Sep 29, 2018; Lawrence, KS, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Justice Hill (5) hurdles over Kansas Jayhawks safety Bryce Torneden (1) in the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 29, 2018; Lawrence, KS, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Justice Hill (5) hurdles over Kansas Jayhawks safety Bryce Torneden (1) in the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
I love taking Iowa State and the points here and strongly considered picking the upset. But the older I get, the less interested I am in blind faith. To this point, we’ve seen no consistency out of Iowa State’s offense. Granted, I really think that Oklahoma State is an overrated football team. I also believe that Iowa State is better than it’s 1-3 record would indicate on paper. This game smells a bit like Texas Tech a year ago… Still, I’ll go against that and will make the Cyclones “prove it” before I go on the record predicting road upsets over top 25 teams.
I think Iowa State’s offense will finally gain some traction and Zeb Noland will have his best statistical game so far this season. Defensively, the Cyclones force a couple crucial turnovers in order to seal Iowa State’s first victory in Stillwater since 2000.
Oklahoma State has a new defensive coordinator this year and has been much more impressive as a whole on that side of the ball. They are fast and aggressive so the key for Iowa State is to keep pounding away and take the opportunities that exist. I like Iowa State’s ability to at least contain Justice Hill. I think this goes right down to the wire.
Here comes the hot streak (I think/hope). I’m not sure what to think of Oklahoma State other than to note the Cowboys’ big-play capabilities abound and Justice Hill is the most productive back in the league. “So what?” says Jon Heacock’s defense. ISU finally shows glimpses of a consistent offensive attack and keeps Okie State off the field just enough (with the help of a couple takeaways) to eke out its first conference win of the season.
I said ISU gets one of either TCU & OSU. I picked ISU vs TCU, so I have to pick OSU here (like reverse psychology). The inconsistency of this offense (and the inconsistency on OSU’s defense) makes any pick a total shot in the dark.
Cornelius’ running ability takes advantage of ISU adjustments and frees up Justice Hill. ISU offense is better but struggles with the pressure from the OSU front four. It will be a frustrating game unless ISU capitalizes on turnovers.
It wouldn’t surprise me if this game turns into a shootout, much like it did last year in Ames. The Iowa State offense should play much better (though they will still have a few hiccups here and there). On the other side of the ball, I think the Cyclones will struggle a bit to contain Justice Hill. After regulation ends in a tie, ISU strikes first with a field goal in overtime and then the defense comes up with a huge turnover to escape with a win.
The Cyclone defense has proven itself to be quite salty and is 15th in schedule-adjusted yards per play at CFB Analytics. The offense, however, has been a different story where the Cyclones have lacked consistency though they have played against two top 25 defenses and Oklahoma. Last game out Zeb struggled with consistency but the ground game was able to find success. Iowa State will need more of that to come out with a win in Stillwater but they’ll also need much more production through the air.
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