3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense
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    3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Fellas,

    I started a week or so ago diving into the three point shooting that we're seeing from the team this year as compared to last year. Before the season I hypothesized a drop in performance so I wanted to take a look. I was mostly right, but due to other factors it was proven that the team is still making threes on a nearly as frequent basis as last year.

    This task morphed into a look at all components of the offense compared to last year and toward the end I dove into what has been going wrong in the past three games. Take a look and I am interested in any comments or questions.

    There is even a bar graph, and bar graphs are fun, right?

    Shooting and Spacing |




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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    I like bar graphs



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Good analysis.



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    That is awesome stuff. Thanks khaal



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Great job. I wonder if the staff does a similar analysis?


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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    wow - great job, but I need to print this out and study it like I did my Thermodynamics lectures.


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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Psiclone View Post
    Great job. I wonder if the staff does a similar analysis?
    I am sure they do. Fred is an NBA guy so they are often mentioning and referring to advanced stats when discussing game plans.



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Interesting stuff. Would have liked a pie chart though.



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Thanks for all of the feedback.

    Quote Originally Posted by 3TrueFans View Post
    Interesting stuff. Would have liked a pie chart though.
    A pie chart would be my usual method for this, but I wanted to be able easily compare side by side with last year.

    I suppose I could just make a pie chart for here, though.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	2014 poss pie chart.JPG 
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Size:	39.6 KB 
ID:	24431


    Last edited by khaal53; 01-21-2014 at 11:18 AM.


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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Dude, I usually have to read your stuff twice to make sure I get it, but I am always impressed when I do. Great analysis! Thanks for the info (and for making me feel stupid).



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    mmmm... pie.



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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Good stuff khal.

    The comparison of individual shooters is more informative. (although a 3% drop overall is significant imo). The two charts showing the top 5 shooters is telling, especially when ordered by 3P attempts rather than %. In other words, weighting the players 3P% to better reflect the influence of his accuracy (or lack thereof). Like you alluded to, it is much more important that guys ending a higher % of the possessions with 3P shots are your best shooters % wise (need to have guys that make defense consistently pay). Ordering those two charts that way and thinking about spacing, and you can just see the court getting smaller.

    Another thing to consider is small-ball. A 3% drop is pretty big in small ball, as is your center and your main perimeter shooters all shooting significantly worse. Imo small-ball is conceding points on defense/rebounding because that number will be outpaced by the advantage on offense. That gets a lot harder when you are shooting worse on 3Ps and depending more 2P.

    This does not even get into the subjective/qualitative "clutch" shooting, which is related to the question of whether you can trust stats stuffed on non-conference. Pomeroy's assessment is nice, but an answer to a different question, especially when a team relies on 3Ps to compensate.


    Last edited by swarthmoreCY; 01-21-2014 at 12:46 PM.

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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Quote Originally Posted by swarthmoreCY View Post
    Good stuff khal.

    The comparison of individual shooters is more informative. (although a 3% drop overall is significant imo). The two charts showing the top 5 shooters is telling, especially when ordered by 3P attempts rather than %. In other words, weighting the players 3P% to better reflect the influence of his accuracy (or lack thereof). Like you alluded to, it is much more important that guys ending a higher % of the possessions with 3P shots are your best shooters % wise (need to have guys that make defense consistently pay). Ordering those two charts that way and thinking about spacing, and you can just see the court getting smaller.

    Another thing to consider is small-ball. A 3% drop is pretty big in small ball, as is your center and your main perimeter shooters all shooting significantly worse. Imo small-ball is conceding points on defense/rebounding because that number will be outpaced by the advantage on offense. That gets a lot harder when you are shooting worse on 3Ps and depending more 2P.

    This does not even get into the subjective/qualitative "clutch" shooting, which is related to the question of whether you can trust stats stuffed on non-conference. Pomeroy's assessment is nice, but an answer to a different question, especially when a team relies on 3Ps to compensate.
    Thanks.

