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  1. #16
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by CyFan61 View Post
    I don't disagree with the bolded (Ponder has a lot to prove), but you and Erik4Cy seem awfully dismissive of Peterson's ability when is undoubtedly the best RB in the NFL. He accomplished a lot with an even less talented team last year than he will have this year.
    I'm not being dismissive, I'm being realistic. He nearly broke Dickerson's record. That's an out of this world, season long performance. I don't think it's that crazy to think it won't happen again.



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    X-Factors (IMO) for each team:

    Packers: Eddie Lacy - Somebody has to step up and give the Pack a running game. Aaron Rodgers' arm can't last all season.

    Vikings: Christian Ponder - He how has some WR weapons, but will he be able to settle down and overcome his (so far) sloppy preseason?

    Bears: Mark Trestman - Will a new, offensively-minded coach work to their advantage, or will Jay Cutler cry to mommy again?

    Lions: Offensive Talent - It's all there, but can it stay healthy?

    MY PREDICTIONS
    Packers: 12-4
    Vikings: 9-7
    Bears: 8-8
    Lions: 8-8

    MY "THE VIKING FAN THAT I AM" PREDICTIONS
    Vikings: 16-0
    blah blah blah...
    Packers: 0-16




    Cyclones | Vikings | Royals | Red Wings

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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Huge Vikings fan here. But until somebody proves otherwise, the Packers are the best team in the North, and it really kills me to say that. 2nd through 4th are all up for grabs, but Green Bay is the top dog. That said, I hope Rodgers sets the record for sacks taken by a qb, and the defense is the bottom of the league.


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  4. #19
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by CyFan61 View Post
    Why? Do you think it was a fluke? AD is every bit as good as he showed last season
    the NFL was founded in 1920. That's 94 years this season. And even though we didn't keep rushing statistics until 1932, Beatie Feathers 1004 yards in 1934 was considered untouchable for a decade following. In that time, seven players have had 2000 yard rushing seasons (with the AFL giving us zero).

    Over the history of the NFL (since 1932), the leading rusher has averaged 1350 yards, with the 20 year average being 1772. The 10 year average is 1802. Not a single time in NFL history has someone rushed for 2000+ yards two seasons in their career. In the last 20 years, we've only had 3 players repeat as the NFL's leading rusher in consecutive years. Adrian Peterson has a career rushing average of 1475 (1576 if you eliminate his injury season the year before last). Ignoring his injured season, Adrain Peterson's rushing average before last year was 1446.

    So, the numbers point to several things. 1) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not regular. Only 8% of NFL seasons produce 2000 yard rushers. 2) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not repeatable. No one has gotten two in their career. 3) Adrian Peterson rushing for 2000 yards was a drastic increase in his rushing output based on history. His 2097 yards last season was 45% higher than his previous non-injured season output average.

    So, to answer your question as to why we think it was a fluke? Math, maybe?


    Last edited by Gnomeborg; 08-20-2013 at 04:31 PM. Reason: forgot AP's rookie season somehow in my math figurings. I'm an idiot.

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  5. #20
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    People really watched that QB play in that vikings game and think that's an above 500 team?



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by Gnomeborg View Post
    the NFL was founded in 1920. That's 94 years this season. And even though we didn't keep rushing statistics until 1932, Beatie Feathers 1004 yards in 1934 was considered untouchable for a decade following. In that time, seven players have had 2000 yard rushing seasons (with the AFL giving us zero).

    Over the history of the NFL (since 1932), the leading rusher has averaged 1350 yards, with the 20 year average being 1772. The 10 year average is 1802. Not a single time in NFL history has someone rushed for 2000+ yards two seasons in their career. In the last 20 years, we've only had 3 players repeat as the NFL's leading rusher in consecutive years. Adrian Peterson has a career rushing average of 1502 (1635 if you eliminate his injury season the year before last). Ignoring his injured season, Adrain Peterson's rushing average before last year was 1480.

    So, the numbers point to several things. 1) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not regular. Only 8% of NFL seasons produce 2000 yard rushers. 2) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not repeatable. No one has gotten two in their career. 3) Adrian Peterson rushing for 2000 yards was a drastic increase in his rushing output based on history. His 2097 yards last season was 41% higher than his previous non-injured season output average.

