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    Project Finished - Need some help from Football Experts!

    Update: So I just finished the project I was working on, and as promised here is a copy. I pulled out some of the technical stuff that nobody else probably cares about. Thanks again for your help!

    Elicitation of Expert Opinion on College Football Offenses - CF.pdf



    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    Estimate of Points Scored per Game Per Team
    Same thing, for point scored.

    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!


    Last edited by besserheimerphat; 12-19-2013 at 03:56 AM.
    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  2. #2
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    3.5 3-5


    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    20 7-30

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    6 4.2-8.3

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.

    28 15-48


    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.
    No.

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!
    Pure guesses.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

  3. #3
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    3.5 (Avg), 3-6


    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    6, 0-15


    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    4, 0-6

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.

    28, 17-35


    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.

    ​Yes, HS

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!


    Last edited by Bret44; 12-06-2013 at 08:31 PM.
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Ha! What makes you think there is a single football expert on here? Clearly you are new to this site.


    Last edited by Cypower69; 12-06-2013 at 08:20 PM.

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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yards per rush: 4, 3-5

    Yards per pass: 8, 4-12

    All plays: 6, 3-12

    Points per game: 30, 14-41

    College football player? No



  6. #6
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Question:

    For PPG, do you want total? Or per team.


    Mine was based off the total scored.


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  7. #7
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    I meant per team, thanks for catching that. I edited the original post. For your entry I'll just divide it by two (unless you want to specify a different range).


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  8. #8
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I meant per team, thanks for catching that. I edited the original post. For your entry I'll just divide it by two (unless you want to specify a different range).

    Thanks, I edited my entry.


    When Kids see the Hilton Atmosphere and our style of play, the get really interested in Iowa State
    - Fred Hoiberg

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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Estimate of Yards per Rush

    Average 4.5 yrds 80% are between -2 yds and 10 yds

    [B]Estimate of Yards per Pass
    7.5 yds and 80% between 0 and 20 yds

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.
    Avg. 5.5yds 80% between -2 yds and 15 yds

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.
    Assume you mean per team not total. I will say the average is around 30 pts per game 80% 10 to 45 pts

    [B]Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    Yes former college player

    I would suggest linking a survey. This isnt pure with everyone seeing each others fwiw



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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cypower69 View Post
    Ha! What makes you think there is a single football expert on here? Clearly you are new to this site.

    He's been here longer than you, noob.




  11. #11
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bret44 View Post
    Question:

    For PPG, do you want total? Or per team.


    Mine was based off the total scored.
    I did the single team.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by IAStubborn View Post
    I would suggest linking a survey. This isnt pure with everyone seeing each others fwiw
    Yeah, I know that and it was something I considered going in. But if I were doing this type of thing for work I'd probably get a group of experts together in the same room to talk it out for an hour until we all settled on our priors.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yards per rush: 3.3 Ave 1.5-7

    Yards per pass: 6.5 Ave 0-15

    All plays: 4.5 3-11

    Points per game: 30 14-35

    College football player? No


    It's all snark from here on out

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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yo, go to ESPN,
    go NCAAF,
    find the STATS heading,
    open it ,
    scroll down
    go to Team stats,
    find rushing ,
    go to ave per team,
    copy and paste the column to a Excel sheet ,
    add the averages and divide the sum by 123 ( # of team in FBS)
    then do the same for all the other stats you want.

    Coached football middle school, high school, classes 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A.
    Now retired, Cyclone Fan since 1958.

    Simple.


    Last edited by berther48; 12-07-2013 at 10:04 AM.
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    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by berther48 View Post
    Yo, go to ESPN,
    go NCAAF,
    find the STATS heading,
    open it ,
    scroll down
    go to Team stats,
    find rushing ,
    go to ave per team,
    copy and paste the column to a Excel sheet ,
    add the averages and divide the sum by 123 ( # of team in FBS)
    then do the same for all the other stats you want.

    Coached football middle school, high school, classes 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A.
    Now retired, Cyclone Fan since 1958.

    Simple.
    Did you read his post? He doesn't want the actual numbers. He wants everyone's best guesses as to what they think they are?



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