Results 1 to 8 of 8
  1. #1
    Starter
    Points: 24,857, Level: 48
    Level completed: 31%, Points required for next Level: 693
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Posts
    876
    Points
    24,857
    Level
    48
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 6

    Expectations following a 2 win season.

    I was reading through a few different threads in the football forum and saw a variety of expectations for our record this season so I thought I would do a quick statistical analysis on what we can expect coming off a 2 win season. I posted my data and thoughts on my cyclone blog at: www.ultimatecyclone.com.

    Let me know what you think.



  2. #2
    All-Star
    Points: 31,634, Level: 54
    Level completed: 72%, Points required for next Level: 316
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Apollo Beach, Florida
    Posts
    1,667
    Points
    31,634
    Level
    54
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1
    Given: 0

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    There's that word again, "average". I am not a degreed mathematician, but I believe , statistically, you have to round DOWN to the nearest whole number in the case of football games. If we do out tonight and get that 0.86 of a win, that will be a loss. So 3.86 = 3 wins. Any math or stat folks out there? Do you know in how many of the cases of 2 wins that the coaching staff was retained for the following season?



  3. #3
    Starter
    Points: 24,857, Level: 48
    Level completed: 31%, Points required for next Level: 693
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Posts
    876
    Points
    24,857
    Level
    48
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 6

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    Quote Originally Posted by swammi View Post
    There's that word again, "average". I am not a degreed mathematician, but I believe , statistically, you have to round DOWN to the nearest whole number in the case of football games. If we do out tonight and get that 0.86 of a win, that will be a loss. So 3.86 = 3 wins. Any math or stat folks out there? Do you know in how many of the cases of 2 wins that the coaching staff was retained for the following season?
    You're absolutely right, 3.86 == 3 since we are dealing with the integer number line when discussing wins/loses.

    I didn't look into how many coaches were no longer with the team after 2 win seasons but that would be an interesting stat. If I get more time I'd like to include all teams with 0-3 win season instead of just 2 win seasons and then look at the mean improvement of all teams with first year head coaches, but that's quite a bit more research. Maybe I'll find time this weekend to expand this analysis some more, probably only if I'm happy with the outcome of the game; if we play poorly or lose, I'll have no motivation to look at this at all.



  4. #4
    Legend
    Points: 287,984, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 12.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    CloneAggie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    14,854
    Points
    287,984
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    Median improvement is 1 game (so 3 wins).

    The 95% Confidence Interval for improvement is (1.33,2.40). That would probably be the better statistic to provide than the simple point estimate.


    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. ~ George Carlin

    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life:
    The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves Orcs. ~ John Rogers

  5. #5
    Addict
    Points: 44,627, Level: 65
    Level completed: 29%, Points required for next Level: 923
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    mwitt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    5,801
    Points
    44,627
    Level
    65
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 4

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    I think we're due for an outlier.



  6. #6
    Legend
    Points: 287,984, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 12.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    CloneAggie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    14,854
    Points
    287,984
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    Quote Originally Posted by mwitt View Post
    I think we're due for an outlier.
    You should be more specific. -2 would also be an outlier.


    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. ~ George Carlin

    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life:
    The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves Orcs. ~ John Rogers

  7. #7
    Addict
    Points: 151,551, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    6,081
    Points
    151,551
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 73
    Given: 10

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    Double that win total would be a good step. Win 6, and damn, we are back in business.



  8. #8
    Addict
    Points: 44,627, Level: 65
    Level completed: 29%, Points required for next Level: 923
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    mwitt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    5,801
    Points
    44,627
    Level
    65
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 4

    Re: Expectations following a 2 win season.

    Quote Originally Posted by CloneAggie View Post
    You should be more specific. -2 would also be an outlier.
    If our defense doesn't get any better, that could be the case.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: FS1
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State
  • October 4, 2014
  • 11:00 AM