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  1. #1
    Cyclone42
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    Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Metro/Region - No good news in weather forecast

    Al Dutcher, Nebraska state climatologist, said another potentially severe winter storm could hit around Jan. 20.
    “Lots of snow, lots of wind. It's coming in on the same track as the last two major storms,” Dutcher said Tuesday.
    Any meteorology people here know anything more about this? I don't think I've put in a full 40-hour work week since Thanksgiving, what with all the repeated snow storms.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Awesome! Maybe ISU will get another snow day.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Waaaay too far out to say anything. General rule: 4 days and in= pretty good accuracy. 7 days and in=mediocre. 7-14= lets just say storms vary by a thousand miles at times in this time frame.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Quote Originally Posted by Iastfan112 View Post
    Waaaay too far out to say anything. General rule: 4 days and in= pretty good accuracy. 7 days and in=mediocre. 7-14= lets just say storms vary by a thousand miles at times in this time frame.
    Exactly. It's way too far away.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    I am not "meteorology people", but when they can tell me what's happening four days from now, I will start worrying about two weeks from now. With all due respect to the resident meteorology people.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    no way to tell, anyone that predicts that far out is trying to make a name for themselves by getting it right a couple times in their career.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    I don't remember who i heard this from, but they said the almanac said that we could see 8 total snow storms this year.


    "Its time to roll up our sleeves, put on our hard hats and go to work together"


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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Meteorologist usually can give a 10 day forecast but from 7-10 days is still sketchy but they have a good idea about it. I would say wait for the 7 day or 5 day and that should be more accurate. It is still far off to predict it. It may be a blizzard or just a couple snow showers we will find out!



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    i still dont like even the thought of it. the fact that they ARE predicting something 14 days out is worse than if they were not predicting anything. I am supposed to fly into Omaha the 22nd. I know its the chance i took when i booked the tickets in august....but there is 1 fanatic that does not want this storm.


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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Quote Originally Posted by dinger View Post
    i still dont like even the thought of it. the fact that they ARE predicting something 14 days out is worse than if they were not predicting anything. I am supposed to fly into Omaha the 22nd. I know its the chance i took when i booked the tickets in august....but there is 1 fanatic that does not want this storm.
    Be prepared to see piles of snow everywhere. It's not going to melt any time soon



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    hard to say, but the weather message boards at www.accuweather.com was talking about the Christmas blizzard a good two weeks before it hit.



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclones_R_GR8 View Post
    Be prepared to see piles of snow everywhere. It's not going to melt any time soon
    oh i know i was there when the last one came through


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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    While a 10-14 day out forecast is usually a fantasy, you can still gleam usefull large scale weather patterns.

    Starting Sunday (or Monday), we will switch out of the Siberian Express weather pattern we have been in since xmas.

    Accuweather's 15 day forecast is pretty much the GFS computer model. I prefer the 'Euro' but the GFS has been slightly better the past month or so.

    1) if the computer models are struggling with a pattern change, the forecast will wildly swing (say 20 or 30 degrees between runs if looking at the 15 day accuweather forecast). They are often a day or 2 early as well when they first 'sniff out' this pattern change.

    2) IF you look at the 0Z runs of the 1/7 GFS and the EURO. THey are pretty much in agreement that we are going to flip to a more 'zonal' West to East pattern with occassional moisture starved disturbances embedded in it. This is a good pattern for 3 to 5 inch snowstorms (like Wednesday Night), but they are not conducive to Foot + snow stormstorms. Those require Storms to develop over the Texas Panhandle (or somewhere near it) and hook Northeast. This allows them to strengthen and pick up moisture after clearing the Rockies.

    3) There is a well debated topic amongst long range forecasters about when (if) the pattern flips back to the Siberan express pattern we have been in since the Xmas blizzard. These pattern changes provide great opportunities for big storms. This may be what some have picked up on because some forecasters think the pattern flips back around that date.

    For you weather junkies the current pattern features an almost all time record AO-, NAO-, PVA+ pattern with Davis Strait blocking. This is why the Siberian Express has been dumping into the Eastern half of the country. ENSO (el nino) got TKO'd by all these other Oscillations.

    If this were a Cybookie event, I would bet on an EAST COAST storm within a Day or 2 of 1/20 but not a Midwestern Storm. A zonal flow over the upper midwest isn't like to produce a 'storm'.

    For the record, the first blizzard was picked up about 7 days out by the GFS and the EURO. This was an unprecedented model agreement and lead time. The Xmas storm was handled much poorer by the models (even 12 hours out).



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    so, do you just google "accuweather" for this 15 day info?



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    Re: Major snow storm around Jan. 20?

    Quote Originally Posted by swiacy View Post
    so, do you just google "accuweather" for this 15 day info?
    First you need to google "How to understand Greek"


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