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    Football Studyhall Week 1 Predictions

    A nice, unbiased, data/analysis driven prediction. The link includes predicted wins for the season, and winning probability for all of the Week 1 games. He's got ISU at 5.95 wins, and a 93% probability of winning against UNI. I know others will bring it up, so Iowa is predicted to get 4.75 wins and has a 12.5% win probability against NIU.

    Week 1 Game Predictions - Football Study Hall


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: Football Studyhall Week 1 Predictions

    To clarify, these predictions are made on the previous 6 weeks worth of data. That is, these predictions are calculated using data from the last 6 games from last year (I don't recall now if bowl games are included, but I think they are). So this does not take into account the unquantifiable factors like returning players, injuries, scheme changes, player development, etc etc. But these numbers should be a good baseline from which to adjust according to what you think about the unquantifiable factors.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: Football Studyhall Week 1 Predictions

    I think Iowa is down as much as the next guy. But I'm pretty sure their chance at beating Northern Illinois is a lot better than 1 in 8.

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    To clarify, these predictions are made on the previous 6 weeks worth of data. That is, these predictions are calculated using data from the last 6 games from last year.
    Oh, that explains it then.



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    Re: Football Studyhall Week 1 Predictions

    Seems like this system would be pretty good from the midway point of a season.

    Too schewed at the beginning.



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