly gets beat......WTF?

 

[GeronimusClone]

The thing is, how much of the future are your willing to sacrifice in order to make a more serious run at the world series.

One of the main reasons, besides money, that Santana moved on was because the Twins were always planning for the future and never playing to win NOW. I believe he said something to the effect "We are always planning for the future. When does the future get here and we try to win now?"
If the Twins don't win a World Series soon, with the talents of Mauer and Morneau, it will be one of the biggest failures ever. Make the moves to get it done now, Twins.

 

[bawbie]

Dude. I get what you're saying... you can stop trying to make statistical arguments for Liriano. He is pitching well, the fact of the matter is that the Twins do not have an ace on the staff right now and that includes Liriano.

Is Roy Halladay (10-8) not an ace this year because he's 10-8? Even though his stats say he's pitching better than he did the last two years?

The fact is that your definition of "ace" is ridiculous.

 

[jtd9046]

The fact is that your definition of "ace" is ridiculous.

Define 'ace' for me then. Please do. To me, an ace is a guy where the team knows EVERY TIME he steps on the field that they have a better than 90% chance of winning. Liriano is strong right now, but he's not an ace. An ace doesn't give up 13 runs in two games against a division rival in a pennant race like he has the last two against DET.


American league 'aces' that would get chosen over Liriano in a heartbeat right now if you had to win 1 game (being conservative):
Lee
Hernandez
Lester
Price
Sabathia
Greinke
Niemann
Verlander

 

[MNclone]

Pavano has been an absolute stud this year. If he keeps this up, I may have to start sporting a "Pavstache" of my own!

 

[Wesley]

Yet, wins and losses are the only thing stat that actually count in baseball. Don't get me wrong, I think Liriano is a stud... he's just not an ace right now.

Liriano is getting 5.75 runs per game in support. Not exactly horrible.

Pavano is at 5.26.
Baker 6.10
Blackburn 8.91 (holy ****)
Slowey 8.6 (holy ****)

For me the bottom three are a disappointment this year for me. I had all three and dropped them on my Fantasy team. Pavano and Liriano are the movers this year.

 

[CyJack13]

Define 'ace' for me then. Please do. To me, an ace is a guy where the team knows EVERY TIME he steps on the field that they have a better than 90% chance of winning. Liriano is strong right now, but he's not an ace. An ace doesn't give up 13 runs in two games against a division rival in a pennant race like he has the last two against DET.


American league 'aces' that would get chosen over Liriano in a heartbeat right now if you had to win 1 game (being conservative):
Lee
Hernandez
Lester
Price
Sabathia
Greinke
Niemann
Verlander

Greinke is 6-9, by your own definition he can't be an ace, and Hernandez is 7-6 too.

 

[jtd9046]

Greinke is 6-9, by your own definition he can't be an ace, and Hernandez is 7-6 too.

On teams 20 games below .500. Much different story. You'd still take them without thinking over Liriano as a #1 right now.

Do you Twins fans really actually think this team has an 'ace' right now and that Liriano is it?

 

[jdoggivjc]

Yet, wins and losses are the only thing stat that actually count in baseball. Don't get me wrong, I think Liriano is a stud... he's just not an ace right now.

Liriano is getting 5.75 runs per game in support. Not exactly horrible.

Pavano is at 5.26.
Baker 6.10
Blackburn 8.91 (holy ****)
Slowey 8.6 (holy ****)

First off, where are you getting 5.75 runs per game in support? The guy has pitched in 19 games this year and has gotten a total of 71 runs, good for 3.74 runs per game in support. Nowhere close to the 5.75 you are suggesting he's getting. Second, if you notice below, Liriano tends to get his "run support" in several games when he doesn't necessarily need it, such as 4/15 against Boston, 4/21 against Cleveland, 5/2 against Cleveland, and 7-21 against Cleveland. Third, as bolded below, the guy has had only 4 bad games all year - games where he has given up 4 or more earned runs.

4/09 CHW W 4-3 F/11 (ND) (3 ER)
4/15 BOS W 8-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/27 DET W 2-0 (W) (0 ER)
5/02 CLE W 8-3 (W) (3 ER)
5/08 BAL L 3-7 (L) (5 ER)
5/15 NYY L 1-7 (L) (3 ER)
5/20 BOS L 2-6 (L) (5 ER)
5/26 NYY L 2-3 (ND) (2 ER)
5/31 SEA W 5-4 (W) (3 ER)
6/05 OAK W 4-3 (ND) (1 ER)
6/11 ATL W 2-1 (W) (1 ER)
6/17 COL L 1-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/23 MIL L 3-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/28 DET L 5-7 (L) (6 ER)
7/03 TB L 6-8 (ND) (1 ER)
7/09 DET L 3-7 (L) (7 ER)
7/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)
Francisco Liriano Game Log | twinsbaseball.com: Stats

Bottom line - Liriano has a 3.54 ERA for this season and he's getting 3.74 runs per game in support, and he has pitched only 4 games this season where the onus is on him. Is it any wonder the guy has an 8-7 record? His offense isn't getting the job done for him.

On teams 20 games below .500. Much different story. You'd still take them without thinking over Liriano as a #1 right now.

Do you Twins fans really actually think this team has an 'ace' right now and that Liriano is it?

Yes - Liriano is pitching "lights out" according to the stats above. He just isn't getting help where and when needed from his offense.

 

[GeronimusClone]

On teams 20 games below .500. Much different story. You'd still take them without thinking over Liriano as a #1 right now.

Do you Twins fans really actually think this team has an 'ace' right now and that Liriano is it?

Every team has an "ace." It's a very debatable term. To me the term "ace" means the team's best pitcher.