A new football stat
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    A new football stat

    Guys,

    I posted this to my site yesterday. It is a pretty large scope project that isn't completely proven out yet but I think it is original enough that it would interest a lot of you. The basic premise is that averages are skewed and I wanted to find a different way to evaluate offenses and defenses.

    This is far from conclusive at this point but I do plan to do more detailed analyses on a more micro level over the summer months.

    Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.

    Four Yard Minimum |




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    Re: A new football stat

    Wow, impressive work. Thanks for sharing.

    The coaches have been saying it for years, and the charts at the bottom back it up, ISU has got to get more big plays on offense. Almost six plays below the CFB average and 13.5 below the Big 12 average.


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    Re: A new football stat

    Quote Originally Posted by sdillon500 View Post
    Wow, impressive work. Thanks for sharing.

    The coaches have been saying it for years, and the charts at the bottom back it up, ISU has got to get more big plays on offense. Almost six plays below the CFB average and 13.5 below the Big 12 average.
    Just as important or probably more importantly, they need less plays for <4 yards.

    That makes me think that it could be an offensive line problem. A good RB can turn 0 into 4, but I think it is more likely for them to turn 4 into 15. If they can't get 4 that is likely an unfortunate play call or bad blocking.

    Who knows, if we could block for 4 yards more often those big plays could go up way more than you would expect.

    Coach K and Wimberly make me excited and optimistic about that happening.



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    Re: A new football stat

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhoadhoused View Post
    Just as important or probably more importantly, they need less plays for <4 yards.

    That makes me think that it could be an offensive line problem. A good RB can turn 0 into 4, but I think it is more likely for them to turn 4 into 15. If they can't get 4 that is likely an unfortunate play call or bad blocking.

    Who knows, if we could block for 4 yards more often those big plays could go up way more than you would expect.

    Coach K and Wimberly make me excited and optimistic about that happening.
    Oh, most definitely. How many times did the RB just get stuffed at the point of attack last year?

    And the 37.5% conversion from 3rd and less than three yards? Doesn't really imply a strong running game.


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    Re: A new football stat

    Quote Originally Posted by sdillon500 View Post
    Oh, most definitely. How many times did the RB just get stuffed at the point of attack last year?

    And the 37.5% conversion from 3rd and less than three yards? Doesn't really imply a strong running game.
    Yep. And as much as it pains me to say it I think having Woody as a short yardage back can hurt us. He is powerful but there are obvious problems with having a slower back when the other team knows it is coming. I think a more balanced back would allow us to be more versatile and unpredictable.

    Obviously there are many other reasons for that stat but that is the most obvious for me. If he gets a head of steam, he is a monster and will get 2-5 more yards after contact, but that is about it. I am really looking forward to him as an H-back and getting the ball in scenarios where it isn't just an obvious short yardage situation.



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    Re: A new football stat

    I like your charts at the end. Can you split them out between passing and rushing? I'm wondering if a poor passing game is inflating the number of 0 yardage plays due to a lot of incomplete passes. I'd also be interested to see sacks taken out if possible - I bet most of the big losses were sacks rather than runs.


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    Re: A new football stat

    Pretty much mathematically proved that 3rd and longs are a b****



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    Re: A new football stat

    Key Stat: Lower zero yard plays by at least 75 total plays from ~225/season to around 150.

    That is 6 1/4 fewer zero yard plays per game.

    Last year's average zero yard plays per game was a total of approximately 19.

    So drop zero yard plays from 19 to 12 to 13 per game.

    A zero yards per play stat should be the next chart pursued. Clearly the most significant stat at least for ISU but looks like a key indicator based on KSU and Oregon's lower than average.

    One of those "Well, Duh!" kind of stats but one that isn't ever shown.


    Last edited by ShopTalk; 04-18-2013 at 06:49 PM.

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    Re: A new football stat

    Quote Originally Posted by ShopTalk View Post
    Key Stat: Lower zero yard plays by at least 75 total plays from ~225/season to around 150.

    That is 6 1/4 fewer zero yard plays per game.

    Last year's average zero yard plays per game was a total of approximately 19.

    So drop zero yard plays from 19 to 12 to 13 per game.

    A zero yards per play stat should be the next chart pursued. Clearly the most significant stat at least for ISU but looks like a key indicator based on KSU and Oregon's lower than average.

    One of those "Well, Duh!" kind of stats but one that isn't ever shown.
    Another "well, duh!" statement is this: The easiest way to lower the number of zero yardage plays per game is to get that completion percentage up. I would wager that the vast majority of those were incomplete passes rather than runs stuffed for no gain.


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    Re: A new football stat

    They were both run and pass, and a breakdown of runs and passes for zero yards would be helpful as well.

    And yes, you are correct that is another key stat.



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    Re: A new football stat

    Nice work, Sheldon.


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    Re: A new football stat

    As and Oline coach I am a huge proponent of first down efficiency. Seems like about every coach is. But what is more important than that IMO is 2nd down efficiency. Getting half of whatever is remaining for the 1st down. Too often it seems like you see a coach get an efficient first down play, but then take a deep shot or dink around too much on 2nd down and O is still stuck on 3rd and 4+ which is a very tough conversion.


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    Re: A new football stat

    Good job with your analysis. It's hard to argue with statistics. I would like to see another new stat: elapsed seconds until passing the line of scrimmage. With our read option, the ball is sent 8 yards backwards to the QB, the RB runs 5 yards sideways to get in position for the handoff, the QB waits 1 second to read before handing off, then the RB continues sideways for 5 more yards, then the RB cuts upfield for 8 yards until he finally reaches the line of scrimmage. Our O-line stay on their blocks for about 0.5 seconds, so the entire defense has time to pursue the ball carrier before they can get upfield. Keep in mind, we don't throw downfield, and we don't use the flanker reverse (like West Virginia), so we are stuck with a predictable and slow-developing offense.



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    Re: A new football stat

    A few bloggers have started logging what they call Success Rate, similar to Wartknight's efficiency metric. Every play is a success or failure for the offense (reversed for defense). On 1st & 10, success is gaining 4+ yards. On 2nd down, success is gaining 50%+ of the remaining yardage. On 3rd or 4th down, success is picking up the 1st down. It's not a stat that gives a complete picture of the offense, but helps to describe one component of it.


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    Re: A new football stat

    Interesting way to parse things. You are right average doesn't mean too much on sustaining drives. A better statistical number for sustaining drives would be the median. It is the value half the plays are above and half below. A median above 4 yards on the first two downs should come closer to indicating offensive success. I'd tend to put third down in a different category. Getting two yard on third down when you need one still keeps the drive alive. Likewise getting 9 when you need 10 is a fail.



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