Need some help from Football Experts!
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 20
  1. #1
    Pro
    Points: 64,323, Level: 78
    Level completed: 68%, Points required for next Level: 527
    Overall activity: 13.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    besserheimerphat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Mount Vernon, WA
    Posts
    2,829
    Points
    64,323
    Level
    78
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 188
    Given: 296

    Project Finished - Need some help from Football Experts!

    Update: So I just finished the project I was working on, and as promised here is a copy. I pulled out some of the technical stuff that nobody else probably cares about. Thanks again for your help!

    Elicitation of Expert Opinion on College Football Offenses - CF.pdf



    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    Estimate of Points Scored per Game Per Team
    Same thing, for point scored.

    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!


    Last edited by besserheimerphat; 12-19-2013 at 03:56 AM.
    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  2. #2
    Speechless
    Points: 407,934, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 56.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    61,062
    Points
    407,934
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 874
    Given: 605

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    3.5 3-5


    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    20 7-30

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    6 4.2-8.3

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.

    28 15-48


    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.
    No.

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!
    Pure guesses.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

  3. #3
    Addict
    Points: 212,523, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 63.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience PointsRecommendation Second ClassSocial
    Bret44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Hampton, IA
    Posts
    9,841
    Points
    212,523
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2,912
    Given: 1,803

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I am doing a project for one of my grad school classes and I need CF's help. The class is Data Collection and Analysis, and the topic I've chosen is elicitation and use of expert opinion as it relates to FBS football. So what do I need from you?

    Estimate of Yards per Rush
    I'd like a single value of how many yards you think are gained per rush on average across all of FBS college football (not just the Cyclones), along with an estimate of the range of all values. For example, "I think the average yards per rush is 5 yards, and 80% of all rushes are between -1 and 8 yards." You can give me an average or a median as long as you let me know which it is. Or give me a median and an average if you're so inclined. Just let me know what it is.

    3.5 (Avg), 3-6


    Estimate of Yards per Pass
    Same as above, but for pass attempts (note that I want per attempt, not per completion).

    6, 0-15


    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.

    4, 0-6

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.

    28, 17-35


    Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    I will use this info to do some weighting of the data.

    ​Yes, HS

    Please reply to this thread with your "expert opinions!"
    I want your opinions, not actual data! I know I could just look up straight averages, but that doesn't give me any estimate of variabiility. And most importantly, it doesn't give me any estimate of the uncertainty in the opinions of the subject matter experts. I will just compile the data straight out of the thread.

    So why do I need this data? I'm going to use the expert opinions gathere here to create baseline prior probability distributions for all FBS college football teams. Then I'll take real game data (certainly from ISU, but I could choose any team if you have other suggestions) and make Bayesian updates after each "game" through the entire season. Then I'll compare my Bayesian updates from each "game" to the real end-of-the-season distributions and see how long it takes for the updates to converge on the real answer. As a bonus, I'll do the same for any bowl pairings announced over the next week and see if they are useful for making bowl game predictions.

    Let me know if you have any questions on what I'm asking for and I will explain further.Thanks in advance for your help, Fanatics!


    Last edited by Bret44; 12-06-2013 at 08:31 PM.
    When Kids see the Hilton Atmosphere and our style of play, the get really interested in Iowa State
    - Fred Hoiberg

  4. #4
    Walk On
    Points: 2,125, Level: 12
    Level completed: 92%, Points required for next Level: 25
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered

    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Iowa City, IA
    Posts
    191
    Points
    2,125
    Level
    12
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 23
    Given: 63

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Ha! What makes you think there is a single football expert on here? Clearly you are new to this site.


    Last edited by Cypower69; 12-06-2013 at 08:20 PM.

  5. #5
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 56,047, Level: 73
    Level completed: 34%, Points required for next Level: 1,003
    Overall activity: 17.0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    4,508
    Points
    56,047
    Level
    73
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 740
    Given: 342

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yards per rush: 4, 3-5

    Yards per pass: 8, 4-12

    All plays: 6, 3-12

    Points per game: 30, 14-41

    College football player? No



  6. #6
    Addict
    Points: 212,523, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 63.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience PointsRecommendation Second ClassSocial
    Bret44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Hampton, IA
    Posts
    9,841
    Points
    212,523
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2,912
    Given: 1,803

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Question:

    For PPG, do you want total? Or per team.


    Mine was based off the total scored.


    When Kids see the Hilton Atmosphere and our style of play, the get really interested in Iowa State
    - Fred Hoiberg

  7. #7
    Pro
    Points: 64,323, Level: 78
    Level completed: 68%, Points required for next Level: 527
    Overall activity: 13.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    besserheimerphat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Mount Vernon, WA
    Posts
    2,829
    Points
    64,323
    Level
    78
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 188
    Given: 296

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    I meant per team, thanks for catching that. I edited the original post. For your entry I'll just divide it by two (unless you want to specify a different range).