    As noted, when I started putting this together (prior to the OU game) this year's team was just 1% behind last year's from the three point line. They changed after a couple of pretty rough performances.

    I think you make a good point about average attempts per game by player and the % they shoot and how that is different from last year.

    I wouldn't necessarily agree about "small ball" and conceding points at the other end at a faster rate than small ball offense is scoring, thus negating the mismatch. First of, by adjusted defensive efficiency Iowa State is 21st in the country per Ken Pomeroy. That takes tempo and quality of opponents into consideration. That is as good as we have seen in some time and by far the best under Hoiberg.

    Even the rebounding component which is necessary to complete the good defensive stops is there by rebounding 71.6% of misses on defense (52nd in the country). Admittedly, that has slipped in the past three games and ISU was the top defensive rebounding team in the country a couple of weeks ago. While the thought may be out there that ISU is now getting "exposed" against tougher competition I don't think that can be unequivocally proven right now. That would negate all of the solid rebounding in the first 14 games, which anomaly is more likely? All while noting that Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas are the 84th, 52nd, and 37th best offensive rebounding teams in the country, respectively.

    Obviously, size can play a role in all of those areas. I don't think "small ball" or a lack of size is anywhere near mutually exclusive to being a poor defensive team or poor rebounding team.




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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    I wouldn't necessarily agree about "small ball" and conceding points at the other end at a faster rate than small ball offense is scoring, thus negating the mismatch. First of, by adjusted defensive efficiency Iowa State is 21st in the country per Ken Pomeroy. That takes tempo and quality of opponents into consideration. That is as good as we have seen in some time and by far the best under Hoiberg.

    Even the rebounding component which is necessary to complete the good defensive stops is there by rebounding 71.6% of misses on defense (52nd in the country). Admittedly, that has slipped in the past three games and ISU was the top defensive rebounding team in the country a couple of weeks ago. While the thought may be out there that ISU is now getting "exposed" against tougher competition I don't think that can be unequivocally proven right now. That would negate all of the solid rebounding in the first 14 games, which anomaly is more likely? All while noting that Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas are the 84th, 52nd, and 37th best offensive rebounding teams in the country, respectively.

    Obviously, size can play a role in all of those areas. I don't think "small ball" or a lack of size is anywhere near mutually exclusive to being a poor defensive team or poor rebounding team.
    That is not what I said, or meant to allude. Of course they are not mutually exclusive. One is moving down faster than the other is moving up (from some hypothetical benchmark)- overall "good" or "bad" of each quantity was not part of my statement.

    In your opinion, do you go small because you are maximizing your defense and rebounding performance? Imo you should always be maximizing the net (of defense, rebounding, and offense). I think it is clear that Hoiberg thinks what he gets on offense by going small will on average be more than what he may lose on defense/rebounding. Again, this is not a statement on overall quality of any of those three, but the give and take between them.

    Oh yes, on average. That average is greatly influence by competition. I know kenpom takes into account quality of opponents, but that is open to the same questioning right now. Let's see the comparison of season after conference play. Imo small-ball averages come with a higher variability- in other words your opponent matters more. It is like us seemingly always saying X player came into the game only shooting 30% from the outside. Was that 30% on open shots because all the other teams must also double everything in the post?

    I am not certain how this year's small-ball defense improving over previous year's small-ball defense/rebounding is a rebuttal. That is only one part of the equation. It does bring up a question I have. Is our line-up really small-ball enough? Imo I think we could be caught in the middle. With Hogue, to a degree Kane, and Georges not shooting 3P well, we are not small-ball enough on offense, but still vulnerable to the weakness of small-ball on defense/rebouding against many teams (i.e good teams).


    Last edited by swarthmoreCY; 01-21-2014 at 01:55 PM.

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    Re: 3 point shooting, spacing, and the Cyclone offense

    Nice write up. It's interesting to see actual statistics instead of 'gut feelings'.



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