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  1. #1
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    Another snow storm?

    Dont know if there is anybody has been paying attention but looks like there is at least a better than normal chance (id say 55-60%) of another substantial snowstorm, pretty much like the last one, happening midweek. Here is the details from a weather website I frequent- the guy was 100% correct with the last one so I trust him quite a bit--

    The upper air low gradually lift out as we head through Tuesday and things look fairly quiet for Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Then as mentioned, there are still indications from the models that a fairly powerful winter storm will develop in the central Plains and move into the NW and northern Midwest by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. All of the models are now onto this idea, which certainly increases the confidence that it will occur, but we are still not yet to the point where I feel highly confident the storm will occur. Confidence has gone from around 50% yesterday to around 65% today.
    If things were to develop as most of the models indicate, a band of 8-12"+ snows would fall from eastern NE into much of IA, the southeast of MN, the northwest 2/3rds of WI and most of the UP. Lake Enhancement of the snows could lead to some heavier totals in the UP. Rains would change to snow in SE WI as well as northern IL and most of lower MI and the change over could occur fast enough Christmas Eve that 2-5" of snow could fall by Christmas Day in those areas.


    Last edited by cyinne; 12-18-2009 at 07:27 PM.

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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Sweet.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Perfect.... I hope when I drive back home on Christmas Eve, I don't run into this thing.


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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Charlie Freese with Freese-Notis said today the way the models are tracking that the corn belt especially west of the Mississippi river is going to be getting up to a foot or more of snow from a slow moving storm that is to begin late Tuesday and last till late Christmas day. It could track a little differently then it's showing now but said he could give a much more confident storm forecast on Monday. It's going to be an interesting week it sounds like.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Ya around 6-8 inches next wendsday thru thursday. Good thing Im going to San Diego on thursday


    Last edited by CyCrazy; 12-18-2009 at 07:15 PM.

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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by CYCRAZY View Post
    Ya around 6-8 inches next wendsday thru thursday. God thing Im going to San Diego on thursday
    We took our kids to Disneyworld during the week of the last storm but don't have an escape plan for this storm.....which is OK. I love these storms.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Hell yeah, it'll make the Tempe trip even more enjoyable.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Maybe, the models have been inconsistent and show a large spread on the position of the storm. For instance, the 12 UTC GFS had us getting hammered, the 18 UTC GFS has it miss all but the SE corner of Iowa entirely, this is the same model run 6 hours apart coming up with hugely varied solutions. Certainly bears watching but its too early to say warrant getting excited over it.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by Iastfan112 View Post
    Maybe, the models have been inconsistent and show a large spread on the position of the storm. For instance, the 12 UTC GFS had us getting hammered, the 18 UTC GFS has it miss all but the SE corner of Iowa entirely, this is the same model run 6 hours apart coming up with hugely varied solutions. Certainly bears watching but its too early to say warrant getting excited over it.
    True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

    For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclonesrule91 View Post
    Charlie Freese with Freese-Notis said today the way the models are tracking that the corn belt especially west of the Mississippi river is going to be getting up to a foot or more of snow from a slow moving storm that is to begin late Tuesday and last till late Christmas day. It could track a little differently then it's showing now but said he could give a much more confident storm forecast on Monday. It's going to be an interesting week it sounds like.
    Very true. Parent system is still way out over the Pacific Ocean and really won't be into the atmospheric sampling network over the US/Canada until late Sunday/Monday.

    Once it gets into the area where we have weather balloon launches and can have a much more detailed idea of what's going on will the forecast start to be more concrete...if only we could steal a few Hurricane Hunters to become Blizzard Hunters .



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by FDWxMan View Post
    True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

    For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.
    huh?



  12. #12
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    Re: Another snow storm?

    I know here in operations at the airport...we are gearing up...


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  13. #13
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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclone1975 View Post
    huh?
    Haha, sorry. (English version now)

    The GFS and ECMWF are two medium range forecasting models. The runs of these models at 0Z and 12Z time (6AM and PM for us) are the most credible as they include the new data from the most recent weather balloon launches.

    Lately they have been hinting at similar forecasts with Iowa being the target for this storm, but are still fairly inconsistent.

    And, since no one is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean launching weather balloons, these models will still likely swing around a bit until the parent system moves over the West Coast (late Sun/Mon)



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    Re: Another snow storm?

    A storm about that time would probably do wonderful things for those trying to get packages in time for christmas...



  15. #15
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    Re: Another snow storm?

    Quote Originally Posted by alarson View Post
    A storm about that time would probably do wonderful things for those trying to get packages in time for christmas...
    Not to mention the thousands of people stuck at airports practically ruining their Christmas.



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