    So, to answer your question as to why we think it was a fluke? Math, maybe?
    Math is fun.



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    As a Packers fan, I always worry about defense and need for a backup quarterback. O line also kind of dicey.



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Oh yeah and Greg Jennings can EABOD



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by Gnomeborg View Post
    the NFL was founded in 1920. That's 94 years this season. And even though we didn't keep rushing statistics until 1932, Beatie Feathers 1004 yards in 1934 was considered untouchable for a decade following. In that time, seven players have had 2000 yard rushing seasons (with the AFL giving us zero).

    Over the history of the NFL (since 1932), the leading rusher has averaged 1350 yards, with the 20 year average being 1772. The 10 year average is 1802. Not a single time in NFL history has someone rushed for 2000+ yards two seasons in their career. In the last 20 years, we've only had 3 players repeat as the NFL's leading rusher in consecutive years. Adrian Peterson has a career rushing average of 1502 (1635 if you eliminate his injury season the year before last). Ignoring his injured season, Adrain Peterson's rushing average before last year was 1480.

    So, the numbers point to several things. 1) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not regular. Only 8% of NFL seasons produce 2000 yard rushers. 2) 2000 yard rushing seasons are not repeatable. No one has gotten two in their career. 3) Adrian Peterson rushing for 2000 yards was a drastic increase in his rushing output based on history. His 2097 yards last season was 41% higher than his previous non-injured season output average.

    So, to answer your question as to why we think it was a fluke? Math, maybe?
    That's fine, but saying the Vikings need Peterson to rush for 2000 yards again to be good is just as stupid as thinking he'll do it again. I don't think he'll get near it because he wont get the same number of carries. I can definitely see him being close to the 6 yard/ rush average he had last year though.

    My hope is that an improved passing game will take some pressure off him. Ponder was definitely adequate, and the Vikings were winning games before Harvin was injured, and before Peterson went on his tear the 2nd half of the season.



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by Rabbuk View Post
    People really watched that QB play in that vikings game and think that's an above 500 team?
    Paired with the fact that the first team offense has yet to score ANY points so far. Regardless, I remain optimistic and am allowed to use the "it's just the preseason" excuse.




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  11. #26
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by isutrevman View Post
    That's fine, but saying the Vikings need Peterson to rush for 2000 yards again to be good is just as stupid as thinking he'll do it again. I don't think he'll get near it because he wont get the same number of carries. I can definitely see him being close to the 6 yard/ rush average he had last year though.

    My hope is that an improved passing game will take some pressure off him. Ponder was definitely adequate, and the Vikings were winning games before Harvin was injured, and before Peterson went on his tear the 2nd half of the season.
    I wouldn't go that far, but I see your point.



  12. #27
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by isutrevman View Post
    That's fine, but saying the Vikings need Peterson to rush for 2000 yards again to be good is just as stupid as thinking he'll do it again. I don't think he'll get near it because he wont get the same number of carries. I can definitely see him being close to the 6 yard/ rush average he had last year though.

    My hope is that an improved passing game will take some pressure off him. Ponder was definitely adequate, and the Vikings were winning games before Harvin was injured, and before Peterson went on his tear the 2nd half of the season.
    I haven't said they need him to rush for 2,000 yards again. In fact, they most certainly don't. AP's yards/carry went up only 1 yard over his previous average, while his carries per game went up by almost 5. That's like 68 more times he got tackled (he did not increase or decrease his number of touchdowns... 12 seems to be what you should expect from him) over the course of the season. The Vikings need AP to not be the only weapon they have if they want to start winning more games.

    But the question was "why do you think it was a fluke?" in response to a poster saying that AP's rushing output was, in fact, a non-repeatable fluke. I replied by showing why it is logical to think that AP's rushing numbers from last year are, in fact, a fluke.

    The Vikings need to have an offense that can take advantage of a work horse that can give you 1500 yards per year, rather than an offense that needs that 1500 yards per year to hit 2097 yards a second year in a row.



