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  1. #196
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    I thought sports books always tried to get equal action on both sides.



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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    Quote Originally Posted by rochclone View Post
    Thanks for explaining this AltHawk. The common misperception from people is that Vegas wants equal money on a game. They don't give a crap if Iowa State has $800,000 on it and North Dakota State $400,000. They want to win. However, what they do want to avoid is a tremendous amount of line movement from opening line to closing line. That type of line movement allows a potential "middle" situation which subsequently can cost the books alot of money.
    Sportsbooks make their money off the vig, not off betting on one side or another beating the spread. The whole business model is to make money regardless of the outcome. A bookmaker who tries to be smarter than everybody else and nudge betting to one side isn't going to last very long.

    Do you have a source for this being a misconception?


    Last edited by Judoka; 08-20-2014 at 08:03 PM.

  3. #198
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    That game at Drake still stinks to high heaven. Stinks as in one person with deep pockets knowing "something" and raking in as much public money as possible. I won't be surprised if we know more in 20 years.



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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    I think this sums up my feelings on the matter.




  5. #200
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    I guess my explanation is this. Vegas and offshore books look at bettors differently. If you are a professional and wager $100,000 a game then you will be able to move a line. But if they view the bettor as a "square" then you can't bet $500,000 and that line isn't moving a half a point. They care about being heavy on one side only if they respect the bettor.



  6. #201
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    So here's a link to the line movement for the ISU-Drake game, 8th post down in the forum:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ege-hoops.html

    Your whole notion that the game stayed at ISU -1 when all the big money was coming in on ISU is just wrong. The line opened at ISU -3.5, got up to ISU -5 then dropped to ISU -1, the big money was obviously coming in on Drake.



  7. #202
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    You can easily point out who hasn't ever seriously been involved in sports-wagering... Fellas, the books don't want 50-50, if the public is hammering a side and the book predicts the other way the line will stay the same. Rochclone's point was on track to how it works.



  8. #203
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    Quote Originally Posted by ClonesFTW View Post
    You can easily point out who hasn't ever seriously been involved in sports-wagering... Fellas, the books don't want 50-50, if the public is hammering a side and the book predicts the other way the line will stay the same. Rochclone's point was on track to how it works.
    Except that's not what happened at all, as the line didn't say the same, rather moved from ISU-4.5 to ISU -1.



  9. #204
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    Quote Originally Posted by CyJack13 View Post
    Except that's not what happened at all, as the line didn't say the same, rather moved from ISU-4.5 to ISU -1.
    I wasn't referring to that game, I was just making a generalization about public wagering/reverse line movements.



  10. #205
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    Quote Originally Posted by ClonesFTW View Post
    I wasn't referring to that game, I was just making a generalization about public wagering/reverse line movements.
    Well either way, it's not true. They want equal money on both sides, that's the whole point of the line. I can post plenty of links to interviews with oddsmakers where they talk about that. They may get stuck on a side due to the money coming in an unexpected manner and decide they're OK with taking a risk there to avoid a dramatic line change opening them up to further losses, but they absolutely try to get even money.

    If you have any link to an oddsmaker talking about how they take a side, I would be interested in reading it.



  11. #206
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    Re: NDSU favored by 2

    CyJack,

    My apologies on the Drake/ISU line movement...I simply didn't recall the line movement occurring in that fashion. As for the other point about wanting equal money on both sides....I don't necessarily disagree with you. The goal of the opening line is to get equal money on both sides. However, after that point....Vegas/Sportbooks/Locals none of them care at that point if they have money on both sides if it means a substantial movement in the lines. Great example is the following...Iowa State opens up as a 5.5 favorite against Toledo. The books want money on both sides but when it comes to line movement they are primarily considering only "smart" money. For instance they don't want to move that line 5.5 to 6.0 to 6.5 to 7.5 just because in the opening 24 hours they are heavy on Iowa State money by $150,000. It sets them up for a "professional" or often groups of professionals dropping $500,000 on Toledo at plus 7.5 and now they feel obligated to move it back under 7.0 opening up the opportunity to lose multiple bets.

    The goal of the opening line is to get equal money...but more important to a book is making sure the line stays "tight" from "open" to "close."



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