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Thread: Oil below $70

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    Oil below $70

    I am surprised it's down below $70

    FT.com / World - Opec brings forward crunch meeting

    OPEC will most certainly cut production, but I wonder if that will stop the fall? I said two months ago that I don't expect it to be below $50 per bbl ever again...and it may not be...but man, what a fall! And with the global economy slowing down, I don't know that production cuts are going to be enough of a bandaid to support prices.

    At some point, its a good buy...but then you have to pick your outmonth right...and right about now, people are not confident in the economy.

    Buying an option a year or two out, that might be a bad play. BUT, being this is a contango market, crude futures are in the upper 70's and 80s for the nearest years...and closed at 86 today for December of 2016.

    No near term support, but long term bulls still exist.


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    Re: Oil below $70

    Way over my head. But a comment... I told my 23 year old son this morning that I can't wait for this election to be over and how sick of it I am.

    His reply? "Yeah, and then gas prices will shoot up again." 23 and already cynical.


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    Re: Oil below $70

    Oil isn't the only commodity that the fast money crowd has abandoned.

    Oil might be one of the most dramatic plunges though..

    How much lower does it have to fall before the U.S. government bails these pour souls out? Oil has plunged much worse than the stock market...



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    Re: Oil below $70

    And to think everyone was in a panic and predicting $5-10 gas a couple of months ago..... too funny.



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Ban the freaking speculators! They're driving the price down. This is ridiculous!



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by JonDMiller View Post
    BUT, being this is a contango market, crude futures are in the upper 70's and 80s for the nearest years...
    Are you sure it's contango and not normal backwardation?


    Dean Wormer was wrong. Fat, drunk and stupid was a great way to go through college (all five years of it).

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    Re: Oil below $70

    I've been watching the futures on oil, and I still think its playing a little high for the long term, at least in investment terms. I'd stay away personally, methinks it could be too volatile in either direction. If the futures were lower, I might be tempted to play.



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Compared to crude's historic price average of $35 a barrel, it's currently 100% higher, higher than any other commodity. The next highest is gold, at 56%. Many other metals are only 20 to 30% higher.

    Relative to per capita income, the bank said oil prices would have to fall to about $45 a barrel to return crude to it's historical average.

    Link:
    Cheap oil: the stock selloff's silver lining - Oct. 10, 2008


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    Re: Oil below $70

    I thought it was odd that Iraq thinks that oil was priced right at $100/barrel....

    Iraq Oil Minister says OPEC could cut production - Oct. 16, 2008



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    Compared to crude's historic price average of $35 a barrel, it's currently 100% higher, higher than any other commodity. The next highest is gold, at 56%. Many other metals are only 20 to 30% higher.

    Relative to per capita income, the bank said oil prices would have to fall to about $45 a barrel to return crude to it's historical average.

    Link:
    Cheap oil: the stock selloff's silver lining - Oct. 10, 2008
    The same can be said of corn and soybeans - both were at record or near record levels this summer, have retreated by 50%, and still are well above their historic price levels.



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by matmann22 View Post
    Oil isn't the only commodity that the fast money crowd has abandoned.

    Oil might be one of the most dramatic plunges though..

    How much lower does it have to fall before the U.S. government bails these pour souls out? Oil has plunged much worse than the stock market...
    Much worse than the stock market... so far.



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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by TykeClone View Post
    The same can be said of corn and soybeans - both were at record or near record levels this summer, have retreated by 50%, and still are well above their historic price levels.
    The article that I had linked claimed, that "contrary to press reports talking about how expensive food is, adjusted for inflation many food stuffs are actually lower than their long-term historical average price."

    In addition, it stated, "compared to crude's historic price average of $35 a barrel, it's currently 100% higher, higher than any other commodity. The next highest is gold, at 56%. Many other metals are only 20 to 30% higher."


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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    The article that I had linked claimed, that "contrary to press reports talking about how expensive food is, adjusted for inflation many food stuffs are actually lower than their long-term historical average price."

    In addition, it stated, "compared to crude's historic price average of $35 a barrel, it's currently 100% higher, higher than any other commodity. The next highest is gold, at 56%. Many other metals are only 20 to 30% higher."
    Amen. Hope oil goes to $35.



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    Re: Oil below $70

    I know it may bother some people, but if you are a greedy capitalist, there are going to be some nice buys in the stock market soon. Do some research on your own, but with stocks being hit and oil prices falling, some stocks have to be very attractive for the long term. Also, I would think that John Deere, Cat, 3m, any of the market leaders may be a good purchase soon for a long term investment. I think Statoil is a good purchase right now:

    STO - StatoilHydro ASA (ADR) - Google Finance

    Also Schlumberger or Haliburton:

    SLB - Schlumberger Limited - Google Finance

    HAL - Halliburton Company - Google Finance

    Thoughts? Just curious what you guys think.


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    Re: Oil below $70

    Quote Originally Posted by gogagig View Post
    Ban the freaking speculators! They're driving the price down. This is ridiculous!
    Ummm.........These same speculators that you are so upset with for artificially depreciating the price of commodities are the exact same speculators that bought into this market and artificially appreciated the same commodity prices. These spec's add a lot of volatility to the market and allow price swings in a week's time that, before they were around, are wider then they were in a years time back 10 yrs ago.


    A lot of money to be made/lost in these marketing times. You justs hope you are making it more then you are losing it.



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