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  1. #1
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    How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    When this recession is over, how high do you feel the unemployment rate will go?

    The worst rumblings I've heard were in the "mid-teens", which I feel would be ugly and near-depression-like.

    Most others feel 10-11%


    U.S. jobless rate hits 8.1%; 651,000 jobs lost last month

    WASHINGTON — The nation’s unemployment rate bolted to 8.1 percent in February, the highest since late 1983, as cost-cutting employers slashed 651,000 jobs amid a deepening recession.
    Both figures were worse than analysts expected and the Labor Department’s report shows America’s workers being clobbered by a wave of layoffs unlikely to ease in the coming months.

    “There is no light at the end of the tunnel with these numbers,” said Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight. “Job losses were everywhere and there’s no hope for a turnaround any time soon.

    February’s net job loss came after even deeper payroll reductions in the prior two months, according to revised figures released today. The economy lost 681,000 jobs in December and another 655,000 in January.


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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    I hope it doesn't get much lower than 10 or 11%. I think it will be bad enough that most people will feel very grateful to have a job once everything starts to recover.



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by BryceC View Post
    I hope it doesn't get much lower than 10 or 11%. I think it will be bad enough that most people will feel very grateful to have a job once everything starts to recover.
    I am grateful right now. I should be working instead of on here



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    It probably already is well over 10% when you take into account people who are working part time.

    One good thing about these times, is it does make you appreciate your job and pay check more.



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobber View Post

    One good thing about these times, is it does make you appreciate your job and pay check more.
    Count your blessings !!


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    If I remember correctly, the unemployment rate at the height of the depression was around 30%, if it stays below 15% we should all be giving thanks.

    FWI- there are alot of industrialized countries that never have unemployment rates as low as we do now. I'm sure that's not much of a comfort for those out of work, but we do still have allot to be thankful for.



  7. #7
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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by jaretac View Post
    If I remember correctly, the unemployment rate at the height of the depression was around 30%, if it stays below 15% we should all be giving thanks.
    .
    I think you're close, but I heard about 25% in 1932. If we reach the "mid-teens" it will be the highest since '32:

    1982 recession: 11%
    '72-'74 recession: ?? - anybody know?


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by jaretac View Post
    If I remember correctly, the unemployment rate at the height of the depression was around 30%, if it stays below 15% we should all be giving thanks.

    FWI- there are alot of industrialized countries that never have unemployment rates as low as we do now. I'm sure that's not much of a comfort for those out of work, but we do still have allot to be thankful for.
    I have heard that the unemployment rate was calculated signficantly different back then in the Depression days, and that if we used the same method today we would be around like 15%. I have no idea what the methods are though, so if someone has more knowledge on this it would be interesting.



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by jaretac View Post
    If I remember correctly, the unemployment rate at the height of the depression was around 30%, if it stays below 15% we should all be giving thanks.

    FWI- there are alot of industrialized countries that never have unemployment rates as low as we do now. I'm sure that's not much of a comfort for those out of work, but we do still have allot to be thankful for.
    Its because we changed how we count unemployment. Under the old way they used back then, our unemployment rate would be substantially higher, or vice versa, the rate then wouldve been substantially lower if they used todays system for measurement. Additionally ive read that they didnt count the millions employed in government programs.



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    The thing is, the first Friday of every month (today), the Labor Dept releases the prior month's lay-offs, then revises the previous month higher.

    So come next month, I'm sure the 651K announced today, will be revised a lot higher.


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Probably 20+%, this is not going to get any better anytime in the near future. Wait till people realize that the government does not have the funds to keep bailing every bankrupt company out.


    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin 1775

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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by brianhos View Post
    Probably 20+%, this is not going to get any better anytime in the near future. Wait till people realize that the government does not have the funds to keep bailing every bankrupt company out.
    I hope not.. but it could easily be a house of cards ready to go at this point... the government is propping up these companies that will ultimately fail, because their business models brought them to where they are today, and theyll just continue to fail, so when they eventually do fail, youll get the same hurt you wouldve gotten, plus you take a big hit to the american government and taxpayer as well..



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    10-12% max. Unless everything goes completely to hell, and then no one will be keeping stats for a while.



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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by Go2Guy View Post
    I think you're close, but I heard about 25% in 1932. If we reach the "mid-teens" it will be the highest since '32:

    1982 recession: 11%
    '72-'74 recession: ?? - anybody know?

    The bean counters say that the 8.1% is more like 15 % (and the way stats were counted in 1932) if you consider underemployed, people not looking, part-timers, etc. Then you pit that to the 25%, So we are 60% of the way. California, our largest state, if counted by the fake new wqway is still over 10% today. It is no wonder they lost half their house value.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

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    Re: How High Do You Feel The Unemployment Rate Will Reach?

    Some of the places that try and make a 'true' unemployment number, including those not applying for unemployment benefits (because theyve run out) show at 18%



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