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    SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    I see weather.com has us up to a 70% chance of snow. What do the weather gurus say for amounts?


    Exaggeration is a BILLION times worse than understating.

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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    I read 3-6" on Sunday night for eastern Iowa this morning.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    COLD & SNOW: Dangerous Chill Tonight, Snow Sunday | WHOTV.com

    While the snow will generally be light in intensity, it may last from very early Sunday into early Monday. Combining the length of snowfall with the very cold temperatures, light and fluffy snow will occur, allowing for several inches of accumulation in Central Iowa.




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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Is it that time of year where we get to post weather model maps?

    ****.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by wartknight View Post
    I see weather.com has us up to a 70% chance of snow. What do the weather gurus say for amounts?
    Earl's model says 3"-4" for Des Moines:
    Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by alarson View Post
    Is it that time of year where we get to post weather model maps?

    ****.
    This is the only time of year that I know anyone named Earl.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by alarson View Post
    Is it that time of year where we get to post weather model maps?

    ****.
    Woo hoo!


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    God I hate Earls stuff...there is a lot more to take into account than what that shows.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by AirWalke View Post
    Woo hoo!
    You take that back.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by azepp View Post
    This is the only time of year that I know anyone named Earl.
    If I learned one useful thing the last year, it's that you can't trust anybody named Earl.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Not a huge winter storm by any means. This will be a persistent light snow. But the key with this round is the temperatures we will be at. With surface temps in the teen and a large snow growth zone with this one, this will be light, airy, fluff. And that type of snow accumulates quite well.

    Expect a snow to liquid ratio around 18 to 20:1. Meaning, if you melted the snow down you wouldn't get much liquid as those wet, soggy, back breaking snows we are accustomed to (closer to a 10 to 12:1).

    I'm putting the range at 3-5" in my area (SE MN and N IA). Maybe just a touch more across central Iowa.

    Below is raw model data assuming a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	DSMSnow.JPG 
Views:	72 
Size:	80.3 KB 
ID:	23458


    Last edited by MNCYWX; 12-05-2013 at 09:25 PM.
    "Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one's living at it." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MNCYWX View Post
    I'm putting the range at 3-5" in my area (SE MN and N IA). Maybe just a touch more across central Iowa.
    Also have a bit of a dry surface layer at first to overcome (and a snow eater east wind at first). Going with essentially a 3.5" uniform blanket for now.

    Seems like 3" is a fairly safe bet. Somewhere will likely end up in the 4.5-5" range, but I'm not going to attempt to pin that down yet.



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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by wartknight View Post
    I see weather.com has us up to a 70% chance of snow. What do the weather gurus say for amounts?


    When Prepared, Fear No One.

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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread




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    Re: SUnday 12/8 weather thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MNCYWX View Post
    Not a huge winter storm by any means. This will be a persistent light snow. But the key with this round is the temperatures we will be at. With surface temps in the teen and a large snow growth zone with this one, this will be light, airy, fluff. And that type of snow accumulates quite well.

    Expect a snow to liquid ratio around 18 to 20:1. Meaning, if you melted the snow down you wouldn't get much liquid as those wet, soggy, back breaking snows we are accustomed to (closer to a 10 to 12:1).

    I'm putting the range at 3-5" in my area (SE MN and N IA). Maybe just a touch more across central Iowa.

    Below is raw model data assuming a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	DSMSnow.JPG 
Views:	72 
Size:	80.3 KB 
ID:	23458
    Quote Originally Posted by FDWxMan View Post
    Also have a bit of a dry surface layer at first to overcome (and a snow eater east wind at first). Going with essentially a 3.5" uniform blanket for now.

    Seems like 3" is a fairly safe bet. Somewhere will likely end up in the 4.5-5" range, but I'm not going to attempt to pin that down yet.
    Weather guys trying to politely argue yet engage in brinksmanship...without actually looking like they are doing it...that's what the weather threads are useful for.

    Why don't you guys just come out and say "My model is returning results of your head being up your arse."



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