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  1. #1
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    A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    As with last year, this year I've been keeping track of the same stats as I had before, tracking the progress of this team. Follow this link if you want to see what I had to say about the last four games. Hindsight is always 20-20, but it wasn't very hard to see how lousy of a finish it would be for the remainder of the 2008 season.

    http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...l-4-games.html

    Moving on to 2009, things look plenty better! It's probably a combination of a league that's down, but I also attribute it to a fresh new coaching style, and a team riddled with returning starters determined to fix what went wrong last season.

    Incoming wall of text, so if you don't want to be bored by my prediction methodology, skip ahead to the pretty numbers and stats.

    If you didn't follow the link and are unfamiliar with how I calculate these scores... I determine the effectiveness of a team's offensive and defensive production (YPP or Yards Per Point) by dividing their Average Yards on Offense by Average Points Scored. So, a team that scores the equivalent to a touchdown every 70 yards would have a YPP of 10. The same method is applied for their defense.

    Offensive YPPs on our schedule tend to run from 11 to 17. Note: they are not necessarily representative of an offense's potency. Team's with a low YPP often have offenses that score at will, or don't spent a lot of time on the field (due to a poor defense) Texas A&M's offense has a YPP of 13.62. They average 489 yards a game, and 35.9 points a game. Colorado has a lower YPP with 13.47, despite earning 301 yards a game, and 22.4 points.

    Conversely, defensive YPPs on our schedule run from 12 to 23. Like the offense, a favorable YPP rating does not indicate defensive stoutness. Baylor has a YPP of 16.5, despite giving up 401 yards a game... although they have a better scoring defense, giving up 24 points a game.

    The bottom line is, my YPP stat is just an indicate of how hard a team must work to score (or prevent) points on the board.

    To make a simplistic game prediction, I average Team A's Offensive Yards with Team B's Defensive Yards... and visa versa for Team B's offense. And the same thing is done for their YPP. I then divide the predicted Offensive output by the predicted YPP to determine the score that team will get.

    Keep in mind, if games were this easy to predict on paper, I'd be a millionaire. It's not a perfect science, but it gives a good indication of not only how a team should do based on their entire season, but whether they performed way above their expectations, or below their expectations. I also give the spread a 3 point spot depending on whether the game was on the road or at home. No spread adjustment was given for the Kansas State game with it being at Arrowhead.

    Here's how it's shaken down so far. Predicted score is in italics, actual score is in bold, and the spread accuracy denotes wether a team performed above or below expectations.

    vs. North Dakota State W 29-21 34-17 +9
    vs. Iowa W 20-19 L 3-35 -31
    at Kent State L 21-22 W 34-14 +21
    vs. Army W 25-16 W 31-10 +12
    vs. Kansas State (neutral) W 23-22 L 23-24 -2
    at Kansas L 21-27 L 36-41 0
    vs. Baylor W 25-20 W 24-10 +9
    at Nebraska L 14-25 W 9-7 +13
    at Texas A&M L 26-28 ?
    vs. Oklahoma State L 23-24 ?
    vs. Colorado W 27-19 ?
    at Missouri L 22-24 ?

    Record: 6-6 (3-5) 5-3 (2-2)

    Basically, if we're going straight by what it was predicting, the team will finish 6-6... but if they keep up the performance since they started in the Big 12, they will at least be a contender in each of their remaining games. It's a lot to ask for a 9-3 record, but at least stats somewhat are on their side.


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    I don't get it, what are you predicting for the rest of the season? Are those your old picks or new ones?



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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    well, he said we'd contend, not win, so I would imagine those are his current predictions since they are all quite close.



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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    The stuff in bold are statistical predictions. Versus KSU, ISU lost by a point when my calculated score actually had ISU favored by a point... so the spread was off by 2 points. They matched my calculated spread for KU, and then beat the calculated spread versus Baylor and Nebraska. Considering this spread has been widening ever since the conference games started, Barring any complete meltdowns next week at A&M, I think ISU should actually be able to win by a touchdown or more. Should.

    But MNCyGuy has it right, according to my calculations (!!) ISU should either win or lose each game by a very close number from here to the end of the season -- which will drive everyone crazy about the "season that could have been!"

    My current actual predictions are --

    at Texas A&M W 27-17
    vs. Oklahoma State L 28-31
    vs. Colorado W 24-13
    at Missouri W 17-14

    8-4 (5-3)


    Last edited by AirWalke; 10-28-2009 at 08:49 PM.
    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    Come on now, 1-3 in our next 4 games? When we have a great chance to win 3 of them?



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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    These are statistical projections/predictions?



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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclonenate View Post
    Come on now, 1-3 in our next 4 games? When we have a great chance to win 3 of them?

    i think he is predicting 3 wins and 1 loss with a final 2009 record of 8-4.


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  8. #8
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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclonesurveyor View Post
    i think he is predicting 3 wins and 1 loss with a final 2009 record of 8-4.
    Yes, stats say 1-3 to finish 6-6. (And those "losses" are all close games, meaning they could very well swing either way) Based on the trends, I'm saying 3-1 to finish 8-4. Frankly, I'd be ecstatic with a 2-2 finish and 7-5.


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    I love this team and the fact that we are playing pretty good football is awesome, but I really don't see us going better than 1-3/2-2 to finish. I think we are going to be close to a win at mizzou, but who knows how it will turn out. (similar to K-state and KU)
    We have major position injuries that change the game and sickness hanging around the lockerroom. Our offense is non existent with Tiller and JS due to them being so young etc..) I just think its a lot to ask, but who knows.

    I guess I just have this bad feeling that we are going to be 5-5 going into the last 2 games. And then the pressure will really be on.....
    If we finished 8-4 (5-3) that would be rediculus. Especially considering 2 of those loses were soooo close. That would probably get us into the B12 Title game and a Alamo/Holiday bowl bid (unless we win it :). It would be awesome, but just don't see 3 more wins. If we are going to win 2 more games I see it being the last 2. I am talking in circles...so I need to stop.


    Last edited by HandSanitizer; 10-28-2009 at 09:22 PM.

  10. #10
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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    I think we got a shot at beating OSU! I think the next four games are the biggest games in ISU history...is that crazy to say?



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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    Can you use the turnover margin to account for the difference between calculated and actual values?


    Believing in Kermuflin since 2009!

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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by agcy68 View Post
    Can you use the turnover margin to account for the difference between calculated and actual values?
    Usually that happens, but turnovers are a factor in whether or not an offense is efficient or not. Lots of yards but no points to show for it would tend to do raise their YPP... and conversely, a low YPP could also mean that the defense does a lot of the work by forcing turnovers and consistently giving the offense a shorter field.

    But you're right. Especially considering the spread differential for the Iowa game.


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: A Look at the Final 4 Games: 2009 Edition

    I think this team is starting to learn how to win. I also think that the K-State and KU games were part of the process. As hard as it may be to look back on those games thinking we should have won, I'm not sure that we should have won those. This team has improved tremendously all season, and it seems like they are finally about to click. Think back to Kent State earlier in the season...it was tough to watch both ways. I think something happened after the the KU game because this has been a completely different defensive effort since then. I don't remember who it was, but a defensive back just ripping the ball out of a Nebraska running back's hands, awesome to see! At this point, I'll be disappointed if we finish anything worse than 3-1.



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