ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down
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    ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    I was talking to a guy in my office who is a huge football fan, and he claims that somebody did a study that proves a team would be better off if they went for it on just about every 4th down rather than punting it (statistically speaking anyway). That got me thinking about ISU. I noticed that our defense is actually better with a short field than they are with a long field. For 2008 at least, ISU would have been better off going for it on almost every 4th down. Besides, what difference does it make if Mizzou goes 80 yards or 40 yards? Going for it on 4th down would give the offense a chance to score some more points and perhaps keep up. What do you think? Is there a coach alive that would be willing to take that risk? Mike Leach goes for it on 4th down more than any coach I know of, and he's been pretty successful. I don't think that's mere coincidence.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    That'd be neutralizing our most effective player this year, actually.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    Quote Originally Posted by StLouisClone View Post
    I was talking to a guy in my office who is a huge football fan, and he claims that somebody did a study that proves a team would be better off if they went for it on just about every 4th down rather than punting it (statistically speaking anyway). That got me thinking about ISU. I noticed that our defense is actually better with a short field than they are with a long field. For 2008 at least, ISU would have been better off going for it on almost every 4th down. Besides, what difference does it make if Mizzou goes 80 yards or 40 yards? Going for it on 4th down would give the offense a chance to score some more points and perhaps keep up. What do you think? Is there a coach alive that would be willing to take that risk? Mike Leach goes for it on 4th down more than any coach I know of, and he's been pretty successful. I don't think that's mere coincidence.
    and we should run the option every time.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    They did a report on outside the lines about this. From what I can remember, it was a statistical analysis of how teams fared over the last X years when they went for it on 4th down.

    The study found that you have a high percentage of sucess if you go for it on 4th down. What they failed to consider was the fact that usually a coach will not go for it on 4th down unless a) he has to or b) he knows he has a real shot. It's case B that biases the data, in my mind.


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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    Quote Originally Posted by StLouisClone View Post
    I was talking to a guy in my office who is a huge football fan, and he claims that somebody did a study that proves a team would be better off if they went for it on just about every 4th down rather than punting it (statistically speaking anyway). That got me thinking about ISU. I noticed that our defense is actually better with a short field than they are with a long field. For 2008 at least, ISU would have been better off going for it on almost every 4th down. Besides, what difference does it make if Mizzou goes 80 yards or 40 yards? Going for it on 4th down would give the offense a chance to score some more points and perhaps keep up. What do you think? Is there a coach alive that would be willing to take that risk? Mike Leach goes for it on 4th down more than any coach I know of, and he's been pretty successful. I don't think that's mere coincidence.

    Read that article attached, maybe this is what they were talking about?



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    I know other teams have had great success going for it on 4th down against us. Anyone know what the exact numbers are? I can't recall us stopping anyone on 4th down off the top of my head but I could tell you lots of examples of teams converting against us, including Kansas on 4th and long.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    All I know is my high school coach rarely let us go for it on 4th down, unless it was late, game on the line.
    His philosophy was that the intensity on first, second and third down suffers if the players know that there is a good chance you will have one more play. He may have been right. We always knew that we'd better convert on third down, or we were coming off the field...



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    In '06 against Texas Tech - punt was our best offensive play - seriously. No way we can give that up.

    However, I'm really thinking it wouldn't be a bad idea for us to onside kick it about 50% of the time.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    As far as going for it on 4th: often times its a short yardage situation like 4th and 1 or 4th and inches where losing the field position doesn't hurt you too bad (outside of FG range, on the goal line, etc).

    The other common situation is when it's 4th and long and you're going for desperation. Your QB isn't really giving a F about whether he throws and INT or not, he's just going to put it up there. You tend to play more risky in that situation.

    As far as Texas Tech goes: they've been built around a high powered offense. They always have been putting up high amounts of points with Leech as their coach. Our offense struggles to get to the upper 20s.

    To me, the data for going for it on 4th is based on some pretty specific situations and it's a pretty biased sample set.


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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    ISU should figure out how to run for 1 to 2 yards when they have to, then they can worry about going on fouth down. I would bet that ISU has done better this year at 4th and 5+ yards than 4th and 2. The running play up the middle against MU at the 3 was amazing. How the heck can you line up in the I and run up the middle and loose 4 yards? The DL was in the backfield before AA had the ball pulled from under center.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    I don't think we should've gone for it one 4th down all the time, especially considering we could rarely get a yard or 2 when we needed it. Seemed like when we really needed a 1 or 2 yard gain, we got lit up in the back field


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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    I think our defense would be at their best if our opponents were only allowed two downs.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    Herm Edwards punted to the 12 and th opponent went onto get a fieldgoal Sunday and the Chief lost the game. I bet he wished he had that decision back.


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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    Brandtner for heisman.



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    Re: ISU should go for it on almost every 4th down

    TMQ (Tuesday Morning Quarterback on ESPN Page 2) preaches this tactic for the NFL, in which the average offensive play gains 5 yards. So, if it's 4th down and less than five (I'd guess that the majority of 4th down plays are less than five yards to the first down), you are actually playing the odds by going for it.

    TMQ is a great read by the way, appearing every Tuesday during the NFL season. He writes a lot about non-football related items as well.



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