WILLIAMS: Big 12 Week 12 ATS Picks

Last week: 2-3
Against the spread on the year: 34-28

TCU (-2.5) at Baylor — This no doubt feels like a merciless trap for public bettors. With TCU coming off of a convincing marquee win in Austin and Baylor getting trounced by Kansas State, it feels like this spread should be a touchdown plus. Laying less than a field goal though, against my better judgment, I’m stilling with the team that has been more consistent all season long. I fear I will regret this but am openly cheering for the Horned Frogs and the Big 12 to get a playoff berth.

THE PICK: TCU 31, Baylor 27

Kansas State (-7.5) at West Virginia — Is there a team in college football that is more difficult to project on a week-to-week basis than Kansas State? I honestly have no idea anymore when it comes to picking Wildcat games. My hunch here is that Vegas wants just to take West Virginia, hence the hook at 7.5. I won’t bite. 

THE PICK: Kansas State 30, West Virginia 21 

Texas (-9) at Kansas — It’s been six years since Texas has covered a point spread against Kansas. Last year, of course, the Longhorns lost to the then lowly Jayhawks. I actually understand why the spread is where it is, but that’s still too many points. How motivated will Texas be this weekend? I can’t imagine very. Meanwhile for Kansas, it’s still Texas coming to town. Quick note: Steve Sarkisian is 11-11 in his two seasons at Texas. Tom Herman made and won the Sugar Bowl vs. Georgia in his second season at the helm. 

THE PICK: Kansas 31, Texas 30

Texas Tech at Iowa State (-3.5) — It’s a game that even given the circumstances surrounding a frustrating season, Iowa State should still win. It’s going to be freezing cold on Saturday night in Ames and personally, I prefer the team with the elite defense, which is Iowa State. Feels a lot like the West Virginia game a few weeks ago. I do have a healthy amount of respect for this next Texas Tech coaching staff and do not believe that the Red Raiders will roll over at any point in this one though. 

THE PICK: Iowa State 20, Texas Tech 14

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-7.5) — I saw enough of Oklahoma State last week to not be impressed. Iowa State should have won that game by three scores but turned the football over five times, a death wish for any football team. Of course, Spencer Sanders playing makes a big difference for the Cowboys. But if he is healthy, why didn’t Sanders play more last week against the Cyclones? So bizzarre. 

THE PICK: Oklahoma 34, Oklahoma State 24