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    Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    But their defense might be legitimate.

    I know Tech is 5-0, but in another thread I looked at the actual points they were scoring and found that their offense really isn't scoring any more than the average for the teams they were playing. With that in mind, I decided to break it down further. The tables below are based only on games against FBS teams since FCS opponents vary so wildly in terms of talent.

    Starting with SMU:

    Code:
    +-----------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |           | Tech Defense |         |       | Tech Offense |         |       |
    +-----------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |           | Passing      | Rushing | Score | Passing      | Rushing | Score |
    | SMU Game: | 388          | 102     | 23    | 413          | 48      | 41    |
    | SMU Avg   | 372          | 72      | 26.25 | 310          | 153     | 46.50 |
    | Delta:    | 16           | 31      | -3.25 | 103          | -105    | -5.50 |
    +-----------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    On Defense a negative delta number is good for Tech and on Offense a positive delta number is good for Tech. So on defense Tech allowed SMU to gain 16 yards more than their average in passing and 31 yards more than their average in rushing while holding them to 3.25 points below their scoring average against FBS opponents. On offense Tech passed for 103 yards more than SMU's defense ussually gives up but rushed for 105 yards less than SMU's average. They also score 5.5 points less than average. In fact Texas Tech scored the least points against SMU of any FBS team so far.


    TCU:
    Code:
    +-----------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |           | Tech Defense |         |        | Tech Offense |         |       |
    +-----------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |           | Passing      | Rushing | Score  | Passing      | Rushing | Score |
    | TCU Game: | 194          | 207     | 10     | 293          | 43      | 20    |
    | TCU Avg   | 171          | 118     | 25.50  | 243          | 115     | 23.50 |
    | Delta:    | 23           | 89      | -15.50 | 50           | -72     | -3.50 |
    +-----------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    Defensively this is the most worrying game. Tech gave up more than average yardage but held TCU to two touchdowns below their average score. However, TCU's average is inflated by a 48 point game against SMU this isn't going to keep me up at night. TCU totally shut down Tech's running game and held Tech to 20 points, a field goal less than TCU has been allowing on average.

    Texas State:
    Code:
    +------------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |            | Tech Defense |         |        | Tech Offense |         |       |
    +------------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |            | Passing      | Rushing | Score  | Passing      | Rushing | Score |
    | TXST Game: | 133          | 107     | 7      | 434          | 118     | 33    |
    | TXST Avg   | 135          | 139     | 23.75  | 366          | 104     | 29.25 |
    | Delta:     | -2           | -32     | -16.75 | 68           | 14      | 3.75  |
    +------------+--------------+---------+--------+--------------+---------+-------+
    Again, Tech held Texas State to well below their average scoring. But Texas State has one of the worst passing attacks in the country so Tech was able to just stack the box and stuff the run. But again looking at their offense you see that Tech only scored 3.75 points above TXST's average points against. Once again Tech's offense didn't do anything extraordinary.

    Kansas:
    Code:
    +--------------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |              | Tech Defense |         |       | Tech Offense |         |       |
    +--------------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    |              | Passing      | Rushing | Score | Passing      | Rushing | Score |
    | Kansas Game: | 220          | 53      | 16    | 404          | 114     | 54    |
    | Kansas Avg   | 223          | 90      | 14.33 | 290          | 153     | 29.00 |
    | Delta:       | -3           | -37     | 1.67  | 114          | -39     | 25.00 |
    +--------------+--------------+---------+-------+--------------+---------+-------+
    Their one blowout.


    Overall Tech's offense really isn't doing anything above average. Their rushing game is bad so I bet we play Nickel the entire game and only rush 3-4 guys. As long as our DBs can match up against their WRs we should be able to shut them down.

    Defensively they have yet to face a complete team. SMU has a great passing attack but no rushing threat. Texas State has a decent rushing game but no ability to pass. TCU and Kansas are bad at everything offensively. This will be the first time they have to defend against the threat of both the pass and the run so I think we will be very balanced and force them to play honest defense.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Tech's offense against everyone other than SFA- 32.12 yards per possession
    Tech's opponent defenses (FBS) against FBS teams- 30.69 per possession

    Tech's D- 25.7
    Tech's opposing offenses- 24.11

    Tech is doing roughly about where their opponents are anyways right now. They struggle to run the ball which plays into ISU's hand. I do think their D will make it tough on ISU's offense though.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Good analysis. Our offense is a bit strange right now. The skill position talent is outstanding, but the OL is only average, and QB play has been wildly inconsistent - not surprising considering they are true freshmen. We've shown flashes of potential, but we're not exactly firing on all cylinders just yet. That's concerning...but also inspires some optimism for what we can do when it all comes together. (or if Brewer is fully healthy and plays like we think he can).

    One thing to note is that we seem to get off to slow starts and then find our rhythm as the game progresses. So if the 'clones come out blazing and put up some early points, we could be in danger.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    With our defense improving every week I'm confident Tech's offense will have their share of issues. Wally's defense isn't that far from being really good, IMO. Never know what Kliff can do though. Hopefully Tech has more growing pains than Iowa State this week.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Looking like a 35-31 game at first blush.


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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by TTUchris View Post
    Good analysis. Our offense is a bit strange right now. The skill position talent is outstanding, but the OL is only average, and QB play has been wildly inconsistent - not surprising considering they are true freshmen. We've shown flashes of potential, but we're not exactly firing on all cylinders just yet. That's concerning...but also inspires some optimism for what we can do when it all comes together. (or if Brewer is fully healthy and plays like we think he can).