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  13. #28
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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Threads like this get me pumped for the NFL season to start. What makes this division great is that all teams have had success within the last few years, and are certainly capable of being playoff teams.

    That being said, I think it's still the Packers division to lose. They have the most proven QB in Rodgers and should have an actual running game with the additions of Lacy and Franklin. If the young talent in their defense can continue to improve, GB should be a legit Super Bowl contender...but I'm not completely sold on that happening yet.

    Another concern I have as a Packers fan is GB's schedule outside of the division. They'll have some tough road tests at SF, CIN, BAL, NYG, and DAL to go along with those NFC North games. I'm thinking somewhere between 10-13 wins for the Packers, and until another team can consistently perform, I don't see how anyone else would be considered the favorite.

    You could definitely make a case that this is the best division in the NFL right now. Should shape to be a very interesting season regardless of what ends up actually happening.



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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Not a fan of any teams, but here is my prediction

    1. Green Bay (12-4). Aaron Rodgers, enough said.

    2. Chicago (10-6). Defense, defense, defense. Plus, they have made a couple slight upgrades at O-line.

    3. Minnesota (9-7). I think AP had a flukish season last year, and I do not think Ponder improves enough, even with all the weapons.

    4. Detroit (9-7). Reggie Bush is a good addition, but Detroit cannot keep up with the others in the North.


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    Re: NFL: Predictions on NFC North this year??

    Quote Originally Posted by ISpyCy View Post
    X-Factors (IMO) for each team:

    Packers: Eddie Lacy - Somebody has to step up and give the Pack a running game. Aaron Rodgers' arm can't last all season.

    Vikings: Christian Ponder - He how has some WR weapons, but will he be able to settle down and overcome his (so far) sloppy preseason?

    Bears: Mark Trestman - Will a new, offensively-minded coach work to their advantage, or will Jay Cutler cry to mommy again?

    Lions: Offensive Talent - It's all there, but can it stay healthy?

    MY PREDICTIONS
    Packers: 12-4
    Vikings: 9-7
    Bears: 8-8
    Lions: 8-8

    MY "THE VIKING FAN THAT I AM" PREDICTIONS
    Vikings: 16-0
    blah blah blah...
    Packers: 0-16
    Pirate hooker! I don't disagree with you on these. Although, I'm not sure if there is a complete favorite at the RB yet. Very well could be Lacy, Franklin, or Harris (still has speed, just kind of little guy, not sure on his durability). The OL always worries me on their health. I hope the WR's stay healthy as well, because I don't think we have quite the depth in years past. It's hard to believe Ponder hasn't gotten out of his funk yet. He probably has the best talent around him he's ever had this year so I think he may have a pretty good year. This coming from a Packers fan. kjlsjdKL;ASDJksld;jKDS
    Quote Originally Posted by BCoffClone125 View Post
    Threads like this get me pumped for the NFL season to start. What makes this division great is that all teams have had success within the last few years, and are certainly capable of being playoff teams.

    That being said, I think it's still the Packers division to lose. They have the most proven QB in Rodgers and should have an actual running game with the additions of Lacy and Franklin. If the young talent in their defense can continue to improve, GB should be a legit Super Bowl contender...but I'm not completely sold on that happening yet.

    Another concern I have as a Packers fan is GB's schedule outside of the division. They'll have some tough road tests at SF, CIN, BAL, NYG, and DAL to go along with those NFC North games. I'm thinking somewhere between 10-13 wins for the Packers, and until another team can consistently perform, I don't see how anyone else would be considered the favorite.

    You could definitely make a case that this is the best division in the NFL right now. Should shape to be a very interesting season regardless of what ends up actually happening.
    As their offense makes them a contender every year, I just see our D needs to be the caliber it was 2010. It just baffles me some of the hyped up and talented names they have on the field, yet the D under performs and gives up a lot of points. Hopefully Perry steps up this year as well as the secondary. I think some of the younger corners did get some good experience last year though. I agree with the 10-13 wins. I have them pegged at 11 and getting the tie-breaker over the Vikings. Lions come in at 3rd with 8-8 and bears at 7-9.



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