Page 1 of 8 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 109
  1. #1
    Prospect
    Points: 3,996, Level: 18
    Level completed: 37%, Points required for next Level: 254
    Overall activity: 9.0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    12
    Points
    3,996
    Level
    18
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	OFFPzYq.png 
Views:	525 
Size:	42.2 KB 
ID:	25245

    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zKt2TqY.png 
Views:	633 
Size:	58.3 KB 
ID:	25246

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.



  2. #2
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 76,558, Level: 86
    Level completed: 1%, Points required for next Level: 1,792
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    gogagig's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,636
    Points
    76,558
    Level
    86
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 124
    Given: 21

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Nerds like me like nerd stats like this.



  3. #3
    Addict
    Points: 112,488, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 23.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    JP4CY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Sommerset
    Posts
    6,297
    Points
    112,488
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 326
    Given: 138

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Rematch with WVU is most probable then.



  4. #4
    Pro
    Points: 37,220, Level: 59
    Level completed: 48%, Points required for next Level: 630
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran25000 Experience Points
    wonkadog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    3,393
    Points
    37,220
    Level
    59
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 86
    Given: 109

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I'd guess quite a few of us would reverse those percentages for the KSU game.


    "It's appropriate for leaders sometimes to move boldly against the flow of public opinion," she said. "That's called leadership." --- Sarah Swisher (D), Superdelegate, Iowa City

  5. #5
    Pro
    Points: 47,309, Level: 67
    Level completed: 26%, Points required for next Level: 1,041
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Burnsville, MN
    Posts
    2,951
    Points
    47,309
    Level
    67
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 70
    Given: 15

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Very cool. Thanks for putting this together. Lots still up for grabs. Scary that ISU has three tossups left.



  6. #6
    Speechless
    Points: 399,000, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 29.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    58,861
    Points
    399,000
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 555
    Given: 355

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	OFFPzYq.png 
Views:	525 
Size:	42.2 KB 
ID:	25245

    For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zKt2TqY.png 
Views:	633 
Size:	58.3 KB 
ID:	25246

    Hope you all enjoy this, let me know if you have any questions.
    This says we avoided playing the first day....and we have a 55,50,60 per cent chance of winning our last three games.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

  7. #7
    Rookie
    Points: 14,661, Level: 36
    Level completed: 77%, Points required for next Level: 189
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    487
    Points
    14,661
    Level
    36
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 27
    Given: 21

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I believe the most important game (that ISU is not playing in) the rest of the way, is Kansas State at Oklahoma State. A win by OK St would go a long ways towards us getting a 2 or 3 seed in the tourney.



  8. #8
    Bench Warmer
    Points: 2,365, Level: 13
    Level completed: 72%, Points required for next Level: 85
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    259
    Points
    2,365
    Level
    13
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 34
    Given: 29

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Hacksaw is the best. Love his stuff for both The Valley and the Big 12!



  9. #9
    Starter
    Points: 19,822, Level: 42
    Level completed: 97%, Points required for next Level: 28
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    774
    Points
    19,822
    Level
    42
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 77
    Given: 21

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.



  10. #10
    Addict
    Points: 112,488, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 23.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    JP4CY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Sommerset
    Posts
    6,297
    Points
    112,488
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 326
    Given: 138

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    We need Oklahoma and Tech to beat Texas at home. Man, that would be great.



  11. #11
    Hooper drives the boat, Chief
    Points: 600,510, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 34.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupVeteran50000 Experience PointsRecommendation Second Class
    Mr Janny's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    22,352
    Points
    600,510
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,317
    Given: 117

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by jboffer View Post
    This Saturday is crazy.

    10-5 Texas at 9-6 OU

    10-5 ISU at 9-6 Kstate

    Hopefully us and OU take care of business.
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.


    "What a horrible night to have a curse."
    -Simon Belmont

    "Please bury me with all my stuff, because you know it's mine..."
    -Master Shake

    "Passersby were amazed by the unusually large amounts of blood."
    -Lorem Ipsum

  12. #12
    Bench Warmer
    Points: 4,219, Level: 18
    Level completed: 93%, Points required for next Level: 31
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points3 months registered

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    232
    Points
    4,219
    Level
    18
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    In the words of Darth Vader, 'Impressive, MOST impressive!'

    That is cool. I wish getting the second seed was the greatest scenario, but being the 3rd seed is better than being the 4th seed.

    I was a little surprised that the odds of us winning is higher at KSU than winning at Baylor. I would have flipped them around.

    In all reality, I would hope we can get one of those road games, and if I was a betting man, I would put my money on winning in Waco, than winning in the Little Apple.

    It would be nice to get as many sweeps in conference play as we could. I think we had 3 sweeps last year (Baylor, TCU, and WV). So far this year we only have TCU and Tech. It would be nice to add Okie St, KSU and Baylor!



  13. #13
    Pro
    Points: 28,014, Level: 51
    Level completed: 43%, Points required for next Level: 636
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Ankeny, IA
    Posts
    2,371
    Points
    28,014
    Level
    51
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 27
    Given: 8

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Yeah we need to win an OU needs to lose otherwise odds are we are in the 4/5 game



  14. #14
    Starter
    Points: 19,822, Level: 42
    Level completed: 97%, Points required for next Level: 28
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    774
    Points
    19,822
    Level
    42
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 77
    Given: 21

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Janny View Post
    I'm on the fence. If our goal is either a 2 or 3 seed, wouldn't we want both Texas and us to win? That would put us two games ahead of the 4 seed with two games to play.
    Hmmmm that is a good point. The most important thing is that we avoid the 4/5 game.

    But... but... second place...



  15. #15
    Addict
    Points: 187,061, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Rhoadhoused's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    8,567
    Points
    187,061
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 493
    Given: 234

    Re: Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    I think there are advantages to both the 2 and the 3.

    If we can get 2nd outright, that is important to me as an ISU fan as far as conference finish.

    2nd seed most likely gets an opponent on a back to back.

    3rd seed likely plays a less talented team.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: FS1
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State
  • October 4, 2014
  • 11:00 AM