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  1. #1
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    Overlooked consequences

    An interesting ramification of expansion and realignment that I think is being considerably overlooked is that of competitive balance and scheduling. There is a reason that the BCS did not work as originally designed. There is a reason that schools like Boise State, Utah, and TCU (with substantially less resources, tradition, etc.) have been able to crash the BCS (and potentially the national championship) party.

    As conferences have evolved and merged, more of the elite programs are playing each other in conference and they are sustaining more losses than they traditionally did. Whereas, the BCS-busters arenít facing that same gauntlet of games each season.

    Think of this in the simplest terms possible. When two teams play, someone must win and someone must lose. Thirty years ago: Penn State and Ohio State were in different conferences, Texas and Oklahoma were in different conferences, Florida State and Miami were in different conferences, Arkansas and Alabama were in different conferences, etc.

    I think the biggest factor that fans of traditional football power schools are overlooking in the competition that they will be facing if the superconferences do come to fruition. These schools, their fans, boosters, and alumni have grown accustomed to winning 10 games per year for decades. Someone has to lose! How are they going to handle this situation?

    Without a playoff system, where perhaps you could qualify with a 9-3 or 8-4 record, I donít see a lot of happy people looking down from their luxury suites. Your thoughts?



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    I think you have to look at the opposite of that too though. Maybe those Texas and Oklahoma teams weern't that good and maybe didn't deserve the attention they got.


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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    I think UT realizes this. That's why they want the Big XII to stay.


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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by yaman3 View Post
    I think you have to look at the opposite of that too though. Maybe those Texas and Oklahoma teams weern't that good and maybe didn't deserve the attention they got.
    Maybe they weren't but they have set a standard. Going 9-3 or 8-4 is not acceptable at those schools given their current football culture. I'm saying MANY of those schools will be facing that very soon. They can't all go 12-0 or 11-1



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by MookInLincoln View Post
    Without a playoff system, where perhaps you could qualify with a 9-3 or 8-4 record, I don’t see a lot of happy people looking down from their luxury suites. Your thoughts?
    This is the main reason I don't think Texas will leave the Big 12. The trade off is this, if Nebraska goes to the Big 10, they will lose more games on average. I don't think anyone disagrees with that, but they will do it because of tv coverage. Stadium sales, (I assume) are way less than tv coverage sales. The other reason is for recruiting opportunities.



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by MookInLincoln View Post
    An interesting ramification of expansion and realignment that I think is being considerably overlooked is that of competitive balance and scheduling. There is a reason that the BCS did not work as originally designed. There is a reason that schools like Boise State, Utah, and TCU (with substantially less resources, tradition, etc.) have been able to crash the BCS (and potentially the national championship) party.

    As conferences have evolved and merged, more of the elite programs are playing each other in conference and they are sustaining more losses than they traditionally did. Whereas, the BCS-busters aren’t facing that same gauntlet of games each season.

    Think of this in the simplest terms possible. When two teams play, someone must win and someone must lose. Thirty years ago: Penn State and Ohio State were in different conferences, Texas and Oklahoma were in different conferences, Florida State and Miami were in different conferences, Arkansas and Alabama were in different conferences, etc.

    I think the biggest factor that fans of traditional football power schools are overlooking in the competition that they will be facing if the superconferences do come to fruition. These schools, their fans, boosters, and alumni have grown accustomed to winning 10 games per year for decades. Someone has to lose! How are they going to handle this situation?

    Without a playoff system, where perhaps you could qualify with a 9-3 or 8-4 record, I don’t see a lot of happy people looking down from their luxury suites. Your thoughts?
    The ones with the most power and TV sets will make another cull to get more money in attempt to outbid their way to championships. If they can it get down to 16 teams...
    While everyone is bumping up their cash flow, there will always be have &
    have-nots, and "Johnny" will always want to play close to home in the sunshine.

    But yes, it seems like it would be more cost effective to essentially buy yourself some wins by subsidizing some programs just enough that they are allowed to play....kind of what UT would like to do in the Big 12.



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by MookInLincoln View Post
    When two teams play, someone must win and someone must lose. Thirty years ago: Penn State and Ohio State were in different conferences, Texas and Oklahoma were in different conferences, Florida State and Miami were in different conferences, Arkansas and Alabama were in different conferences, etc.
    Just to clarify --- Penn State, FSU and Miami were still independent at the time.

    Doesn't affect your overall point, which is an interesting question.


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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    I think its a very valid point to consider. The giant conferences could very well eat their young. $$$ in the university's pockets won't make your fans happy if they are accustomed to a certain level of winning and that level goes south quickly with the big dogs living on your block.


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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Mr Mook you raise some good points and while it has been discussed somewhat I think you bringing it up again has value. The biggest reason for the conf realignment and the move to Super Conferences is for one reason: money. And the best way to raise money where it didn't exist before is to add games and the associated TV coverage. So as soon as the 4 super conferences come into being, the BCS will be disbanded and a playoff system to determine a National Champion in football would be created. The teams getting invited to the tourney come from the Super Conferences of course; that way they get to keep the money.

    I threw out some scenarios is another thread but what it comes down to is this: post season you could play in 1 bowl game or you could play in 2, 3 or even 4 post season games as part of the tourney. More games mean more money. The tourney could be 8 teams (2 from each super conference ... e.g. instead of north/south winners meeting for conf championship like current b12 they get an invite to national tourney) or even a 16 team tourney. 16 is interesting because they could allow for 4 non Super teams (like TCU, BSU, etc) to keep out the anti trust people. The other 12 would be 3 from each Super; divisional winners plus next best team as conference representative. That way say if UT and OU were in the same division they would play each other and someone would have to lose right? So lets say in a Pac16 scenario USC won the "Pacific" and UT won the "Great Plains" then OU could still get an at large bid and get into the 16 team tourney. Anyway, I'm getting way out ahead of where we are at today but kinda interesting to think about. This also assumes 4 Super Conferences: Pac16, Big16, SEC16, and ACC16. And while this is extremely hypothetical, in this sort of scenario - national playoff in football with a majority or even all entrants members of the super conferences ... ISU gets screwed.



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by Rickybaby View Post
    ISU gets screwed.
    College football fan gets screwed. The highest level of college football suddenly looks just like the NFL. Why do I want Saturdays to be just like Sundays? They are both great but different. Sad day



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    I think the formula will be simple.

    Four super-conference champions will have a four team playoff. The winners will then play in a "National Championship" game. All other bowls will go on as usual with their invites.



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s View Post
    I think the formula will be simple.

    Four super-conference champions will have a four team playoff. The winners will then play in a "National Championship" game. All other bowls will go on as usual with their invites.
    Antitrust issues would kill this.



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by mred View Post
    Antitrust issues would kill this.
    I hope so. I now find myself on a different side of the issue



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    this point has been brought up many of times. And the same answer applies to this as to every other logical reason, TV SETS!



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    Re: Overlooked consequences

    Quote Originally Posted by c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s View Post
    I think the formula will be simple.

    Four super-conference champions will have a four team playoff. The winners will then play in a "National Championship" game. All other bowls will go on as usual with their invites.

    Seems like everyone is calling for a 4 team playoff of the "Supers".

    I just don't see that happening without a huge backlash.

    I could however see a 5 Super Conferences (which then covers every major university that would have a shot at winning a title)
    take their 5 conference champs and then 3 at large teams for an 8 team playoff. Not sure of the logistics of this though.

    There will still be drama though. Especially in huge conferences where teams won't play half of the conference they are in.



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