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Thread: MBB Schedule

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    MBB Schedule

    I think we're almost all at least a tad disappointed with how the MBB season is currently unfolding. I'm not really in a distinct group with my views of GMac, but I'm waiting for the rest (or at least most of the rest) of the season to play out because of how our schedule is setup in the B12.

    I'll draw this comparison to Mizzou (15) (using kenpom.com). They were 12-3 in non-conference play with their best wins being over Old Dominion (29) and Illinois (54) on neutral courts (both better wins than any we currently have) and their worst loss being at Oral Roberts (130).

    ISU (89) was 11-4 in non-conference play with the best win being Houston (88) at home and worst losses being Northwestern (68) in Chicago and UNI (44) at home. In comparison ISU has "better" losses and far lower "quality" wins. We knew that already.

    Now, for the conference schedule so far. MU is currently 4-3 in conference, here is what they have done:

    (9) Kansas St. W, 74-68 73 Home
    (84) Texas Tech W, 94-89 90 OT Away
    (97) Oklahoma L, 66-61 70 Away
    (92) Nebraska W, 70-53 59 Home
    (1) Kansas L, 84-65 73 Away
    (55) Oklahoma St. W, 95-80 79 Home
    (41) Texas A&M L, 77-74 72 Home

    ...and ISU:

    (7) Texas L, 90-83 78 Home
    (92) Nebraska W, 56-53 66 Away
    (84) Texas Tech L, 78-71 68 Away
    (1) Kansas L, 84-61 74 Home
    (97) Oklahoma L, 89-84 71 Away
    (85) Colorado W, 64-63 69 Home
    (14) Baylor L, 84-63 64 Away


    Both teams have road losses to OU, a win over Nebby (ISU away, MU home), MU snuck out the win at Tech while ISU lost there.

    The point I'm trying to make (probably not very effectively) is that both teams have won a road game against a poor team and that's it for conference road wins. The difference being our home schedule has been BRUTAL so far for ISU. The home win over KSU for MU being the only real difference to set the two teams apart. A win on Saturday over KSU could be a season "saver" to a small extent.

    I just don't think things are quite as bad as they appear in the W-L column right now.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Again, its the way we are losing, not the fact that we are losing.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    We just need to start winning some games, and get some confidence back. WE CAN DO IT!



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckd4735 View Post
    Again, its the way we are losing, not the fact that we are losing.
    Road games (remember that pre-conference season stat about how difficult it is to win road games) and home games games against top 5 teams?

    We're all frustrated but let's see how it plays out. The team could prove to be quite a bit better than the current record.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    How many more wins do you see? Three? I think that puts us at 16-15, pretty similar to the past three years.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by MrGreg View Post
    How many more wins do you see? Three? I think that puts us at 16-15, pretty similar to the past three years.
    I said after the loss to KU that they would have to win out at home to make anything/much of this season. I don't know how they'll perform agaisnt KSU on Saturday, it's certainly not a great match-up for ISU but a win there would appease some of the hate at least momentarily. I'd say all the remaining home games are winnable, though that will be difficult to accomplish and any road win from here would be a bonus.

    I'm not speaking from the perspective of whether or not GMac will ever get it done (assuming that's where you were headed with the question). Moreso from the stance that the guys haven't caught much of a break with the conference schedule and the other bottom teams in the North (MU, NU, CU) would likely have performed roughly the same. I do know that getting rid of McDermott isn't necessarily a "fix", that is just as likely to make things worse as it is better. Not that you never come to a time when making a change is necessary, but IMO, we're not there yet.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    I just don't think things are quite as bad as they appear in the W-L column right now.
    Unfortunately its going to get worse before it gets better. Very likely we will be 2-8 after playing KSU at home and @ KU and MU.

    The last 6 games are much more manageable. 2 road games (at CU and @ KSU. 4 home games that are at least winnable (OkSt, TAM, NU, MU).

    I see 4 to 5 wins this season. I am assuming we will win 2 or 3 out of the final 4 home games and drop both roadies. But even that won't be easy as OSU, TAM, and MU will all be battiling for the NCAA and seeding and will come focused hoping to pick up a road win in Ames.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    I think we're almost all at least a tad disappointed with how the MBB season is currently unfolding. I'm not really in a distinct group with my views of GMac, but I'm waiting for the rest (or at least most of the rest) of the season to play out because of how our schedule is setup in the B12.

    I'll draw this comparison to Mizzou (15) (using kenpom.com). They were 12-3 in non-conference play with their best wins being over Old Dominion (29) and Illinois (54) on neutral courts (both better wins than any we currently have) and their worst loss being at Oral Roberts (130).

    ISU (89) was 11-4 in non-conference play with the best win being Houston (88) at home and worst losses being Northwestern (68) in Chicago and UNI (44) at home. In comparison ISU has "better" losses and far lower "quality" wins. We knew that already.

    Now, for the conference schedule so far. MU is currently 4-3 in conference, here is what they have done:

    (9) Kansas St. W, 74-68 73 Home
    (84) Texas Tech W, 94-89 90 OT Away
    (97) Oklahoma L, 66-61 70 Away
    (92) Nebraska W, 70-53 59 Home
    (1) Kansas L, 84-65 73 Away
    (55) Oklahoma St. W, 95-80 79 Home
    (41) Texas A&M L, 77-74 72 Home

    ...and ISU:

    (7) Texas L, 90-83 78 Home
    (92) Nebraska W, 56-53 66 Away
    (84) Texas Tech L, 78-71 68 Away
    (1) Kansas L, 84-61 74 Home
    (97) Oklahoma L, 89-84 71 Away
    (85) Colorado W, 64-63 69 Home
    (14) Baylor L, 84-63 64 Away


    Both teams have road losses to OU, a win over Nebby (ISU away, MU home), MU snuck out the win at Tech while ISU lost there.