    One thing to note is that we seem to get off to slow starts and then find our rhythm as the game progresses. So if the 'clones come out blazing and put up some early points, we could be in danger.
    Our QB play has been wildly incosistent? This is the first time in a while we have started the same QB for more than 4 games I believe. I'd rather have a QB with 60% completion and insanely high TD/INT ratio than 70% and 'ception city.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by Skidoosh View Post
    Our QB play has been wildly incosistent? This is the first time in a while we have started the same QB for more than 4 games I believe. I'd rather have a QB with 60% completion and insanely high TD/INT ratio than 70% and 'ception city.
    I believe he was referring to Tech's QB play.


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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    David Ubben is Tweeting that QB Baker Mayfield suffered no structural damage to his knee versus KU and, during this morning's B12 press conference, Kingsbury didn't dismiss the possibility that Mayfield starts against ISU. So take that Clones! Good luck game planning for two wildly inconsistent freshman QBs this week!



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by Sammy11 View Post
    Tech's offense against everyone other than SFA- 32.12 yards per possession
    Tech's opponent defenses (FBS) against FBS teams- 30.69 per possession

    Tech's D- 25.7
    Tech's opposing offenses- 24.11

    Tech is doing roughly about where their opponents are anyways right now. They struggle to run the ball which plays into ISU's hand. I do think their D will make it tough on ISU's offense though.
    Interesting. I also found this analysis interesting... Kansas Football: Reviewing the Defensive Performance against Texas Tech

    It's true that Tech's yards per possession ended up below the NCAA average when counting all drives on Saturday. However, as Newell points out, Texas Tech had great field position throughout the day. On two of their possessions, they started at the 16 and the 4 yard lines. Subtracting those drives because they're guaranteed to hurt the average regardless of outcome, ups the average to 33 yards per possession. Not a big change but I think there is one more adjustment we can do that gives an even better look at the defensive performance in terms of yards per possession. That adjustment is eliminating the possessions that began in the 4th quarter entirely. It was garbage time against Tech's second and third string players. During those 4 drives, Tech ran 13 plays and gained 13 yards. After these adjustments, Tech's yards per possession jumps all the way up to 47 yards. Yards per play after taking out the 4th quarter possessions goes up to 6 yards.

    The other curious thing I noticed from his box score were the averages shown for yards/carry and yards/attempt. On the yards per carry, Newell's box score has 3.0 and I'm not clear where he gets this number. Looking at the traditional box score, Tech gained 114 yards on 43 carries. That's not accurate because it is counting sack losses as negative rushing yards. Newell's box score correctly attributes that to the passing game. The traditional box score also includes a -43 yards attributed to "team". If we're going to adjust the box score, I don't think we can reasonably conclude horrific snaps are attributable to the defense. So after accounting for that, we see 4.3 yards per rush. Not terrible but nowhere near as good as 3.0 would lead you to believe.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by Skidoosh View Post
    Our QB play has been wildly incosistent? This is the first time in a while we have started the same QB for more than 4 games I believe. I'd rather have a QB with 60% completion and insanely high TD/INT ratio than 70% and 'ception city.

    ha, I did the same thing. I was wondering who on earth thought we were starting true freshman at QB! That comment made me go back and look and realize it was a Tech fan posting that!



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by KillBilly View Post
    David Ubben is Tweeting that QB Baker Mayfield suffered no structural damage to his knee versus KU and, during this morning's B12 press conference, Kingsbury didn't dismiss the possibility that Mayfield starts against ISU. So take that Clones! Good luck game planning for two wildly inconsistent freshman QBs this week!
    The latest TTech depth chart has Brewer ahead of Webb. Make that three (insert appropriate adjective here) QBs to prepare for. We're screwed!


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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    I bet we open up the game with a play action pass. They know they are weak against the run and will expect us to start out seeing what we can do against it. And we will want to keep them guessing so they can't sell out against the run later.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    We arguably have the best D-coordinator in the Big 12. We'll probably hold tech below their average at the very least. The question, as always, is whether our offense can put up some points.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    I'm not actually concerned about Tech's offense so much as I am putting points on the board ourselves.

    To Judoka's point, they give up yards, but their red zone performance thus far has been outstanding. 3rd nationally allowing 6 scores on 11 trips. Those scores were four field goals and two touchdowns.

    Against Big XII competition (TCU and Kansas) they've allowed three scores on four trips with two field goals and one touchdown.

    The yards will be there on Saturday but it's up to Mess and company to have a few packaged plays to get into the end zone once inside the 20. Think of Bibbs corner route vs Tulsa as a good example of that. Same with Jarvis' TD over the middle. Find the weak point and exploit them on it.



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    Re: Tech's Offense is a lot less scary than they seem

    Quote Originally Posted by cycloneG View Post
    The latest TTech depth chart has Brewer ahead of Webb. Make that three (insert appropriate adjective here) QBs to prepare for. We're screwed!
    So you face one or all of 2 wildly inconsistent freshmen and/or a more experienced/superior but very rusty sophomore. That's a whole lot of mediocrity to prepare for. Coach Rhoades* will be bald by game time.

    FYI, you can ignore Tech's depth chart for the most part. It won't change all season unless a particular position experiences several players lost to injury.

    *Just realized I've been misspelling his name. Sorry about that. No disrespect intended.



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