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    2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    In anticipation for the 2009 College football season, I thought it might be nice to put up some links to previews of our opponents and start some discussion. I'll start it off with the preseason favorite to win the North, KU.

    Here are a few links. If there are any other sites or previews out there please add.

    Interesting local site: (found on phog.net)
    2009 RCT Mythical Preseason Depth*Chart - Rock Chalk Talk

    Scout:
    Scout.com: 2009 CFN Kansas Preview

    A few notes to rehash and elaborate upon:

    Obvious strengths will be QB and WR. Reesing is a stud and the perfect QB for the KU offense. The stars alligned 2 years ago for KU, Reesing, and that season of success to all combine at once. He has settled in a groove and been rolling along ever since. I would expect that to continue this fall.

    Briscoe is a freak and I would count on him being around this fall (despite rumblings that he may have academice issues)

    I would also expect to see a solid Dbackfield as they return an experienced group and will transition to a 4-2-5 which enables all the playmakers back there to see the field.


    Apparent Weaknesses: Oline, LBs, Schedule

    Ku lost a solid core of the interior OL. Jeff Spikes returns but makes the switch from LT to RT. I remember last year there were lofty expectations and heavy pressure for Spikes to step in as a true frosh and play LT. He sufficed but there was a definite drop-off from 2007 as expected.

    The same hype is already surrounding RSFrosh Tanner Hawkinson, who is expected to fill the void at LT. I see size as a definite concern at this spot. Hawkinson is only 285 lbs playing at LT. The scout site mentions that he is up from 245lbs when he signed, huge gain but still is a bit light for this spot.

    I would again expect spotty play here and the potential for DE's to get into the pocket forcing Reesing to improvise. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, since he is known to excel on the run and make great decisions. More contact and forcing rushed decisions could no doubt have some affect on the efficiency of the offense though. I could potentially see a drop off in production here in 2009. Call me crazy but this Oline does not impress me and I see this as a big liability for KU this fall.


    Last edited by delt4cy; 08-03-2009 at 09:52 AM.

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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Isn't Nebraska actually the preseason pick according to the media/coaches poll released at the B12 Mediay Days?


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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    A few more things to note: KU gets OU at home and faces Tech and UT on the road. Getting just one of those is a lot to ask, although I think they can steal one from Tech in Lubbock.

    ISU is KU's first conference game. They will play a talented Southern Miss team the week before so I look for them to be well oiled and not underestimating the clones.

    Defensive concern: As I mentioned above, I believe they are switching to a 4-2-5 defensive scheme. IMO opinion with a new LB unit and a mediocre DL, it exposes Kansas to the run game. Teams with strong Olines and power Runningbacks may be able to pound the ball on this D.

    Thoughts?



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Quote Originally Posted by CylentButDeadly View Post
    Isn't Nebraska actually the preseason pick according to the media/coaches poll released at the B12 Mediay Days?
    You might be right, but I think up to this point I have heard KU as having the best team, just not the best South schedule, that's why NU is the pick.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Quote Originally Posted by delt4cy View Post
    You might be right, but I think up to this point I have heard KU as having the best team, just not the best South schedule, that's why NU is the pick.
    I know what you're saying. With Nebraska's D and running game, I'm not so sure that they aren't the best team. Apples to oranges though.

    Anyway, with a senior QB like Reesing, KU is going to have at least a puncher's chance in every game. I love the way Kerry Meier plays football and I wish there were more guys like him around the game. Briscoe is a 1st rounder if he can stay on the field. The ground game is sufficient, but nothing to get excited about. If KU is going to put together a great season, the D has to step up. They've lost a lot the last 2 years, but everyone claims Mangino has recruited well on that side of the ball, so we'll see if the unprovens can step up and get the job done. Like everyone has indicated, I would like their chances a lot more if they didn't play that schedule. However, they have enough games where they could pull a shocker and really make a statement about what type of program they are. I see them at 8-4.


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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    delt4cy hit the nail on the head. I think KU's success will hinge on them being able to stop the run. They lost 3 very good run stopping linebackers and are going to replace them with better athletes more suited for pass coverage. I think KU will be a lot better at stopping the pass this year but the stopping the run will be a question mark. They returned the entire D-line that was very young last year and they should be very deep. If that line can play up to their potential KU's D should be much improved. If not, the other teams will be able to run on KU and keep the O off the field.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    In a pass happy league, I can see why they are switching up there scheme. That being said, teams in the league CAN run the ball, and will if KU can't stop the run.
    Reesing is the perfect fit for that team, receivers are good and Sharp is capable running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.
    Mangino gets a lot of crap for being a morbidly obese individaul, but the guy can coach, and nobody can really debate that.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Since there aren't many other thoughts on this I'll add a prediction of their season to it.

