To foul or not to foul if up by 3?
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  1. #1
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    To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    To foul or not to foul if up by 3? Why or why not?



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Here is one thought...

    Late game defensive strategy with a 3-point lead -- NBA research for 82games.com

    The basic conclusion we come to is this:
    With time running out (final possession), and a 3-point lead, the defensive team is roughly 4 times more likely to "blow the lead" and have to play overtime if they choose to play defense, rather than foul in the waning seconds of the game.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    I'd kill to be in that position tomorrow night.


    @RandomGeoFacts

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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?




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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    If I was coaching, I'd try to have my team foul, but only if we had practiced good (non-shooting and non-flagrant) fouls. I'm shocked more teams don't just run through screens, or hold jerseys on off-ball cuts, in this scenario, because there is no chance it would be a shooting foul.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    When the Cyclones are involved, either decision would invariably be the wrong one.

    Play defense, and that 13% 3PT shooter on the other team banks it in at the horn and the Clones go down in OT.

    Foul, and the 11% FT shooter on the other team makes the first to cut the deficit to 2, misses the second but his teammate gets the rebound, passes out, and another 13% 3PT shooter nets a 3 at the horn to win by 1.

    It will happen every time. Because Cyclones.


    Last edited by tejasclone; 01-28-2014 at 03:33 PM.

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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by wamfam View Post
    To foul or not to foul if up by 3? Why or why not?
    That depends, are you Iowa State or any other team at any level of basketball.


    Step 1: Cut a hole in the box.

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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by im4cyclones View Post
    There are a lot of assumptions (which one has to take, so not bashing the guy) in the purely theoretical approach taken in the above link. Play-by-play data from actual games show it's not quite so clear cut and, with either method, the team up 3 wins over 90% of the time: the kenpom.com blog

    PHP Code:
              W   L   OT   Win%   Cases
    Foul    122   5   11   92.0    138
    Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676 



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by kucyclone View Post
    If I was coaching, I'd try to have my team foul, but only if we had practiced good (non-shooting and non-flagrant) fouls. I'm shocked more teams don't just run through screens, or hold jerseys on off-ball cuts, in this scenario, because there is no chance it would be a shooting foul.
    Good idea, but have to be weary of the intentional foul or flagrant foul. These are very rarely called at the end of the game, but as stated before...Iowa State.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    As if the dozens of other threads where people have argued in circles on this subject weren't enough...troll on.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by TurbulentEddie View Post
    There are a lot of assumptions (which one has to take, so not bashing the guy) in the purely theoretical approach taken in the above link. Play-by-play data from actual games show it's not quite so clear cut and, with either method, the team up 3 wins over 90% of the time: the kenpom.com blog

    PHP Code:
              W   L   OT   Win%   Cases
    Foul    122   5   11   92.0    138
    Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676 
    only when the odds are long in the wrong direction can we make it happen



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Overall I don't think it matters, I prefer the idea of fouling with less than 5 seconds or so though.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Whatever Fred chooses is the correct answer.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by JWIL4CY View Post
    Whatever Fred chooses is the correct answer.
    Unless we lose.



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    Re: To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by abe2010 View Post
    only when the odds are long in the wrong direction can we make it happen
    Seems like the football team sucks up all the good karma every year



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