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Thread: Don't Punt!

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    Don't Punt!

    I know this has been brought up before, but maybe if Van Der Kamp can't get it done, iowa state could look into a philosophy like this!

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oIsKkyU0xI]YouTube - ‪High School Team That Doesn't Punt - NFL Films Presents‬‎[/ame]



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by dualthreat View Post
    I know this has been brought up before, but maybe if Van Der Kamp can't get it done, iowa state could look into a philosophy like this!

    YouTube - ‪High School Team That Doesn't Punt - NFL Films Presents‬‎


    it worked for the team in Friday Night Lights, always go for 2!



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    some of those teams with really good offenses, i question why they don't go for it more...



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by dualthreat View Post
    some of those teams with really good offenses, i question why they don't go for it more...

    didnt watch the video, but not punting ever would lose us more games... we are not a dynamic defense or offense yet... and without that, giving up field position all the time would be insane.



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Any fan of ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook, aka Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ), knows that he's been preaching this for years. In fact, here is an entire article on the subject, complete with statistical evidence to support his punting theory, which is outlined below:

    TMQ: Punting the punt - ESPN Page 2


    The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify:

    • Inside your own 20, punt.
    • From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
    • From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
    • From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
    • From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
    • From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
    • Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    This may work in high school but I think giving up the ball on your own 20 at the college level, you're asking for trouble. The talent level increases considerably when you're playing DI football...even if you're one of the "weaker teams". In an evenly matched game, field position is key. Unless it's 4th and 2 on the opponent's side of the field, you're risking giving up key field position.

    I can only imagine coaches going for it on 4th down in their own territory if
    1) the game's on the line and you need to convert, in which case you really have no choice
    or 2) you have TONS of confidence in both your offense and defense, to either convert on 4th or to stop the other team from scoring in a short field.

    And even if you think you're doing something like Texas vs some small FBS school, you're talking about catching flak for "unsportsmanlike" conduct by going for it on 4th down when you're up by 45 in the 4th quarter.



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by CarolinaCy View Post
    Any fan of ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook, aka Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ), knows that he's been preaching this for years. In fact, here is an entire article on the subject, complete with statistical evidence to support his punting theory, which is outlined below:

    TMQ: Punting the punt - ESPN Page 2


    The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify:

    Inside your own 20, punt.
    From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
    From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
    From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
    From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
    From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
    Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.
    Sorry, but i hope to god my team never goes for it on fouth and 2 from my 21 yard line (unless down in 4th quarter, obviously). I understand the principle, but be realistic. That would be nuts.



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    I didn't watch the video, but I've read a little about that coach's no-punt philosophy.

    From what I gather, the underlying idea is that he figured that the advantage of an offense using four plays instead of three to get first downs outweighs the field-position tactic of punting.

    From that standpoint it may make sense if a team's offense is based on shorter-yardage plays, even if you're in your own territory.

    Consider a typical team. It's 2nd and 7. You figure you have two downs to get 7. How would things change if you have 3 downs to get that? Multiply that by "X" down cycles over the course of a season compelling idea.

    I don't know if I'd have the guts to do it if I were a coach, but ...


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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    I didn't watch the video, but I've read a little about that coach's no-punt philosophy.

    From what I gather, the underlying idea is that he figured that the advantage of an offense using four plays instead of three to get first downs outweighs the field-position tactic of punting.

    From that standpoint it may make sense if a team's offense is based on shorter-yardage plays, even if you're in your own territory.

    Consider a typical team. It's 2nd and 7. You figure you have two downs to get 7. How would things change if you have 3 downs to get that? Multiply that by "X" down cycles over the course of a season compelling idea.

    I don't know if I'd have the guts to do it if I were a coach, but ...
    Again, it makes sense in high school where...let's face it... the quality of play isn't always the best. Like you said, if you're facing 2nd and 7, you could probably cut that down to 4th and 2 pretty easily, at which point you could go for it and most likely get it.

    However, on the college level, there are times where even 4th and 1 might as well be 4th and 10. Unless your team is THAT good and the opposing team is THAT bad, I'm not sure giving up field position is a good idea at the college level.



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    There has been a lot of work done on this topic, and nearly all of it points to going for it as being the best option over the majority of the field. The data was compiled from NFL games, not high school, so the "level of play" arguement doesn't stand. The NFL is a good proving ground for this type of thing because the talent is so much more even across all teams than it is in college or high school. But all of the coaches are too chicken to ever give it a try. I'm guessing that it will take a couple of generations for the XBox/PS3 crowd to actually make it into the high level coaching profession and try some of these things out. It wasn't that long ago that nobody passed the ball more than 25% of the time either.


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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    There has been a lot of work done on this topic, and nearly all of it points to going for it as being the best option over the majority of the field. The data was compiled from NFL games, not high school, so the "level of play" arguement doesn't stand. The NFL is a good proving ground for this type of thing because the talent is so much more even across all teams than it is in college or high school. But all of the coaches are too chicken to ever give it a try. I'm guessing that it will take a couple of generations for the XBox/PS3 crowd to actually make it into the high level coaching profession and try some of these things out. It wasn't that long ago that nobody passed the ball more than 25% of the time either.
    Haha, they already do it online...



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Let's onside every kickoff. We are going to hit them getting off the bus.


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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Here's a good explanation of the theory from the article I linked earlier:

    "Think about all those punts on fourth-and-1, fourth-and-2, fourth-and-3. The average NFL offensive play gains about five yards. Yet game in, game out, coaches boom the punt away on short yardage, handing the most precious article in football -- possession of the ball -- to the other side. Nearly three-quarters of fourth-and-1 attempts succeed, while around one-third of possessions result in scores. Think about those fractions. Go for it four times on fourth-and-1 -- odds are you will keep the ball three times, and three kept possessions each with a one-third chance of a score results in your team scoring once more than it otherwise would have. Punt the ball on all four fourth-and-1s, and you've given the opponents three additional possessions. (It would have gotten one possession anyway when you missed one of your fourth-and-1s.) Those three extra possessions, divided by the one-third chance to score, give the opponent an extra score."



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Another thing to consider is: Your play calling on 3rd and 10. If you call a play to gain 7 yards, such as a slant pass, you are much more likely to complete that and then have a much easier 4th and 3.

    Generally teams go for all 10 or 11 yards in one play = not usually very likely.

    For those of you who didn't watch the video, if you fail to get a first down when you are on your own 10 yard line, they have a 92% chance of scoring. If you punt it and they get the ball on the 50, they have a 75% chance of scoring. Are you really that much better off? .... But what if you get the first down?



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    Re: Don't Punt!

    Quote Originally Posted by edr247 View Post
    Again, it makes sense in high school where...let's face it... the quality of play isn't always the best. Like you said, if you're facing 2nd and 7, you could probably cut that down to 4th and 2 pretty easily, at which point you could go for it and most likely get it.

    However, on the college level, there are times where even 4th and 1 might as well be 4th and 10. Unless your team is THAT good and the opposing team is THAT bad, I'm not sure giving up field position is a good idea at the college level.
    Go forIt on 4th Down

    Here's the link to the author's blog: Advanced NFL Stats

    Here's another good link for some of this stuff: Smart Football

    More: Fourth Down Decisions: Never Punt With Tebow | mgoblog


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