Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again
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  1. #1
    Cyclone42
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    Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    This ISU climatologist predicted a drought for Iowa back in 2008:

    Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Right after he came out with these predictions, the sky opened up and it practically hasn't stopped raining since. I'm not the only one who has noticed, the Omaha World-Herald recently had an editorial cartoon comparing Omaha to Seattle.

    Well, I guess a broken clock has to be right eventually. He came out with this just recently:

    Signs of a drought in Iowa? - Omaha.com

    So, it appears we're in for one hell of a flood.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Well, I guess a broken clock has to be right eventually.

    Twice actually. Hopefully this is it.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    He can't be right all the time. EL Nino and La Ninacan turn a good cropup side down in a hurry. How bad can it get? In the summer of 1976 or 1977 bathrooms at ISU said If's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Elwynn is one of the most respected climatologists in the nation. It's not like the guy is just throwing darts with his predictions. He has been stating we are long due for our next drought based upon weather trends they have been able to put together from rings on 500 or so year old trees in Virginia. We are currently 5 years or so past the longest span of droughts in the last 500 years or so. I have had the opportunity to listen to him speak multiple times as well as eat lunch with him twice and he is as knowledgeable about world weather trends as anyone you will see and ISU is very lucky to have him. He is on such demand to speak at meetings etc. that it is crazy.

    It is only June and even though we are wet right now there is plenty of time for things to dry up and get hot through the rest of the summer. Not saying it will happen but to claim that "Elwynn is at it again" and making blind claims is just ridiculous. He will be the first to tell you that at any given times there are signs that point to drought or a wet year at the same time, their jobs is to look at past data and look at models and come up with a prediction. In all honesty we are more than due for a drought, not that I want to see on though.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Quote Originally Posted by FarminCy View Post
    Elwynn is one of the most respected climatologists in the nation. It's not like the guy is just throwing darts with his predictions. He has been stating we are long due for our next drought based upon weather trends they have been able to put together from rings on 500 or so year old trees in Virginia. We are currently 5 years or so past the longest span of droughts in the last 500 years or so. I have had the opportunity to listen to him speak multiple times as well as eat lunch with him twice and he is as knowledgeable about world weather trends as anyone you will see and ISU is very lucky to have him. He is on such demand to speak at meetings etc. that it is crazy.

    It is only June and even though we are wet right now there is plenty of time for things to dry up and get hot through the rest of the summer. Not saying it will happen but to claim that "Elwynn is at it again" and making blind claims is just ridiculous. He will be the first to tell you that at any given times there are signs that point to drought or a wet year at the same time, their jobs is to look at past data and look at models and come up with a prediction. In all honesty we are more than due for a drought, not that I want to see on though.
    I concur...

    Elwynn talks in term of probability. All he's saying is the chance of a drought has increased from say 25% to 45%. We can still have a good year, but we can also have a bad one.

    This year weather pattern is most similar to 1983 the way it's shaping up.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    I used to work in an office right beside Elwynn so I probably have a view of him that is different than most...

    But in 1993, he was still predicting a drought when the basketball hoops at Hilton went under water.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Quote Originally Posted by bugs4cy View Post
    I used to work in an office right beside Elwynn so I probably have a view of him that is different than most...

    But in 1993, he was still predicting a drought when the basketball hoops at Hilton went under water.
    True...And he's been saying drought for the last 15 years.

    Here's the thing. This year was the first one in the 17 years I've heard him talk where he didn't talk about drought and didn't pull out the tree ring slides. That's why I think it might actually happen.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    He predicts a drought every year.


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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Predicting weather patterns accurately requires much more long term, accurate information than we possess. I am sure he is doing his best with the information available to him, but this is about like predicting the outcome of a football game by studying two players.



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    Smile Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobber View Post
    True...And he's been saying drought for the last 15 years.

    Here's the thing. This year was the first one in the 17 years I've heard him talk where he didn't talk about drought and didn't pull out the tree ring slides. That's why I think it might actually happen.
    So he is the Giggles of drought predictions?



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    I bet he has some money hedged in bottled water or something..... :)



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Quote Originally Posted by krustysponge View Post
    So he is the Giggles of drought predictions?
    Yes.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    1983 was hot and dry so was 1988, in my part of the state. Elwin will tell you being off 1% in world wide weather is rain in Omaha and not the Quad CIties. Every 20-25 years? 1988+ 25 Hot and Dry will be here any time. Elwin is one of the best , and has been for a long time.



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    Re: Elwynn Taylor (ISU climatologist) is at it again

    Elwynn toes the line with percentages so he can always come back and have footing to say he was right and conveniently reference that ignoring the incorrect part. Used to drive me crazy when he was on WOI-AM. I've talked to the guy in person and seen him give public talks. Very egotistical. He'll be happy to tell you how great he his at predicting the climate, stock market, etc.



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