    The point I'm trying to make (probably not very effectively) is that both teams have won a road game against a poor team and that's it for conference road wins. The difference being our home schedule has been BRUTAL so far for ISU. The home win over KSU for MU being the only real difference to set the two teams apart. A win on Saturday over KSU could be a season "saver" to a small extent.

    I just don't think things are quite as bad as they appear in the W-L column right now.
    Except thats a big difference. KSU is a top 10 team. A win over a top 10 team would do wonders for Gmac's "Like-O-meter".


    "Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion man"

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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Conveniently enough we'll find out on Saturday when KSU comes to Ames.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckd4735 View Post
    Again, its the way we are losing, not the fact that we are losing.
    Quoted for truth.

    We shouldn't be being blown out by 21 @ Baylor or getting run by Kansas at Hilton, especially when we played Texas to the wire (and without letting them go 10-0 out of the half, who knows how it would have finished).

    However, all said and done, a win Saturday would be huge... although I see NIT at best right now. Mizzou is going to rollllll us if we keep up this turnover stuff. If Colorado forces 21 TURNOVERS here in Ames, I hate to imagine what the Controlled Chaos does to us in Columbia... *shudder*


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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    I said after the loss to KU that they would have to win out at home to make anything/much of this season. I don't know how they'll perform agaisnt KSU on Saturday, it's certainly not a great match-up for ISU but a win there would appease some of the hate at least momentarily. I'd say all the remaining home games are winnable, though that will be difficult to accomplish and any road win from here would be a bonus.

    I'm not speaking from the perspective of whether or not GMac will ever get it done (assuming that's where you were headed with the question). Moreso from the stance that the guys haven't caught much of a break with the conference schedule and the other bottom teams in the North (MU, NU, CU) would likely have performed roughly the same. I do know that getting rid of McDermott isn't necessarily a "fix", that is just as likely to make things worse as it is better. Not that you never come to a time when making a change is necessary, but IMO, we're not there yet.
    Agreed. I'm disappointed in the loss, especially the second half. But I'm not giving up on the team.


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    Re: MBB Schedule

    khaal53 I like your analysis, using the numbers to provide perspective about results vs. possibilities. Because sometimes W-L can be misleading (I'm sure plenty of people will reiterate how it's not the losing, it's "how" the team is losing ... but that's another thread, covered elsewhere).
    The downside to your projection is that, although it makes sense, GMac's pattern at ISU has never risen above expected results, and optimistic expectations seem to become more futile as the season wears on (to be fair, Morgan's last season had a similar feel to it).
    So, although you're right to compare Mizzou & ISU at this juncture and say that, even though the Tigers are doing better in-conference, the game-by-game results and SOS show that the stretch run could work to ISU's advantage I don't have the same hope, because I've seen this for 4 years.
    Blame it on anything you want I just have no confidence that we can turn "maybe" into "yes!" at this point.
    An example that's repeated itself over the last few years: On paper, having a near-miss at home vs. Texas wasn't a big deal, because they were No. 1 at the time and projected as a Final Four prospect. Bummer to miss the chance to knock off the top-ranked team and turn some heads (and get a "big win"), but hardly a bad loss. If nothing else, playing close against a top-5'er would probably mean the team was capable of knocking off a few other worthy opponents in Ames, such as KSU, OSU and Mizzou.
    But in GMac's era, it hasn't worked that way. Those teams will be "just a little better right now," so a home loss is understandable. And maybe we won't win all of those games, and that'd still be fine, but we'll probably lose all 3.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    I hear ya cyclones500. If someone held a gun to my head to guess whehter or not ISU would win out at home I would definitely say no. I'm hopeful they will, but I don't consider it likely.

    I'm really not trying to defend McDermott with a post like this. I am trying to post facts about the situation and usually facts that are a new angle to the discussion. I really, really want Mac to work out at ISU but I have little evidence to support why he would work out.



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    Re: MBB Schedule

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    khaal53 I like your analysis, using the numbers to provide perspective about results vs. possibilities. Because sometimes W-L can be misleading (I'm sure plenty of people will reiterate how it's not the losing, it's "how" the team is losing ... but that's another thread, covered elsewhere).
    The W/L record is not misleading. Its not how we are losing, it is who we are losing too. Thus far we have lost against every single NCAA Tourney/Bubble level team we have faced. 0-9 against them. We have beaten every bad team we have faced. At least we are consistent I guess (year after year without any upsets, but at least this year we aren't losing to South Dakota State).

    To make it to the NCAA (and even the NIT tourney) you have to beat good teams. That is one of, if not the most, important thing in the eyes of the selection committee. You cannot have a successful season in basketball losing to every good team you face and beating all of the poor teams. Considering that we are 0-9 against good teams, we are clearly a significant step below the level of the good teams we have faced.

    KSU would be a huge pick me up win... but I've watched several of their games and about all of our games... and i have not seen anything in those games to indicate that we will beat them, even at home. Is a mid-season turn-around possible? Yes, but at this point all available evidence says it won't happen.



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