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    Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Many college football fanatics read Steele's magazine each summer. While reading it and his blog from June 30 I noticed ISU was a team that met some of his trends. Last yr ISU was 3-9 and Sportsbooks have O/U @ 3.5 for 2014.

    ISU netted 3 close losses last yr. ISU won 1 game by a TD or less but lost 4 by a TD or less. Over the past 12 yrs teams with 3 net close losses have same or better record 79.6% of the time the following yr.
    ***WV game counted even though 8 pt win (triple OT)

    Defensive yards per point. Last yr opponents averaged 1 pt for every 12.86 yards. As we know this is not good! 2 teams had over 500 yards offense vs ISU, 1 team over 600, and 1 team over 700. The positive is since 1990 teams in this category have same or better record the following yr 69.4% of the time.

    Lastly Steele has ISU a +3 on his stock indicator. This factors in performance over the past few yrs. Since 1990 teams with a +3 have same or better record 73.7% of the time.

    In conclusion, 3.5 wins could be a tough wager to make. However, if u have a friend or know someone who is an ISU hater you may be able to bet them O/U 3 wins. If ISU wins 3 you push and 4 you win. Much better than the 3.5. Maybe someone can win a case of beer off a buddy using this info!
    HAVE A GREAT DAY CYCLONE NATION!!



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by BaxterClone View Post
    Many college football fanatics read Steele's magazine each summer. While reading it and his blog from June 30 I noticed ISU was a team that met some of his trends. Last yr ISU was 3-9 and Sportsbooks have O/U @ 3.5 for 2014.

    ISU netted 3 close losses last yr. ISU won 1 game by a TD or less but lost 4 by a TD or less. Over the past 12 yrs teams with 3 net close losses have same or better record 79.6% of the time the following yr.
    ***WV game counted even though 8 pt win (triple OT)

    Defensive yards per point. Last yr opponents averaged 1 pt for every 12.86 yards. As we know this is not good! 2 teams had over 500 yards offense vs ISU, 1 team over 600, and 1 team over 700. The positive is since 1990 teams in this category have same or better record the following yr 69.4% of the time.

    Lastly Steele has ISU a +3 on his stock indicator. This factors in performance over the past few yrs. Since 1990 teams with a +3 have same or better record 73.7% of the time.

    In conclusion, 3.5 wins could be a tough wager to make. However, if u have a friend or know someone who is an ISU hater you may be able to bet them O/U 3 wins. If ISU wins 3 you push and 4 you win. Much better than the 3.5. Maybe someone can win a case of beer off a buddy using this info!
    HAVE A GREAT DAY CYCLONE NATION!!
    Have a really hard time thinking we don't win at least 4. Give me NDSU, Toledo and Kansas and we only have to win one of the other 9? That has to be achievable.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Isu81
    I lean towards 4 wins also. ND St graduated lots of players. ISU Is 13-2 last 15 home openers in Ames. ISU has won 4 straight vs Kansas by average of 19 pts. ISU is also 6-3 last 9 home finales (play WV this yr). Now ISU needs to beat Toledo and ISU will have 4 wins. Plus ISU is capable of upsetting teams. Figure in Steeles numbers from above and it seems doable. However if I am backing it with money I personally would stay off over/under 3.5 but would bet a friend some beer at 3. The stats mentioned in this post are also from Phil Steele.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Embarrassing to have such a crappy team that our own fan base is debating about whether 3.5 is a good bet for O/U.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by iowast8fan View Post
    Embarrassing to have such a crappy team that our own fan base is debating about whether 3.5 is a good bet for O/U.

    Exactly. Anything short of a 6-6 breaks my heart. And by now, we should be expecting more than that.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by iowast8fan View Post
    Embarrassing to have such a crappy team that our own fan base is debating about whether 3.5 is a good bet for O/U.
    I think it's more the negative nellies of the fanbase that are the problem, willing to believe absolutely anything negative that anyone says, regardless of justification--or lack thereof.


    Go Cyclones!

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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    I think those percentages are high because its hard to be much worse. 4-8 is looking like your best bet.


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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by Aclone View Post
    I think it's more the negative nellies of the fanbase that are the problem...
    There are probably a significant number (including me) that are waiting to see what happens on August 30. If we return to UNI form, the negative vibe will be far from Nellie. I'm hoping that the current coaching staff will have them ready for the opener, unlike last year.


    Clone to the Bone with the up and coming IOWA STATE.

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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Last season we were limping from a bowl loss. I think the guys thought you could just show up and you make a bowl. This year they had to listen to how awful they were. Couple that with arguably the best staff we've ever had at ISU and we may surprise some people. We just have to stay healthy and get some confidence in the first game and build off that.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    After ISU's second bye they play 4 AWFUL teams to end the year.

    An 0-8 ISU team could win out the last 4 games.

    @KU TTech (Kingsberry is a clown like Holgerson and is backing a kid who punched a woman they will fall apart by Nov 22 much better than playing them early) WVA @TCU (high quit factor here too that Boykin will be long gone prob will have 3rd string QB in)

    4 easy wins at the end of the year.

    So over is a good bet. Beat NDSU and it comes in.

    But theres no real easy games after NDSU until the bye after Oklahoma. Toledo could win the MAC.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by iowast8fan View Post
    Embarrassing to have such a crappy team that our own fan base is debating about whether 3.5 is a good bet for O/U.
    There are far more ppl who are unrealistically positive, I think we're better than a 3 win team 4.5 would be a more accurate discussion IMO. To me the expectations are more about what we've seen than ppl just being negative. The same ppl with super high expectations will be the ones making excuses if things don't go great. You can already fill in the "It takes X amount of seasons to learn Mangino's offense" for every thread about the offense struggling.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    SyracuseCyclone
    Boykin likely will be at WR or RB and on kick returns this yr with the Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel playing QB. TCU will be tough this yr. TCU should be an 8 win team. For the 1st time since joining B12 they have a team with upperclassmen.
    Completely agree about Toledo, no one should pencil them in as a W, they will be a solid team.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by Aclone View Post
    I think it's more the negative nellies of the fanbase that are the problem, willing to believe absolutely anything negative that anyone says, regardless of justification--or lack thereof.
    Negative nellies? Vegas set the W/L total at 3.5 and we lost to UNI last season when we were a 9.5 favorite. I think the people you call "negative nellies" are just being realistic about this team.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    Quote Originally Posted by bos View Post
    Exactly. Anything short of a 6-6 breaks my heart. And by now, we should be expecting more than that.
    Agreed. I would sign up for 6-6 and a Bowl loss right now for this year though, but would certainly expect more in 2015.



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    Re: Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

    WE WILL MAKE MINCEMEAT OUT OF TOLEDO FOR HOMECOMING.


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