    N. Colorado W
    @ UTEP W
    Duke W
    S. Miss very very close W
    ISU W
    @ CU W
    OU L
    @ Tech W
    @ KSU W
    Neb L
    @ Texas L
    Mizzou toss-up L

    6-0 start; lose 4 of 6 down the stretch for and 8-4 record and 2nd in the North



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Quote Originally Posted by delt4cy View Post
    Since there aren't many other thoughts on this I'll add a prediction of their season to it.

    N. Colorado W
    @ UTEP W
    Duke W
    S. Miss very very close W
    ISU W
    @ CU W
    OU L
    @ Tech W
    @ KSU W
    Neb L
    @ Texas L
    Mizzou toss-up L

    6-0 start; lose 4 of 6 down the stretch for and 8-4 record and 2nd in the North
    I prefer breaking it down like by percentage chance of wins, because arbitrarily assigning a W or L to a near 50/50 game can play with the predicted overall record. (Using this method, for what it's worth, I came up with 4.6 wins for ISU [ link to that post - http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...tml#post924943 ])

    Here's a ballpark of what I'd say for KU:

    vs. Northern Colorado - 100% chance of win
    @ UTEP - 80%
    vs. Duke - 90%
    vs. S. Miss - 85%
    vs. ISU - 90%
    @ CU - 60%
    vs. OU - 30%
    @ TTU - 40%
    @ KSU - 80%
    vs. NU - 60%
    @ UT - 20%
    neut. MU - 65%

    = 8.00 predicted wins, 4.00 losses (League 4.45 wins, 3.55 losses)

    KU will have the best group of receivers in the conference (and perhaps the nation, as weird as that sounds), and a QB who has racked up 20 wins and a few Heisman votes in 2 seasons. They should be enough to keep defenses out of the box and give Sharp some room to run. The left tackle spot will be the key to the offense, as KU will be starting a freshman who has never played a snap at offensive line in his life (that sounds bad when I type it out like that).

    On D, the D-line and secondary should be fine. I'd expect the D-line to be in the top half of the conference, and the secondary maybe average to a tad above average. The LBs will be green, but there's a lot of different types for Mangino and co. to work with, so there's a chance they find something that works by the time the season is over. Even if the LBs aren't that good, the offense should lead KU to 7-9 wins.

    This season, being Meier, Reesing, Briscoe, Sharp, and Stuckey's last in town, will be a critical one for KU as a program going forward.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Quote Originally Posted by kucyclone View Post
    I prefer breaking it down like by percentage chance of wins, because arbitrarily assigning a W or L to a near 50/50 game can play with the predicted overall record. (Using this method, for what it's worth, I came up with 4.6 wins for ISU [ link to that post - http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...tml#post924943 ])

    Here's a ballpark of what I'd say for KU:

    vs. Northern Colorado - 100% chance of win
    @ UTEP - 80%
    vs. Duke - 90%
    vs. S. Miss - 85%
    vs. ISU - 90%
    @ CU - 60%
    vs. OU - 30%
    @ TTU - 40%
    @ KSU - 80%
    vs. NU - 60%
    @ UT - 20%
    neut. MU - 65%

    = 8.00 predicted wins, 4.00 losses (League 4.45 wins, 3.55 losses)

    KU will have the best group of receivers in the conference (and perhaps the nation, as weird as that sounds), and a QB who has racked up 20 wins and a few Heisman votes in 2 seasons. They should be enough to keep defenses out of the box and give Sharp some room to run. The left tackle spot will be the key to the offense, as KU will be starting a freshman who has never played a snap at offensive line in his life (that sounds bad when I type it out like that).

    On D, the D-line and secondary should be fine. I'd expect the D-line to be in the top half of the conference, and the secondary maybe average to a tad above average. The LBs will be green, but there's a lot of different types for Mangino and co. to work with, so there's a chance they find something that works by the time the season is over. Even if the LBs aren't that good, the offense should lead KU to 7-9 wins.

    This season, being Meier, Reesing, Briscoe, Sharp, and Stuckey's last in town, will be a critical one for KU as a program going forward.
    Sounds like the Jayhawk boards are a lot like CF.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Quote Originally Posted by swarthmoreCY View Post
    Sounds like the Jayhawk boards are a lot like CF.
    You think 8 wins is too high? What was I too optimistic about?



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Kansas is my team in the North. I think the defense will be slightly better than people think. Obviously the offense will be fine.

    -4-0 in non-conference
    -5-3 in Big 12 play (win over Nebraska to settle tie breaker over little red)
    -17-24 point loss in Big 12 title game.



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    Re: 2009 Big 12N Previews & Discussion: Kansas

    Ku's offense should trump the subtractions NU, MU, and KSU will see on offense. As a result I don't think their defense will have to be that good to slow those teams down.


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