Need some help from Football Experts!

Discussion in 'Football' started by besserheimerphat, Dec 6, 2013.

  1. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    #1 besserheimerphat, Dec 6, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2013
    Project Finished - Need some help from Football Experts!

    Update: So I just finished the project I was working on, and as promised here is a copy. I pulled out some of the technical stuff that nobody else probably cares about. Thanks again for your help!

    View attachment Elicitation of Expert Opinion on College Football Offenses - CF.pdf
    [HR][/HR]

    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    Estimate of Points Scored per Game Per Team
    Same thing, for point scored.

    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!
     
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  2. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    Pure guesses.
     
  3. #3 Bret44, Dec 6, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2013
     
  4. Cypower69

    Cypower69 Member

    Sep 4, 2013
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    #4 Cypower69, Dec 6, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2013
    Ha! What makes you think there is a single football expert on here? Clearly you are new to this site.
     
  5. Luth4Cy

    Luth4Cy Well-Known Member

    Sep 19, 2012
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    Yards per rush: 4, 3-5

    Yards per pass: 8, 4-12

    All plays: 6, 3-12

    Points per game: 30, 14-41

    College football player? No
     
  6. Question:

    For PPG, do you want total? Or per team.


    Mine was based off the total scored.
     
  7. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    I meant per team, thanks for catching that. I edited the original post. For your entry I'll just divide it by two (unless you want to specify a different range).
     

  8. Thanks, I edited my entry.
     
  9. IAStubborn

    IAStubborn Well-Known Member

    Aug 16, 2012
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    Estimate of Yards per Rush

    Average 4.5 yrds 80% are between -2 yds and 10 yds

    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    7.5 yds and 80% between 0 and 20 yds

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.
    Avg. 5.5yds 80% between -2 yds and 15 yds

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.
    Assume you mean per team not total. I will say the average is around 30 pts per game 80% 10 to 45 pts

    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    Yes former college player

    I would suggest linking a survey. This isnt pure with everyone seeing each others fwiw
     
  10. 00clone

    00clone Well-Known Member

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    He's been here longer than you, noob.

    :pwink:
     
  11. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    I did the single team.
     
  12. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I know that and it was something I considered going in. But if I were doing this type of thing for work I'd probably get a group of experts together in the same room to talk it out for an hour until we all settled on our priors.
     
  13. Tre4ISU

    Tre4ISU Well-Known Member

    Dec 30, 2008
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    Yards per rush: 3.3 Ave 1.5-7

    Yards per pass: 6.5 Ave 0-15

    All plays: 4.5 3-11

    Points per game: 30 14-35

    College football player? No
     
  14. berther48

    berther48 Active Member

    Jul 10, 2009
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    #14 berther48, Dec 7, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2013
    Yo, go to ESPN,
    go NCAAF,
    find the STATS heading,
    open it ,
    scroll down
    go to Team stats,
    find rushing ,
    go to ave per team,
    copy and paste the column to a Excel sheet ,
    add the averages and divide the sum by 123 ( # of team in FBS)
    then do the same for all the other stats you want.

    Coached football middle school, high school, classes 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A.
    Now retired, Cyclone Fan since 1958.

    Simple.
     
  15. clonedude

    clonedude Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2006
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    Did you read his post? He doesn't want the actual numbers. He wants everyone's best guesses as to what they think they are?
     
  16. MeanDean

    MeanDean Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
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    Like the first reply, just guesses. I don't follow the statistics much at all.
     
  17. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    Bump

    Thanks for the replies so far! Keep them coming!
     
  18. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    One last bump. I've got enough data to work with, but of course more is always better. Thanks again guys, and I'll post my results after I complete the paper at the end of the week.
     
  19. coolerifyoudid

    coolerifyoudid Well-Known Member

    Feb 8, 2013
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    Estimate of Yards per Rush

    4.5 and 75% of all rushes are between 2-6 yards

    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    9 yards 75% between 5-15

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    7 yards per play 75% between 5-15

    Estimate of Points Scored per Game Per Team
    21 pts 75% between 14-28

    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    No
     
  20. besserheimerphat

    besserheimerphat Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    Bump - project is finished, see the first post for the .pdf
     

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