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    log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    I'm a big fan of KenPom's log5 odds for the men's NCAA tournament, so I decided to quickly put together a sheet for the women's Spokane Bracket based on Sagarin's Predictor ratings. This isn't technically a log5 — you can see why (and what I'm doing) here — but the results are the same format as what KenPom puts together.

    Anyway:

    Code:
    Seed    Team              SagPr    Rd32   Swt16 Elite8 Final4
    1       Stanford          97.71  98.72%  85.99% 68.38% 49.49%
    16      Tulsa             71.65   1.28%   0.11%  0.01%  0.00%
    8       Michigan          83.33  38.17%   4.10%  1.23%  0.29%
    9       Villanova         86.25  61.83%   9.80%  4.01%  1.32%
    5       Iowa State        89.63  50.59%  32.07%  9.33%  4.21%
    12      Gonzaga           89.48  49.41%  31.07%  8.90%  3.97%
    4       Georgia           87.23  87.30%  35.70%  8.09%  2.94%
    13      Montana           76.01  12.70%   1.16%  0.06%  0.00%
    3       Penn State        93.42  92.50%  68.51% 45.14% 20.53%
    14      Cal Poly          78.07   7.50%   1.46%  0.22%  0.02%
    6       LSU               84.31  35.99%   8.41%  2.76%  0.51%
    11      Green Bay         87.85  64.01%  21.62%  9.90%  2.76%
    7       Texas Tech        85.05  46.08%  14.67%  4.18%  0.85%
    10      South Florida     86.01  53.92%  18.90%  5.97%  1.36%
    2       California        90.82  94.30%  65.72% 31.79% 11.74%
    15      Fresno State      74.33   5.70%   0.70%  0.04%  0.00%


    Last edited by Dale; 03-18-2013 at 11:02 PM.

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    What this tells me is that we got a tough first round game.



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    It's BS that we have to play the 12 seed on their home court.



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    A good 12 seed at that!



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by klamath632 View Post
    It's BS that we have to play the 12 seed on their home court.
    Unfortunately, that is part of the women's bracketing. What is ridiculous is that this is the THIRD year in a row that Gonzaga has played at home to open the tourney, and in the past two years has upset better seeds. PLUS the TWO years before that they played in Seattle and also had an effective home court advantage. Before that, they won a WNIT game at home and then lost on the road at Boulder.

    So Gonzaga has been greatly favored with sites in the NCAA tourney for 5 years running, usually counter to seeding integrity.

    THAT is something the NCAA has control over. Who cares if they have one of the only good fan bases in the area. Who cares if there are not very many west coast teams to compete for sites. They have repeatedly been given an advantage in site selection and placement.

    Time for ISU to end this particular madness!

    (And Gonzaga is not a true 12 seed.)



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    I was wondering how Gonzaga got to play in Spokane (conceivably) through the first four rounds, since I remember the NCAA taking away home regional sites several years ago. I looked up that Washington State is the host school for the regional games in Spokane, so that's Gonzaga's way around those rules. It's like Fairfield hosting games that UCONN isn't awarded so they can still play in their own backyard. Also, it's not really any different that Northern Iowa hosting the regional at Des Moines last year so that Iowa State would have been eligible to play at the Well, had they advanced.


    All people who make sweepingly generalized, stupid, uninformed comments are idiots.

    (maybe)

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    How did we get sent to the west regional for both men's and women's?


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
    Let my Fred's Four Horsemen ride: Georges, Hogue, Nader, and McKay.

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale View Post
    I'm a big fan of KenPom's log5 odds for the men's NCAA tournament, so I decided to quickly put together a sheet for the women's Spokane Bracket based on Sagarin's Predictor ratings. This isn't technically a log5 — you can see why (and what I'm doing) here — but the results are the same format as what KenPom puts together.

    Anyway:

    Code:
    Seed    Team              SagPr    Rd32   Swt16 Elite8 Final4
    1       Stanford          97.71  98.72%  85.99% 68.38% 49.49%
    16      Tulsa             71.65   1.28%   0.11%  0.01%  0.00%
    8       Michigan          83.33  38.17%   4.10%  1.23%  0.29%
    9       Villanova         86.25  61.83%   9.80%  4.01%  1.32%
    5       Iowa State        89.63  50.59%  32.07%  9.33%  4.21%
    12      Gonzaga           89.48  49.41%  31.07%  8.90%  3.97%
    4       Georgia           87.23  87.30%  35.70%  8.09%  2.94%
    13      Montana           76.01  12.70%   1.16%  0.06%  0.00%
    3       Penn State        93.42  92.50%  68.51% 45.14% 20.53%
    14      Cal Poly          78.07   7.50%   1.46%  0.22%  0.02%
    6       LSU               84.31  35.99%   8.41%  2.76%  0.51%
    11      Green Bay         87.85  64.01%  21.62%  9.90%  2.76%
    7       Texas Tech        85.05  46.08%  14.67%  4.18%  0.85%
    10      South Florida     86.01  53.92%  18.90%  5.97%  1.36%
    2       California        90.82  94.30%  65.72% 31.79% 11.74%
    15      Fresno State      74.33   5.70%   0.70%  0.04%  0.00%
    For the men, kenpomlog5 has Florida overrated...


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
    Let my Fred's Four Horsemen ride: Georges, Hogue, Nader, and McKay.

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    As long as attendance is more important than sport integrity, WBB will continue to be heavily criticized, not dramatically increase parity, nor draw new fans.