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  8. #8
    Addict
    Points: 212,523, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 63.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience PointsRecommendation Second ClassSocial
    Bret44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Hampton, IA
    Posts
    9,841
    Points
    212,523
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2,912
    Given: 1,803

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I meant per team, thanks for catching that. I edited the original post. For your entry I'll just divide it by two (unless you want to specify a different range).

    Thanks, I edited my entry.


    When Kids see the Hilton Atmosphere and our style of play, the get really interested in Iowa State
    - Fred Hoiberg

  9. #9
    Pro
    Points: 44,328, Level: 65
    Level completed: 6%, Points required for next Level: 1,222
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered25000 Experience Points
    IAStubborn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Des Moines
    Posts
    3,414
    Points
    44,328
    Level
    65
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 441
    Given: 130

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Estimate of Yards per Rush

    Average 4.5 yrds 80% are between -2 yds and 10 yds

    [B]Estimate of Yards per Pass
    7.5 yds and 80% between 0 and 20 yds

    Estimate of Yards per Play
    Same thing again, for all plays.
    Avg. 5.5yds 80% between -2 yds and 15 yds

    Estimate of Points per Game
    Same thing, for point scored.
    Assume you mean per team not total. I will say the average is around 30 pts per game 80% 10 to 45 pts

    [B]Are you a former college player (any level) or a coach (Grades 9+)?
    Yes former college player

    I would suggest linking a survey. This isnt pure with everyone seeing each others fwiw



  10. #10
    Legend
    Points: 310,298, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 83.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranOverdrive
    00clone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Iowa City area
    Posts
    10,615
    Points
    310,298
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2,556
    Given: 610

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cypower69 View Post
    Ha! What makes you think there is a single football expert on here? Clearly you are new to this site.

    He's been here longer than you, noob.




  11. #11
    Speechless
    Points: 407,934, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 56.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    61,062
    Points
    407,934
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 874
    Given: 605

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bret44 View Post
    Question:

    For PPG, do you want total? Or per team.


    Mine was based off the total scored.
    I did the single team.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

  12. #12
    Pro
    Points: 64,323, Level: 78
    Level completed: 68%, Points required for next Level: 527
    Overall activity: 13.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    besserheimerphat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Mount Vernon, WA
    Posts
    2,829
    Points
    64,323
    Level
    78
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 188
    Given: 296

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by IAStubborn View Post
    I would suggest linking a survey. This isnt pure with everyone seeing each others fwiw
    Yeah, I know that and it was something I considered going in. But if I were doing this type of thing for work I'd probably get a group of experts together in the same room to talk it out for an hour until we all settled on our priors.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  13. #13
    Speechless
    Points: 348,285, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 13.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupRecommendation Second ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Tre4ISU's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Estherville
    Posts
    19,595
    Points
    348,285
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 737
    Given: 92

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yards per rush: 3.3 Ave 1.5-7

    Yards per pass: 6.5 Ave 0-15

    All plays: 4.5 3-11

    Points per game: 30 14-35

    College football player? No


    It's all snark from here on out

  14. #14
    Rookie
    Points: 28,495, Level: 51
    Level completed: 86%, Points required for next Level: 155
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    berther48's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Sioux City, Iowa
    Posts
    378
    Points
    28,495
    Level
    51
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 87
    Given: 263

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Yo, go to ESPN,
    go NCAAF,
    find the STATS heading,
    open it ,
    scroll down
    go to Team stats,
    find rushing ,
    go to ave per team,
    copy and paste the column to a Excel sheet ,
    add the averages and divide the sum by 123 ( # of team in FBS)
    then do the same for all the other stats you want.

    Coached football middle school, high school, classes 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A.
    Now retired, Cyclone Fan since 1958.

    Simple.


    Last edited by berther48; 12-07-2013 at 10:04 AM.
    Keepers of the Faith -- All In ...All the Time

    Keepers of the Faith is an alliance for those who are excited, enthusiastic, and optimistic about the direction of our men's basketball program. We reject the notion that one bad loss can derail the incredible progress of the past three years. To join, put this in your signature.

  15. #15
    Addict
    Points: 182,909, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 29.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    clonedude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    7,572
    Points
    182,909
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 461
    Given: 0

    Re: Need some help from Football Experts!

    Quote Originally Posted by berther48 View Post
    Yo, go to ESPN,
    go NCAAF,
    find the STATS heading,
    open it ,
    scroll down
    go to Team stats,
    find rushing ,
    go to ave per team,
    copy and paste the column to a Excel sheet ,
    add the averages and divide the sum by 123 ( # of team in FBS)
    then do the same for all the other stats you want.

    Coached football middle school, high school, classes 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A.
    Now retired, Cyclone Fan since 1958.

    Simple.
    Did you read his post? He doesn't want the actual numbers. He wants everyone's best guesses as to what they think they are?



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: Mediacom 22
  • HOOPS: Iowa State vs. Drake
  • December 20, 2014
  • 04:00 PM