Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by Hacksaw, Feb 27, 2014.

  1. Hacksaw

    Hacksaw New Member

    Feb 21, 2013
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    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    OFFPzYq.png
    [HR][/HR]For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    zKt2TqY.png

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.
     
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  2. gogagig

    gogagig Well-Known Member

    May 21, 2008
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    Nerds like me like nerd stats like this.
     
  3. JP4CY

    JP4CY Well-Known Member

    Dec 19, 2008
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    Rematch with WVU is most probable then.
     
  4. wonkadog

    wonkadog Well-Known Member

    Apr 17, 2006
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    I'd guess quite a few of us would reverse those percentages for the KSU game.
     
  5. MNclone

    MNclone Well-Known Member

    Apr 10, 2006
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    Burnsville, MN
    Very cool. Thanks for putting this together. Lots still up for grabs. Scary that ISU has three tossups left.
     
  6. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    Omaha
    This says we avoided playing the first day....and we have a 55,50,60 per cent chance of winning our last three games.
     
  7. every_yard

    every_yard Member

    Aug 25, 2006
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    I believe the most important game (that ISU is not playing in) the rest of the way, is Kansas State at Oklahoma State. A win by OK St would go a long ways towards us getting a 2 or 3 seed in the tourney.
     
  8. 1UNI2ISU

    1UNI2ISU Active Member

    Jan 30, 2013
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    Waterloo
    Hacksaw is the best. Love his stuff for both The Valley and the Big 12!
     
  9. jboffer

    jboffer Active Member

    Jul 27, 2009
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    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.
     
  10. JP4CY

    JP4CY Well-Known Member

    Dec 19, 2008
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    We need Oklahoma and Tech to beat Texas at home. Man, that would be great.
     
  11. Mr Janny

    Mr Janny Welcome to the Office of Secret Intelligence
    Staff Member Bookie

    Mar 27, 2006
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    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.
     
  12. mcdrier

    mcdrier Member

    Dec 11, 2013
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    In the words of Darth Vader, 'Impressive, MOST impressive!'

    That is cool. I wish getting the second seed was the greatest scenario, but being the 3rd seed is better than being the 4th seed.

    I was a little surprised that the odds of us winning is higher at KSU than winning at Baylor. I would have flipped them around.

    In all reality, I would hope we can get one of those road games, and if I was a betting man, I would put my money on winning in Waco, than winning in the Little Apple.

    It would be nice to get as many sweeps in conference play as we could. I think we had 3 sweeps last year (Baylor, TCU, and WV). So far this year we only have TCU and Tech. It would be nice to add Okie St, KSU and Baylor!
     
  13. 83Clone

    83Clone Well-Known Member

    Apr 27, 2006
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    Yeah we need to win an OU needs to lose otherwise odds are we are in the 4/5 game
     
  14. jboffer

    jboffer Active Member

    Jul 27, 2009
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    Hmmmm that is a good point. The most important thing is that we avoid the 4/5 game.

    But... but... second place...
     
  15. Rhoadhoused

    Rhoadhoused Well-Known Member

    Apr 27, 2010
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    I think there are advantages to both the 2 and the 3.

    If we can get 2nd outright, that is important to me as an ISU fan as far as conference finish.

    2nd seed most likely gets an opponent on a back to back.

    3rd seed likely plays a less talented team.
     
  16. cycloneted

    cycloneted Active Member

    Apr 19, 2006
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    I found a picture of Khaal when he opened up this thread, reacting to someone trying to horn in on his stat game:

    [​IMG]
     
  17. tim_redd

    tim_redd Well-Known Member

    Mar 29, 2006
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    If we beat K-State I think we are guaranteed to finish above them. We need some Texas and Oklahoma losses next week.
     
  18. WIB

    WIB Well-Known Member

    Oct 2, 2010
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    I'd prefer we just win the next 12 and quit looking at seeding scenarios.
     
  19. Cyclonin

    Cyclonin Well-Known Member

    Feb 18, 2012
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    Is 2 or 3 better? That is most likely against Baylor or WV. To be honest, I feel a lot more comfortable against WV.
     
  20. KCCLONE712

    KCCLONE712 Member

    Jun 29, 2011
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