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  1. #1
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    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Nerds like me like nerd stats like this.



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Rematch with WVU is most probable then.


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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I'd guess quite a few of us would reverse those percentages for the KSU game.


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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Very cool. Thanks for putting this together. Lots still up for grabs. Scary that ISU has three tossups left.



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	OFFPzYq.png 
Views:	533 
Size:	42.2 KB 
ID:	25245

    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zKt2TqY.png 
Views:	641 
Size:	58.3 KB 
ID:	25246

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.
    This says we avoided playing the first day....and we have a 55,50,60 per cent chance of winning our last three games.


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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I believe the most important game (that ISU is not playing in) the rest of the way, is Kansas State at Oklahoma State. A win by OK St would go a long ways towards us getting a 2 or 3 seed in the tourney.



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Hacksaw is the best. Love his stuff for both The Valley and the Big 12!



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    We need Oklahoma and Tech to beat Texas at home. Man, that would be great.


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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by jboffer View Post
    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.


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  12. #12
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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    In the words of Darth Vader, 'Impressive, MOST impressive!'

    That is cool. I wish getting the second seed was the greatest scenario, but being the 3rd seed is better than being the 4th seed.

    I was a little surprised that the odds of us winning is higher at KSU than winning at Baylor. I would have flipped them around.

    In all reality, I would hope we can get one of those road games, and if I was a betting man, I would put my money on winning in Waco, than winning in the Little Apple.

    It would be nice to get as many sweeps in conference play as we could. I think we had 3 sweeps last year (Baylor, TCU, and WV). So far this year we only have TCU and Tech. It would be nice to add Okie St, KSU and Baylor!



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Yeah we need to win an OU needs to lose otherwise odds are we are in the 4/5 game



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Janny View Post
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.
    Hmmmm that is a good point. The most important thing is that we avoid the 4/5 game.

    But... but... second place...



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    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I think there are advantages to both the 2 and the 3.

    If we can get 2nd outright, that is important to me as an ISU fan as far as conference finish.

    2nd seed most likely gets an opponent on a back to back.

    3rd seed likely plays a less talented team.



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