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  1. #1
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    Get ready for the bad news

    Ok, so this is where the stats get really ugly for the ISU men’s basketball team. Ken Pomeroy just put his individual Possession-Based stats up. For a quick overview, the percentages are calculated by looking at all of the player’s possessions and what they do with them. If they get an assist on a possession, that goes to their assist rate. If they shoot on a possession, that counts toward a shot possession. You get the idea. Here is a better explanation of it straight from the Pomeroy site:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/individual_stats/

    And here is the description of what we’re going to be talking about here: Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It is highly dependent on context, but anything below 15% is great. Average in 2005 was around 20%. Point guards are typically in the 20-25% range due to the nature of their position. Players that do little passing or dribbling will have an artificially deflated TO%.

    Now… this is where it gets downright hideous. Of all the possessions that Mike Taylor is involved in, he turns the ball over 30.3 % of the time. Corey McIntosh turns the ball over 33.8 % of the time. I know we are a young team and our guys aren’t used to playing together, but this has got to stop for ISU to be competitive in games. We can’t score like we did last year and turning the ball over (often leading to fast break opportunities for the other team as it did against UNI) will really submarine this team.

    For another look at how bad this is… There are only FIVE starting guards in the Big 12 that average over 30% TORate. The other three are freshman. I think you know where I’m going with this.

    This has got to get cleaned up or we’re going to get shellacked in conference play.




  2. #2
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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Thanks for putting the actual numbers behind the concern I stated following the Minnesota game.

    Turnovers = losses...most of the time.



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    I agree it needs to get better and I think it will. If you look at Taylor and McIntosh, they are probably equal to true freshman when you look at them coming from the JUCO ranks. JUCO ball is pretty much just like high school but even less disciplined. It's a dunk fest with very little ball control. I think that Corey and Mike have the skills, they just need to get in some more time with the style of play before they can show it.

    Now personally, I think Dunson is more of the complete package and will be giving them some serious competition for minutes late in the year or early next. Then add in what we have coming in and I think both Taylor and McIntosh could have their starting jobs in jeopardy if they don't learn to control the ball a lot more. If they can control the ball, they should start next year but some excellent talent is coming in and Dunson appears to be very well rounded for a freshman. This is just my opinion but I really like Dunson's eagerness and desire to get better.


    Last edited by Jeremy; 12-05-2006 at 07:00 PM.
    A program isn't built on one player and it doesn't succeed because of one player, thus a program won't fail if it doesn't get that one player.

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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Good find, Bryce. Those are some pretty worrying statistics. We can only hope they will improve before conference play.



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    The thing I like about Dunson over Taylor and McIntosh is he looks very fundamentally sound on defense.



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    I think Dunson will start over Cmac next year, if not by the end of the year...



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    I really thought Corey would adjust faster but he hasn't so far. I knew he wouldn't put up big points, he wasn't supposed to. I did however expect to see him do a little more creating and dishing.

    Taylor can hit it from anywhere but he needs to play with more discipline and try to take smarter shots. A three is good if it goes in but at times he's taking them from 3-5 feet from the line.

    Another problem that doesn't help the situation is we don't have a big-guy to get the dishes when Taylor or McIntosh do penetrate. They get in there and have nowhere to go so they end up turning it over.

    About Dunson... He really excels at just about everything. He has a lot of learning to do but its great to see him talking to the coaching staff every second he can to see what he needs to do differently. That will be very beneficial down the road. It might be a year or two but I think he'll be a very solid 25-35 minute a game guard. He has some stiff competition coming in but he'll fight to the end.


    Last edited by Jeremy; 12-05-2006 at 08:34 PM.
    A program isn't built on one player and it doesn't succeed because of one player, thus a program won't fail if it doesn't get that one player.

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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    I think Dunson is a GREAT player. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, Dunson has 2 turnovers in 151 minutes of play and an incredible 4.5 assist/turnover ratio. Taylor, on the other hand, has 48 turnovers to 256 minutes played. I think Dunson deserves a few more minutes, but I trust McDermott completely with who to play, and will give him some leway.



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Taylor's turning the ball over almost as much as Blalock and Stinson added together. They had 191 combined TO's last year in 30 games for 6.4 pear game. Taylor averages 6.0 so far this year.



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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Dunson is our point guard at this point. Helter skelter in Big 12 play will be the crack of doom. I do not think McD will let them play like junkyard dogs once the Big 12 begins. Short rope. Many of these are unforced turnovers, such as carrying the ball. Not McDermot like.

    I have analyzed our schedule and I see us going 16-15 and missing post season play at current level of play.


    Last edited by Wesley; 12-05-2006 at 10:39 PM.
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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    How about a little help defense as well? It's truely pathetic when the other team wins with a last second layup off a standard defensive set. We need someone to get nasty in the paint!



  12. #12
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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    hey guys, there's a reason why these guys were still available for Mac. they're not great players, good, yes, great, no.


    Don't confuse hope for a plan.

  13. #13
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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    I agree Magic, but I'm not asking them to be great players. I just want them to take care of the basketball.

    That being said, I think the foot infection set Dunson back a little bit and I fully expect him to be starting before Big 12 play. I think he came alive during the Drake game. I liked what I saw there.




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    Smile Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Trn-Ovr Stat's are key and worth noting and tracking. However, GMAC can't rectify things overnight. No doubt, conference is going to be tough, always is. However, with GMAC's precesses you will be very happy with the progress, not so much this year probably but after that.



    Quote Originally Posted by BryceC View Post
    Ok, so this is where the stats get really ugly for the ISU men’s basketball team. Ken Pomeroy just put his individual Possession-Based stats up. For a quick overview, the percentages are calculated by looking at all of the player’s possessions and what they do with them. If they get an assist on a possession, that goes to their assist rate. If they shoot on a possession, that counts toward a shot possession. You get the idea. Here is a better explanation of it straight from the Pomeroy site:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/individual_stats/

    And here is the description of what we’re going to be talking about here: Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It is highly dependent on context, but anything below 15% is great. Average in 2005 was around 20%. Point guards are typically in the 20-25% range due to the nature of their position. Players that do little passing or dribbling will have an artificially deflated TO%.

    Now… this is where it gets downright hideous. Of all the possessions that Mike Taylor is involved in, he turns the ball over 30.3 % of the time. Corey McIntosh turns the ball over 33.8 % of the time. I know we are a young team and our guys aren’t used to playing together, but this has got to stop for ISU to be competitive in games. We can’t score like we did last year and turning the ball over (often leading to fast break opportunities for the other team as it did against UNI) will really submarine this team.

    For another look at how bad this is… There are only FIVE starting guards in the Big 12 that average over 30% TORate. The other three are freshman. I think you know where I’m going with this.

    This has got to get cleaned up or we’re going to get shellacked in conference play.



  15. #15
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    Re: Get ready for the bad news

    Chris Williams over at CycloneNation also posted an article today about this very topic.

    http://iowastate.scout.com/2/598227.html




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