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  1. #1
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    The future of superconferences...

    I predict that these proposed super-conferences if they materialize will not survive for two key reasons.

    First, the model of pushing these niche conference sports channels onto basic cable will ultimately get pushed to expanded cable in the larger markets due to the need to control the cost of basic cable packages.

    The Big Ten got the jump on everyone with their conference channel, but the other conferences will start to catch up. This is going to create competition, and that will very likely decrease the fees that can be charged for carrying these channels.

    It is always good to be first in a competitive environment, but that lead should not be construed to be permanent. As more of these conference channels emerge cable companies will either decrease the payouts available and/or likely push them to expanded offerings in order to control costs.

    Consumer education will likely create some push back as well because it is a steep price for basic subscribers to be forced to pay for these targeted sports channels.

    The second point is that there is only so much advertising revenue available to be spread around to college football. The more teams a conference adds the more diluted the allocation of the revenue and diluted the product becomes.


    I predict that the smaller model of 12 teams max will ultimately win out. If these super-conferences emerge then I predict you will see another another realignment where the marquee programs try to break off again and form smaller conferences.


    Last edited by mt85; 06-14-2010 at 02:27 PM.

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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    What is the deal with this 'superconference' myth anyway? Did one guy just pull it out of a hat and every media outlet loved the idea so started proposing it?

    I think, and have always thought, it's just stupid.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    My sentiments exactly. I've always doubted the long-term viability of these 16 team super conferences. Bigger isn't always better.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Plus I think congress may start to question the tax exemption of such conferences and their schools if others are squeezed out just to add tv sets and footprint.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Quote Originally Posted by CloneState1028 View Post
    What is the deal with this 'superconference' myth anyway? Did one guy just pull it out of a hat and every media outlet loved the idea so started proposing it?

    I think, and have always thought, it's just stupid.
    It really is stupid because there aren't enough games in a football season to make a 16 team conference feasible.

    Assuming two 8 team division, you would likely only play an opponent from the other bracket once every 4 years. That would really create some great rivalries.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    I don't think it'll work. It'll work money-wise, but not athletic-wise: look what has happened in the ACC: They thought it will be a superconference: serious football being played ! And then what ? How many teams have been to the BCS Championship game since the new ACC began ?

    Same thing with let's say: if Texas and OU wants to go to Pac-10 (or Pac-16): they have to beat each other first, and the beat USC, Cal and UCLA before being eligible to be BCS-bound.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Certainly one side of the coin that I find valid.

    The other thing that I think could happen is superconferences end up becoming a smashing success, leading the larger schools to come to the conclusion that even more money can be gained by trimming the fat (i.e., Washington St, Iowa, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, etc). Cutting even more smaller schools out of the equation, to say, two 16-team uber-conferences in the model of pro leagues, could draw even significantly higher revenues.


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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclone13 View Post
    I don't think it'll work. It'll work money-wise, but not athletic-wise: look what has happened in the ACC: They thought it will be a superconference: serious football being played ! And then what ? How many teams have been to the BCS Championship game since the new ACC began ?

    Same thing with let's say: if Texas and OU wants to go to Pac-10 (or Pac-16): they have to beat each other first, and the beat USC, Cal and UCLA before being eligible to be BCS-bound.
    IIRC, in the "Grand Plan" if the Pac-10 would have expanded to 16, they would have petitioned very hard to get two automatic BCS bids (one for each division) plus another at-large, most-likely. So all Texas had to do was win their division (basically beat OU more often than not) to get a BCS bid.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Quote Originally Posted by jdoggivjc View Post
    Certainly one side of the coin that I find valid.

    The other thing that I think could happen is superconferences end up becoming a smashing success, leading the larger schools to come to the conclusion that even more money can be gained by trimming the fat (i.e., Washington St, Iowa, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, etc). Cutting even more smaller schools out of the equation, to say, two 16-team uber-conferences in the model of pro leagues, could draw even significantly higher revenues.

    I see your point and couldn't agree more with you. I even think this could be lead to similar model in the European soccer: you have divisions where you have promotion and relegation. Of course, the premier division (uber-conference) teams will get tons of money while the lower division teams will get much, much less money.



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Quote Originally Posted by MoreCowbell View Post
    IIRC, in the "Grand Plan" if the Pac-10 would have expanded to 16, they would have petitioned very hard to get two automatic BCS bids (one for each division) plus another at-large, most-likely. So all Texas had to do was win their division (basically beat OU more often than not) to get a BCS bid.
    I see. Probably they also will make sure that Texas-USC and OU-USC don't happen every season ? So at least every "big dog" will get its day (season) ?



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    Re: The future of superconferences...

    Nothing has changed in that the most powerful man in college athletics right now is Jim Delany, Big 10 Commissioner. It is scary how much power this one man has. If he chooses to add 4 more teams to the Big Ten it will happen and other conferences will follow.



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