ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs
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    ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    I thought I'd take a quick look at each weight class's opening round from ISU and Iowa's perspective.

    125

    ISU - #5 - Andrew Long really has to win against Stanford's Ryan Mango (unseeded)

    so that we aren't chasing points for the rest of the tourney. Trouble is that Mango is good: aggressive, former Missouri H.S. state champion. I've seen Mango in a few matches - he can make you look stupid and tries to put you on your heels early. That's also his downfall. Long could take advantage of his recklessness, as long as he himself is neither too reckless himself nor too tentative. A major decision is not out of the question - Mango's willingness to fight when he gets behind generally means that his losses aren't close - he goes hard for the fall when he starts to trail.

    Iowa - #3 - Matt McDonough has, in my opinion, an easier opener:

    he wrestles the winner of Eric Morrill (Edinboro) and Jason Lara (Oregon State) in a wrestle-in match. I'm going to guess that Morrill wins the opportunity - based mostly on the fact that he's a Pennsylvania-style staller, and Lara is an aggressive guy who takes chances for the pin, but it doesn't really matter. McDonough has the skill set to beat them both.

    Best case scenario: Long wins a maj. dec. to keep pace w/ McDonough.

    Worst case scenario: Long gets caught early by Mango w/ a near-fall, loses a close one, putting the team in an early hole.

    You Are Dreaming Scenario: Jim Zalesky gets the coaching win of his career as he watches Oregon State's Lara steal the show from McDonough, and Long pins Mango.


    133

    ISU - #10 Nick Fanthorpe against Cortland Choate of Brown. I had the wrong info here previously, and don't know very much about Choate at all.

    That said, Fanthorpe should beat Choate, but isn't the scariest draw a #10 seed can get.

    Iowa - #2 Dan Dennis against Kevin Smith of Buffalo.

    No, not that Kevin Smith, but it might as well be. Smith does well against elite wrestlers, in that he wrestles them close to try to keep within striking distance. He's conservative and smart, but isn't good enough to scare someone like Dennis, who is probably the best wrestler Smith has faced this season.

    Best case scenario: Fanthorpe wins a pin to get an early edge over Dennis, who settles for the decision against the outmatched Smith.

    Worst case scenario: Fanthorpe struggles to a decision, and Dennis blows Smith out.

    You Are Dreaming Scenario: Dennis loses (I should call this the "really dreaming" scenario) and Fanthorpe gets the maj. dec. or pin.


    141 - This one has a lot of downside, which I guess is its upside. If a miracle occurs at this weight class, ISU can steal points in a class that, on paper, stacks up very, very badly for the Cyclones.

    ISU's unseeded Dalton Jensen wrestles #4 seeded Reece Humphrey of Ohio State, who just happens to be great. This match could get ugly quickly. Jensen has lost often to elites, and Humphrey might be the best he's wrestled this year. He'll have to wrestle out of his mind to take this match.

    Iowa - In the "awesome name match of the day" #6 seeded Montel Marion squares off against the unseed Cole VonOhlen of Air Force. I don't know much about VonOhlen, but I think it is safe to say that Marion is an unmitigated favorite.

    Best case scenario: Jensen loses a decision and Marion doesn't dominate in his win.

    Worst case scenario: Jensen loses by maj dec. or pin, and Marion wins by pin fall.

    You Are Dreaming Scenario: Jensen wins and Marion is overaggressive and makes mental errors (its happened before) leading to a miracle pin by the more disciplined but less talented VonOhlen.

    149

    ISU - #7 Seeded Mitch Mueller wrestles Senior Frank Gayeski of Liberty. This is an opportunity for Mueller to get a fall, as Gayeski wrestles aggressively, and when he loses against elites, it is often by pin - the guy takes risks to win or die trying.

    Iowa - #2 Brent Metcalf takes on UNI's talented but vulnerable Trenton Washington.

    Best case scenario: Mueller pins Gayeski in about 4 minutes. Metcalf settles for a hard-fought major decision over Washington.

    Worst case scenario: Mueller settles for a decision, and Metcalf pins Washington.

    You Are Dreaming Scenario: Mueller pins Gayeski. An inspired Washington wrestles out of his mind, nearly surpassing his greatest upset so far (over Michael Thorn of Minnesota), and loses a decision to Metcalf.

    157 -

    ISU's unseeded Andrew Sorenson is in a must-win match versus Michigan State's upset-minded and unseeded Anthony Jones. In a class that features the undefeated J.P. O'Connor of Harvard as well as ISU turncoat Cy-ler Sanderson, it is important that the Cyclone's underdog outlast's Iowa's underdog...Jake Kerr.

    Iowa's unseeded Jake Kerr will likely wrestle #1 seed O'Connor in his second match, so pressure will be on in his opening match against his relative equal: the unseeded Tejovan Edwards of Arizona State.

    Best case scenario: Sorenson pins a sloppy Jones. Kerr loses to Edwards.

    Worst case scenario: Jones wrestles above his discipline, as he occassionally has, and Sorenson loses the decision. Kerr wins.

    You Are Dreaming Scenario: Sorenson pins, and finds wins in the later rounds to make it to the quarterfinals before losing his first match. Kerr is two and out.

    More than likely, both guys will be wrestling in consolations/wrestlebacks, where hopefully ISU can still pick up a few-points in edge.

    ***

    At this point in the tournament, Iowa has a decided edge, but if ISU catches a few breaks, the Cyclones can try to position their heavier guys to stay in the standings. Of course, it is never a two-team race, and any of the other qualifying full or near-full teams can screw all of this up.

    Thinking of it in these terms, though, helps me put some artificial "head-to-head" benchmarks in my mind as I try to follow all the action starting on Thursday.


    Last edited by IowaSTATCyclone; 03-15-2010 at 11:27 PM. Reason: Corrected opponent

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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    Jensen wrestled Humphrey earlier this year and lost 6-5, so while Jensen probably will lose, a win isn't out of the realm of possibility.


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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    interesting read, thanks.



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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    It would be good if you had the correct wrestlers for the matches. Fanthorpe does not wrestle Kubec. He wrestlers Choates (Brown). Best case he gets a pin. The worst a major.

    Anyone can lose but the chance of Long losing to Mango is about 2%.



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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    Thanks for the insight. Hopefully our guys come to wrestle. We need some good matches in the early rounds from our guys and not so good matches from Iowa to stay in this. Keep the posts coming Iow...Cyclone.


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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    Quote Originally Posted by cywr89 View Post
    It would be good if you had the correct wrestlers for the matches. Fanthorpe does not wrestle Kubec. He wrestlers Choates (Brown). Best case he gets a pin. The worst a major.

    Anyone can lose but the chance of Long losing to Mango is about 2%.
    I corrected that - I was looking at the wrong listing and should have caught that. I don't know anything about Choates, so I'll trust your assessment.

    Also, I'd normally agree with you but those 1st round matches with aggressive risk takers can break badly. I really think your 2% is closer to 10% when you are dealing with an early pressuring guy who won't have stars in his eyes, and haven't settled in to the surreal pressure of nationals.

    In other words - under any other circumstances, I wouldn't give Mango a shot. In the opening session? Bad things can happen - ergo "worse case" scenario. Having said that, Long "should" pin the guy - he's got crazy legs begging for a double. If I had to bet, I'd actually put money on an early pin in Long's favor. But if Long does lose, it will be because he gets caught cold in the first period and can't catch up.



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    Re: ISU and Iowa 1st Round previews - 125 through 157lbs

    We have a recruit that beat Long's first opponent. I hope he can survive, considering. Long's potential doesn't have a ceiling.



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