Page 1 of 8 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 109
  1. #1
    Prospect
    Points: 6,029, Level: 22
    Level completed: 96%, Points required for next Level: 21
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered5000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    20
    Points
    6,029
    Level
    22
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 15
    Given: 0

    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	OFFPzYq.png 
Views:	530 
Size:	42.2 KB 
ID:	25245

    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zKt2TqY.png 
Views:	636 
Size:	58.3 KB 
ID:	25246

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.



  2. #2
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 94,713, Level: 95
    Level completed: 83%, Points required for next Level: 337
    Overall activity: 46.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    gogagig's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    4,708
    Points
    94,713
    Level
    95
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 830
    Given: 318

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Nerds like me like nerd stats like this.



  3. #3
    Addict
    Points: 110,423, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 25.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    JP4CY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Sommerset
    Posts
    7,300
    Points
    110,423
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,077
    Given: 420

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Rematch with WVU is most probable then.



  4. #4
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 41,471, Level: 62
    Level completed: 87%, Points required for next Level: 179
    Overall activity: 14.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran25000 Experience Points
    wonkadog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    3,973
    Points
    41,471
    Level
    62
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 323
    Given: 268

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I'd guess quite a few of us would reverse those percentages for the KSU game.


    "It's appropriate for leaders sometimes to move boldly against the flow of public opinion," she said. "That's called leadership." --- Sarah Swisher (D), Superdelegate, Iowa City

  5. #5
    Pro
    Points: 51,027, Level: 69
    Level completed: 92%, Points required for next Level: 123
    Overall activity: 6.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Burnsville, MN
    Posts
    3,350
    Points
    51,027
    Level
    69
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 249
    Given: 49

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Very cool. Thanks for putting this together. Lots still up for grabs. Scary that ISU has three tossups left.



  6. #6
    Speechless
    Points: 429,744, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 88.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    64,423
    Points
    429,744
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,362
    Given: 1,013

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	OFFPzYq.png 
Views:	530 
Size:	42.2 KB 
ID:	25245

    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zKt2TqY.png 
Views:	636 
Size:	58.3 KB 
ID:	25246

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.
    This says we avoided playing the first day....and we have a 55,50,60 per cent chance of winning our last three games.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, 3sus, Hallice, Deonte, Dustin, Abdel, Monte, Matt, and McKaT.

  7. #7
    Rookie
    Points: 16,083, Level: 38
    Level completed: 55%, Points required for next Level: 367
    Overall activity: 6.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    590
    Points
    16,083
    Level
    38
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 115
    Given: 152

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I believe the most important game (that ISU is not playing in) the rest of the way, is Kansas State at Oklahoma State. A win by OK St would go a long ways towards us getting a 2 or 3 seed in the tourney.



  8. #8
    Rookie
    Points: 3,678, Level: 17
    Level completed: 57%, Points required for next Level: 172
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    510
    Points
    3,678
    Level
    17
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 130
    Given: 151

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Hacksaw is the best. Love his stuff for both The Valley and the Big 12!



  9. #9
    All-Star
    Points: 26,980, Level: 50
    Level completed: 44%, Points required for next Level: 570
    Overall activity: 6.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,057
    Points
    26,980
    Level
    50
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 179
    Given: 68

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.



  10. #10
    Addict
    Points: 110,423, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 25.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    JP4CY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Sommerset
    Posts
    7,300
    Points
    110,423
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,077
    Given: 420

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    We need Oklahoma and Tech to beat Texas at home. Man, that would be great.



  11. #11
    Hooper drives the boat, Chief
    Points: 624,501, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 96.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupVeteran50000 Experience PointsRecommendation Second Class
    Mr Janny's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    24,420
    Points
    624,501
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 3,131
    Given: 276

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by jboffer View Post
    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.


    "What a horrible night to have a curse."
    -Simon Belmont

    "Please bury me with all my stuff, because you know it's mine..."
    -Master Shake

    "Passersby were amazed by the unusually large amounts of blood."
    -Lorem Ipsum

  12. #12
    Starter
    Points: 14,394, Level: 36
    Level completed: 44%, Points required for next Level: 456
    Overall activity: 15.0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    698
    Points
    14,394
    Level
    36
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 71
    Given: 2

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    In the words of Darth Vader, 'Impressive, MOST impressive!'

    That is cool. I wish getting the second seed was the greatest scenario, but being the 3rd seed is better than being the 4th seed.

    I was a little surprised that the odds of us winning is higher at KSU than winning at Baylor. I would have flipped them around.

    In all reality, I would hope we can get one of those road games, and if I was a betting man, I would put my money on winning in Waco, than winning in the Little Apple.

    It would be nice to get as many sweeps in conference play as we could. I think we had 3 sweeps last year (Baylor, TCU, and WV). So far this year we only have TCU and Tech. It would be nice to add Okie St, KSU and Baylor!



  13. #13
    Pro
    Points: 29,541, Level: 52
    Level completed: 81%, Points required for next Level: 209
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Ankeny, IA
    Posts
    2,542
    Points
    29,541
    Level
    52
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 72
    Given: 33

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Yeah we need to win an OU needs to lose otherwise odds are we are in the 4/5 game



  14. #14
    All-Star
    Points: 26,980, Level: 50
    Level completed: 44%, Points required for next Level: 570
    Overall activity: 6.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,057
    Points
    26,980
    Level
    50
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 179
    Given: 68

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Janny View Post
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.
    Hmmmm that is a good point. The most important thing is that we avoid the 4/5 game.

    But... but... second place...



  15. #15
    Legend
    Points: 177,789, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 38.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Rhoadhoused's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    10,234
    Points
    177,789
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,133
    Given: 605

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I think there are advantages to both the 2 and the 3.

    If we can get 2nd outright, that is important to me as an ISU fan as far as conference finish.

    2nd seed most likely gets an opponent on a back to back.

    3rd seed likely plays a less talented team.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: TBD
  • FOOTBALL: Iowa State vs. UNI
  • August 29, 2015
  • 06:00 PM