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    Cyclone42
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    Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Just posting this for the humor value. This article was composed late last year, and it is funny to see just how far wrong they were. At least here in Omaha, since late March, we've had probably a dozen or so days in which it did not rain. We've had plenty of rain this spring, and it just keeps coming and coming and coming.

    Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    And add to that the cars pictured on kcci.com in the flooded parking lot of the Ames Wal Mart.


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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    I'm by no means disagreeing with your post, but....
    We have only had 2 inches of rain here this month. Average is over 3. The rain just keeps skipping to the north and south. (usually by about 15-20 miles) My grass is already turning brown, as though it is july. In fact, I was just outside watering my garden because things were not looking so hot.
    So send some of that rain to Burnsville!



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Are these the same clowns that predicted a record # of hurricanes last year (undoubtedly due to global warming)?


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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone42 View Post
    Just posting this for the humor value. This article was composed late last year, and it is funny to see just how far wrong they were. At least here in Omaha, since late March, we've had probably a dozen or so days in which it did not rain. We've had plenty of rain this spring, and it just keeps coming and coming and coming.

    Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008
    History is a good indicator of a possible drought in 2008. Jumping to conclusions this early in a season is not good science. I certainly hope we don't get too dry, but 1988 was a wet spring and one of the worst drought years in (Iowa) history. I also notice the person quoted in the article is from Iowa State.


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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Carl1977 View Post
    History is a good indicator of a possible drought in 2008. Jumping to conclusions this early in a season is not good science. I certainly hope we don't get too dry, but 1988 was a wet spring and one of the worst drought years in (Iowa) history. I also notice the person quoted in the article is from Iowa State.
    Elwynn Taylor - mr. everything is cyclical.

    I've heard him give a talk about the chances of a drought a couple years ago, and he was pointing to 2008 and 2009 at that time based upon a couple of different cyclical things going on at the time.



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by jdoggivjc View Post
    Are these the same clowns that predicted a record # of hurricanes last year (undoubtedly due to global warming)?
    Same clowns: Bozo and his friends.


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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    So... summer is over already? We don't have a chance for a drought?


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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Summer hasn't even begun. A drought is still very possible.



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    We didn't have a wet spring in 1988 -too many dry field fires in April; spring 1983 was wet with hot dry summer. The difference between 1988 and now is that at least we have some subsoil moisture in case it does turn off dry. In 1988, 11 of 12 months were under in precipitation (Nov. was exception) plus it was one hot hell of a summer. I know everyone hates the rain but if we have a drought it will be a total disaster-food prices will explode even further and numerous farmers will go under.



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Anticyclonic has his weather history right. 1988 was very hot and dry clear into early August. 1983 was wet into early June when the rains shut off and it turned hot. A scenario somewhat like 1983 is what Elwynn Taylor has been saying is possible or most likely. He's not saying it's absolutely going to happen--he's saying given that LaNina is going away, conditions are shifting to favor it happening in a few more weeks. The timing of any drought determines how devastating it is. No one really even notices them if they occur during the fall months. I'm sure he explained it carefully and then the reporter condenses it down to a catchy headline. Elwynn is a very down-to-earth regular guy.

    Here are his latest comments:

    detail



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Hasn't snowed in May either. I would take that mean that it won't snow the rest of the year.



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    We should have a CyBookie bet on how many inches of rain we will have in June and July. I'd bet all I have that we will experience a drought this summer.



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    It can turn off dry fast. Through just a few days ago, before all the bad weather hit, we were getting fairly dry for May. Even though we are ahead on rainfall, we need an inch of rain a week in June. I am sure it will all balance out in July.

    1988 was the opposite of 1993, that year was about 15" below precipitation for the year dependent were you lived. At least most crops grew in 93' (those that were not flooded by overflowing streams).



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    Re: Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by TykeClone View Post
    Elwynn Taylor - mr. everything is cyclical.

    I've heard him give a talk about the chances of a drought a couple years ago, and he was pointing to 2008 and 2009 at that time based upon a couple of different cyclical things going on at the time.
    I can't remember a time when Elwynn isn't talking about a drought. Years and years. One of these summers he'll get it right just by chance. And being down to earth, hardly. His arm must be pretty limber to be able to reach his back that easily.



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