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by Buster28 View Post
    I was wondering how Gonzaga got to play in Spokane (conceivably) through the first four rounds, since I remember the NCAA taking away home regional sites several years ago. I looked up that Washington State is the host school for the regional games in Spokane, so that's Gonzaga's way around those rules. It's like Fairfield hosting games that UCONN isn't awarded so they can still play in their own backyard. Also, it's not really any different that Northern Iowa hosting the regional at Des Moines last year so that Iowa State would have been eligible to play at the Well, had they advanced.
    EXCEPT that last year ISU was in the Kingston region, not the DSM region. So we hosted, but WE THOUGHT as a result of our higher seed did not get the potential track to Des Moines. And we were even a 10 seed compared to Gonzaga's 12 this year.

    The apparent repeated favoritism to Gonzaga thickens even more...

    (Gonzaga is not UConn!)


    Last edited by cydney; 03-19-2013 at 12:48 PM.

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by twistedredbird View Post
    As long as attendance is more important than sport integrity, WBB will continue to be heavily criticized, not dramatically increase parity, nor draw new fans.
    Largely true. However, I would say that Gonzaga's kickback for their attendance seems to be highly unusual -- given their typical seeding, the repeated hosting, the regional placement, etc. If ISU were to have gotten similar treatment given our #2 national attendance, we would have been put in DSM region last year, we would get more hosting opportunities, and we would have been put somewhere in driving distance this year.


    Last edited by cydney; 03-19-2013 at 12:51 PM.

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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    For the men, kenpomlog5 has Florida overrated...
    Any computer rankings system is going to end up with a couple teams that intuitively seem misplaced. Even Ken says KenPom is overranking Florida and Pitt.



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by cydney View Post
    Largely true. However, I would say that Gonzaga's kickback for their attendance seems to be highly unusual -- given their typical seeding, the repeated hosting, the regional placement, etc. If ISU were to have gotten similar treatment given our #2 national attendance, we would have been put in DSM region last year, we would get more hosting opportunities, and we would have been put somewhere in driving distance this year.

    A few more things to consider why ISU couldn't submit to host every year. This year Hilton is hosting the Big 12 Gymnastics on Saturday and would conflict with hosting Women's Basketball 1st and 2nd round and ISU is hosting the NCAA Wrestling in Des Moines which both require staff time and effort.

    ISU has been hosting 1st and 2nd rounds since they have bid them out every even year since 2004 except 2006 so I would look for them to host in 2014.



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    Slight change from my original, because I didn't give home court advantage to anyone in the first two rounds except Gonzaga. Doesn't affect ISU's chances much, though.

    Code:
    Seed    Team              SagPr    Rd32   Swt16 Elite8 Final4
    1       Stanford          97.71  99.15%  90.37% 71.86% 52.46%
    16      Tulsa             71.65   0.85%   0.07%  0.00%  0.00%
    8       Michigan          83.33  38.17%   2.78%  0.84%  0.21%
    9       Villanova         86.25  61.83%   6.78%  2.77%  0.94%
    5       Iowa State        89.63  50.59%  32.07%  8.72%  4.02%
    12      Gonzaga           89.48  49.41%  31.07%  8.31%  3.79%
    4       Georgia           87.23  87.30%  35.70%  7.45%  2.79%
    13      Montana           76.01  12.70%   1.16%  0.05%  0.00%
    3       Penn State        93.42  92.50%  65.81% 44.12% 19.49%
    14      Cal Poly          78.07   7.50%   1.25%  0.19%  0.01%
    6       LSU               84.31  47.80%  15.31%  5.21%  0.92%
    11      Green Bay         87.85  52.20%  17.63%  8.32%  2.22%
    7       Texas Tech        85.05  58.09%  24.55%  7.33%  1.42%
    10      South Florida     86.01  41.91%  14.69%  4.84%  1.05%
    2       California        90.82  94.30%  60.20% 29.95% 10.68%
    15      Fresno State      74.33   5.70%   0.56%  0.04%  0.00%



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    Re: log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    And here's the OKC Regional, where we can all be grateful we weren't placed. Baylor's a massive favorite, and Tennessee picks up the region half the rest of the time.

    If you take a look at 5 seed Louisville here, they play their first two games on their home court and have a Sagarin rating better than ours, but their odds of making the Final 4 are less. Them's the breaks in Baylor's bracket.

    Code:
    Seed    Team               SagPr    Rd32   Swt16  Elite8  Final4
    1       Baylor            107.47  99.96%  96.49%  89.74%  80.78%
    16      Prairie View A&M   62.67   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
    8       Florida State      87.54  53.85%   2.02%   0.90%   0.32%
    9       Princeton          86.58  46.15%   1.49%   0.62%   0.20%
    5       Louisville         90.52  90.31%  72.20%   7.38%   3.45%
    12      Middle Tenn.       79.73   9.69%   3.15%   0.07%   0.01%
    4       Purdue             85.92  78.62%  22.26%   1.25%   0.38%
    13      Liberty            78.29  21.38%   2.39%   0.04%   0.00%
    3       UCLA                87.6  95.27%  58.99%  18.26%   1.70%
    14      Stetson            70.69   4.73%   0.37%   0.01%   0.00%
    6       Oklahoma           88.86  65.25%  29.67%  10.47%   1.13%
    11      Central Michigan   82.09  34.75%  10.97%   1.71%   0.08%
    7       Syracuse           90.64  88.85%  26.52%  16.55%   2.19%
    10      Creighton          78.15  11.15%   0.68%   0.12%   0.00%
    2       Tennessee          93.83  97.86%  72.63%  52.86%   9.76%
    15      Oral Roberts       73.68   2.14%   0.17%   0.02%   0.00%


    Last edited by Dale; 03-19-2013 at 01:42 PM.

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