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  1. #1
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    Chances of winning the North

    Gents,

    I was here a lot last year. I'm sure I'll drop in plenty the week of the ISU/Mizzou game, but for now wanted to share the new gadget we've developed for guaging the odds of winning the North.

    Barking Carnival — Blog — Predict-a-North - 4 Games to Go

    It's Predict-a-North. As you know, chances are long for your Cyclones, but they exist. So close.... the KSU and KU games were killers. You've got to be happy about your team, though. The video of Rhoads after the NU game gave me chills....

    Good luck this weekend.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    At this point, I just want the team to play their guts out and win as many of their remaining games as possible and get into a bowl game. We have an opportunity to knock off a Top 25 team, grab a solid win over a conference opponent that should be firmly below us, and compete for another win on the road. When our games are complete and if we are standing in first place in the North, that would be amazing. But our goal right now should be to get a bowl game, and the let the other chips fall where they may.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    IMO, the only way ISU wins the north is if they win out.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    ISU won't win the north, and that's ok. I'd like to beat CO and MO, then we go bowling and have the best record in at least 5 years.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckd4735 View Post
    IMO, the only way ISU wins the north is if they win out.
    Hell, knowing our history, we will beat OSU and CU, only to blow a late FG against MU that costs us the title -- again.

    I would be perfectly excited with 6-6. Winning the North is a great goal for the team, but I am not going to sweat it for a minute.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    1. Why is KSU not the favorite to win the north according to your projections? I understand the road game at NU is pretty pivotal, but they control their own destiny and have 2 home games to work with.

    2. Why is KSU beating KU good for MU? KU has 1 conf win...so does MU. if KSU beats KU, then it looks like the north race is about over.


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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneWarning View Post
    Hell, knowing our history, we will beat OSU and CU, only to blow a late FG against MU that costs us the title -- again.
    I could see that happening.


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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by FD Cyclone View Post
    1. Why is KSU not the favorite to win the north according to your projections? I understand the road game at NU is pretty pivotal, but they control their own destiny and have 2 home games to work with.

    2. Why is KSU beating KU good for MU? KU has 1 conf win...so does MU. if KSU beats KU, then it looks like the north race is about over.
    KSU is not favored to win the North because KSU is not favored to win any of its remaining games. If you think that's wrong, you can adjust the lines as you see fit. They're an underdog at home this weekend to KU, so I think it's pretty accurate.

    If K State beats KU, the Cats have four wins with Mizzou and NU left, and KU is then maxed out at 4 wins. In reality, that games means almost nothing for Mizzou. It shifts the probabilities less than 1%.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by erikbj View Post
    ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.
    That'd say that Iowa State is 11 points worse than OSU on a neutral field and Mizzou is 11 points better than Iowa State on a neutral field. MU is not >>>> OSU.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by Phenom View Post
    KSU is not favored to win the North because KSU is not favored to win any of its remaining games. If you think that's wrong, you can adjust the lines as you see fit. They're an underdog at home this weekend to KU, so I think it's pretty accurate.

    If K State beats KU, the Cats have four wins with Mizzou and NU left, and KU is then maxed out at 4 wins. In reality, that games means almost nothing for Mizzou. It shifts the probabilities less than 1%.
    Well, we don't want KSU to get a 4th win...so that projection isn't going to be popular here. Cyclone Rules '09: Root against the entire state of Kansas, favoring KU over KSU.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by CycoCyclone View Post
    ISU won't win the north, and that's ok. I'd like to beat CO and MO, then we go bowling and have the best record in at least 5 years.
    Wouldn't that be in three years; since we had 7 wins in '05? It does seem like longer though.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Quote Originally Posted by erikbj View Post
    ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.
    I hear what you're saying, but that's irrelevant, right? You change the odds. You make them whatever you think they'll be. Now it's just one guy throwing crap at the wall.



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Win the North or not, I couldn't be happier with where this team is. All things considered, I could have seen us winning 1-3 games. Helluva job so far!



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    Re: Chances of winning the North

    Yes we can. And, I predict on Decmeber 6 in Arlington, under the leadership of Santa Anna Rhoads, Iowa State will pummel the Longhorns to such an extent that the State of Texas will forget the Alamo.



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